CS:GO 3-28

If you haven’t checked out the primer head over here.

As soon as I shot my mouth off about massive favorites never losing Swole Patrol takes down Liquid and everything changed!

Unique Vs Hard Legion

UniqueVsHard Legion
125Line-175
44.44%Implied63.64%
50.05%Degen Differential49.95%
$2.52Bet?$0.00
55.52%Degen Modded46.48%
$4.99K-Bet?$0.00

G2 Vs TYLOO

G2VsTYLOO
-1200Line600
92.31%Implied14.29%
50.17%Degen Differential49.83%
$0.00Bet?$10.37
66.53%Degen Modded45.97%
$0.00K-Bet?$9.24

Dignitas Vs Gen.G

DignitasVsGen.G
125Line-175
44.44%Implied63.64%
49.66%Degen Differential50.34%
$2.35Bet?$0.00
39.14%Degen Modded62.86%
$0.00K-Bet?$0.00

mousesports Vs FaZe

mousesportsVsFaZe
-120Line-120
54.55%Implied54.55%
49.94%Degen Differential50.06%
$0.00Bet?$0.00
52.29%Degen Modded50.49%
$0.00K-Bet?$0.00

MIBR Vs Orgless

MIBRVsOrgless
-250Line175
71.43%Implied36.36%
49.81%Degen Differential50.19%
$0.00Bet?$5.43
41.07%Degen Modded60.93%
$0.00K-Bet?$9.65

Liquid Vs 100 Thieves

LiquidVs100 Thieves
-225Line162
69.23%Implied38.17%
50.08%Degen Differential49.92%
$0.00Bet?$4.75
53.11%Degen Modded46.58%
$0.00K-Bet?$3.40

9z Vs Imperial

9zVsImperial
333Line-500
23.09%Implied83.33%
50.22%Degen Differential49.78%
Diff PlayBet?
37.46%Degen Modded52.12%
$4.67K-Bet?$0.00

Station7 Vs Alcoholics Anon

Station7VsAlcoholics Anon
-120Line-120
54.55%Implied54.55%
49.89%Degen Differential50.11%
$0.00Bet?$0.00
49.59%Degen Modded53.19%
$0.00K-Bet?$0.00

ETHEREAL Vs Faint

ETHEREALVsFaint
-120Line-120
54.55%Implied54.55%
50.34%Degen Differential49.66%
$0.00Bet?$0.00
68.13%Degen Modded34.65%
$7.47K-Bet?$0.00

Buffdaddy’s Paypal Vs Polar Ace

Buffdaddy’s PaypalVsPolar Ace
-334Line240
76.96%Implied29.41%
50.10%Degen Differential49.90%
$0.00Bet?$7.26
62.76%Degen Modded41.31%
$0.00K-Bet?$4.21

Trivium Vs Serac

TriviumVsSerac
-225Line162
69.23%Implied38.17%
50.98%Degen Differential49.02%
$0.00Bet?$4.39
72.79%Degen Modded27.04%
$2.89K-Bet?$0.00

CS:GO 3-27

If you haven’t checked out the primer head over here.

Swole Patrol Vs Team Liquid

Another massive favorite vs massive dog. So far, we’ve yet to see a -1000 and up lose a match. I’m planning on a modifier that ignores games with this disparity.

Swole PatrolVsTeam Liquid
650Line-1400
13.33%Implied93.33%
50.12%Degen Differential49.88%
$10.61Bet?$0.00
66.64%Degen Modded33.36%
$15.38K-Bet?$0.00

Evil Geniuses Vs 100 Thieves

Evil GeniusesVs100 Thieves
-175Line125
63.64%Implied44.44%
50.10%Degen Differential49.90%
$0.00Bet?$2.46
58.07%Degen Modded41.93%
$0.00K-Bet?$0.00

Espanda Vs Pompa

EspandaVsPompa
-334Line240
76.96%Implied29.41%
50.25%Degen Differential49.75%
$0.00Bet?$7.20
55.40%Degen Modded44.60%
$0.00K-Bet?$5.38

