As I kinda suspected, the MODDED plays with the Kelly Criterion is working out better than the other method(s), but there are still some instances where we massively disagree with the book’s lines. I suspect they weight strength of schedule differently than I do. If we consistently miss on them I’ll reevaluate, but (fingers crossed) so far so good.
Predicting sides has been doing okay, but we’re losing on playing too many underdogs. Especially the big massive dogs!
Ambush Vs Apeks
Prima Vs Defusekids
Don’t touch this game! Two unranked teams with at least one player that has no stat lines. The model tried to normalize it, but wow 83.47% certainty on a +240 ‘Dog? Either Vegas or the model is way off.
March 16, 2020
(updated March 16, 2020)
dominated the scene and went 10-4. Flat betting all favorites would have netted
you -$24.08 with flat betting $50. When favorites dominate the day so much it
is hard to make a profit. Let’s break down the methods and see what we learned.
Degen Differential loved the underdogs a bit too much. Degen Diff went 3-9 and -$219 for a flat
did a bit better and went 4-7 -$129.00 flat betting. Modded’s weights towards
liking favorites more seems like the more sensible move.
Kelly Method with the Modded Plays turned a profit. Going 4-7, but weighting
your bets using Kelly turned a profit of $3.54. It may not sound like much but
gaining 3% plus on your bankroll is a pretty decent return.
Let’s break down today. Each of these three matches are best 2/3 maps.
Team Vitality Vs GODSENT
This is a match I’d avoid. The fifth player in Team Vitality has zero stats. I’m assuming that Team Vitality wouldn’t pick up a bum off the street to join them so I weighted the 5th player as an average Vitality player.
Astralis Vs Ninjas in Pajamas
The numbers say you have to back Ninjas in Pajamas based on payout. You can’t back -1400 plays and expect to make money long term.
March 15, 2020
(updated March 25, 2020)
This is going to be fun!? Let’s break down what we’re doing here.
Here’s an example of the chart:
First up is the name of the two teams: Singularity vs pro100, with me so far?
Next up is the freshest line I can grab. As you know the lines like to move based on the money coming in. In this case, Singularity is +150 and pro100 is -200. If you’re not familiar with Moneylines it’s telling us pro100 is the favorite and you’d have to put up $200 to win $100, of you’d win $50 if you put up $100.
With my dying breath I’ll keep shouting about how important Implied Probability is to a gambler. If you bet on a team that is -200 they must win 66.67% of the time or you can never hope to make a profit. So we lay it out for each side.
I’m treating e-sports exactly like I’d treat a regular sports team. My assumption here is you’re going to win if you inflict more damage on to the opposing team than they impose on you. So I’ve weighted their stats and it spits out a prediction of win probability for both sides. In this case, with a Degen Diff of 50.14% pro100 should win, but it is razor thin.
The potential downside with Degen Differential is that it loves underdogs, it really loves them. So the question with the Degen Diff is this: are the favorites vastly overvalued by the sports books or are am I under valuing them? More on this below.
Comparing the Implied Win Probability vs Degen Differential should you bet either side? In this case, we can’t bet pro100. If the Degen Diff is right and pro100 has a 50.14% chance to win we can’t back that side at all. However, there is some value on playing Singularity. UPDATE! Flat betting is not the way to go, but Kelly Criterion is moving the needle so instead of saying which side to back we’ll display the bet size.
I’m kind of suspecting that the Degen Differential is probably overvaluing the underdogs and making matches closer than reality so here’s where I try and compensate for that. The Degen Modded adds more weight to the favorites to try and reflect that some teams are just plain better. Taking a lot of favorites is never a great idea and I suspect that Degen Modded won’t do that a whole hell of a lot even with the weights.
If the Degen Modded is closer to reality than the Degen Diff the Kelly Criterion should be perfect.
For those of you that don’t know what it is, The Kelly weights risk vs reward to determine how exposed you should be for each play. In this case, using the Degen Modded, we can’t bet either side.
For our purposes, I’m setting aside $100 bankroll and I’m using a very conservative Quarter Kelly. As our bankroll fluctuates up and down our risk will do the same.
With a bankroll this small and this tight there might be
instances where we can’t even wager $1. If your book doesn’t let you wager such
a small amount skip it.
There we go! We have a couple different methods we’re going to explore and we’ll see if we can find any value in CS:GO.
What’s the point of all this? Aren’t there enough social media sites already?
Yes, there are far too many social media sites, but this one should be viewed less as social media and more of a hangout. We’re here to talk about sports, gambling, sports and gambling. So, hangout let us know what you think and maybe together we can make some money.