SKADE Vs Tricked

SKADEVsTricked
-250Line175
71.43%Implied36.36%
50.18%Degen Differential49.82%
$0.00Bet?$5.29
65.81%Degen Modded34.19%
$0.00K-Bet?$0.00

Ambush Vs Salamander

AmbushVsSalamander
240Line-334
29.41%Implied76.96%
49.74%Degen Differential50.26%
$7.20Bet?$0.00
24.15%Degen Modded75.85%
$0.00K-Bet?$0.00

Copenhagen Flames Vs HAVU

Copenhagen FlamesVsHAVU
137Line-188
42.19%Implied65.28%
50.02%Degen Differential49.98%
$3.38Bet?$0.00
50.90%Degen Modded49.10%
$3.77K-Bet?$0.00

Cloud9 Vs Envy

Cloud9VsEnvy
-250Line175
71.43%Implied36.36%
50.08%Degen Differential49.92%
$0.00Bet?$5.33
58.95%Degen Modded41.05%
$0.00K-Bet?$1.84

CS:GO 3-26

If you haven’t checked out the primer head over here.

100 Thieves Vs Swole Patrol

Both methods are going to tell you to take Swole here, but I’d very hesitant. In our limited data set +400 teams do not fair well.

100 ThievesVsSwole Patrol
-700Line400
87.50%Implied20.00%
49.60%Degen Differential50.40%
0.00%Bet?$9.50
15.43%Degen Modded84.57%
$0.00K-Bet?$20.18

Team Liquid Vs MiBR

Team LiquidVsMiBR
-450Line300
81.82%Implied25.00%
49.95%Degen Differential50.05%
$0.00Bet?$8.35
48.20%Degen Modded51.80%
$0.00K-Bet?$8.93

SKADE Vs Turkey5

SKADEVsTurkey5
-275Line200
73.33%Implied33.33%
50.10%Degen Differential49.90%
$0.00Bet?$6.21
64.13%Degen Modded35.87%
$0.00K-Bet?$0.95

Alternate aTTaX Vs Prima

Alternate aTTaXVsPrima
-250Line175
71.43%Implied36.36%
49.95%Degen Differential50.05%
$0.00Bet?$5.37
40.17%Degen Modded59.83%
$0.00K-Bet?$9.22

Vexed Vs Endpoint

VexedVsEndpoint
162Line-225
38.17%Implied69.23%
50.43%Degen Differential49.57%
$4.96Bet?$0.00
80.51%Degen Modded19.49%
$17.12K-Bet?$0.00

Station 7 Vs Alcoholics Anon

Station 7VsAlcoholics Anon
-188Line137
65.28%Implied42.19%
49.89%Degen Differential50.11%
Bet?Diff Play
$0.00Degen Modded$3.42
$0.00K-Bet?$4.94

CS:GO 3-24

If you haven’t checked out the primer head over here.

A little change here. Flat betting is absolutely not the way to go! I’ve changed the Degen Differential to also use the Kelly Criterion money method. We’ll track that and see how it does.

CS:GO
Chiefs Vs Paradox
Chiefs Vs Paradox
-275 Line 200
73.33% Implied 33.33%
50.06% Degen Differential 49.94%
0.00% Bet? $6.23
55.40% Degen Modded 44.60%
$0.00 K-Bet? $4.23
Rooster Vs Eimi Fukada FC
Rooster Vs Eimi Fukada FC
-334 Line 240
76.96% Implied 29.41%
50.33% Degen Differential 49.67%
$0.00 Bet? $7.18
74.42% Degen Modded 25.58%
$0.00 K-Bet? $0.00
D13 Vs HZ
D13 Vs HZ
137 Line -188
42.19% Implied 65.28%
50.08% Degen Differential 49.92%
$3.41 Bet? $0.00
52.71% Degen Modded 47.29%
$4.55 K-Bet? $0.00
Apeks Vs Turkey5
Apeks Vs Turkey5
-175 Line 125
63.64% Implied 44.44%
50.22% Degen Differential 49.78%
$0.00 Bet? $2.40
69.07% Degen Modded 30.93%
$3.73 K-Bet? $0.00
SKADE Vs Tricked
SKADE Vs Tricked
-175 Line 125
63.64% Implied 44.44%
50.16% Degen Differential 49.84%
$0.00 Bet? $2.43
65.81% Degen Modded 34.19%
$1.49 K-Bet? $0.00
FATE Vs Ambush
FATE Vs Ambush
-250 Line 175
71.43% Implied 36.36%
50.28% Degen Differential 49.72%
$0.00 Bet? $5.25
68.27% Degen Modded 31.73%
$0.00 K-Bet? $0.00
Salamander Vs Unique
Salamander Vs Unique
-120 Line -120
54.55% Implied 54.55%
49.97% Degen Differential 50.03%
$0.00 Bet? $0.00
51.80% Degen Modded 48.20%
$0.00 K-Bet? $0.00
HAVU Vs MAD Lions
HAVU Vs MAD Lions
110 Line -150
47.62% Implied 60.00%
49.98% Degen Differential 50.02%
Diff Play Bet?
$1.13 Degen Modded $0.00
$0.00 K-Bet? $0.00
Cloud9 Vs Orgless
Cloud9 Vs Orgless
-175 Line 125
63.64% Implied 44.44%
49.92% Degen Differential 50.08%
$0.00 Bet? $2.54
Degen Modded
$0.00 K-Bet? $4.93
Chaos Vs MiBR
Chaos Vs MiBR
175 Line -250
36.36% Implied 71.43%
49.92% Degen Differential 50.08%
$5.32 Bet? $0.00
44.60% Degen Modded 55.40%
$3.24 K-Bet? $0.00
Hellraisers Vs Pompa
Hellraisers Vs Pompa
-350 Line 250
77.78% Implied 28.57%
50.07% Degen Differential 49.93%
$0.00 Bet? $7.48
41.05% Degen Modded 58.95%
$0.00 K-Bet? $10.63
Big Vs forZe
Big Vs forZe
-120 Line -120
54.55% Implied 54.55%
49.99% Degen Differential 50.01%
$0.00 Bet? $0.00
52.71% Degen Modded 47.29%
$0.00 K-Bet? $0.00
Natus Vincere Vs Fnatic
Natus Vincere Vs Fnatic
-138 Line 100
57.98% Implied 50.00%
50.07% Degen Differential 49.93%
$0.00 Bet? $0.00
51.80% Degen Modded 48.20%
$0.00 K-Bet? $0.00
North Vs Complexity
North Vs Complexity
110 Line -150
47.62% Implied 60.00%
49.81% Degen Differential 50.19%
Diff Play Bet?
35.87% Degen Modded 64.13%
$0.00 K-Bet? $2.58
Astralis Vs Team Vitality
Astralis Vs Team Vitality
-450 Line 300
81.82% Implied 25.00%
50.22% Degen Differential 49.78%
$0.00 Bet? $8.26
69.07% Degen Modded 30.93%
$0.00 K-Bet? $1.98
GODSENT Vs Team Spirit
GODSENT Vs Team Spirit
100 Line -138
50.00% Implied 57.98%
49.72% Degen Differential 50.28%
$0.00 Bet? $0.00
35.02% Degen Modded 64.98%
$0.00 K-Bet? $4.16
Ninjas in Pajamas Vs ENCE
Ninjas in Pajamas Vs ENCE
-250 Line 175
71.43% Implied 36.36%
50.19% Degen Differential 49.81%
Bet? $5.28
63.29% Degen Modded 36.71%
$0.00 K-Bet? $0.00

CS:GO 3-23

If you haven’t checked out the primer head over here.

As I kinda suspected, the MODDED plays with the Kelly Criterion is working out better than the other method(s), but there are still some instances where we massively disagree with the book’s lines. I suspect they weight strength of schedule differently than I do. If we consistently miss on them I’ll reevaluate, but (fingers crossed) so far so good.

North Vs Big

NorthVsBig
125Line-175
44.44%Implied63.64%
49.75%Degen Differential50.25%
Diff PlayBet?
30.93%Degen Modded69.07%
$0.00K-Bet?$3.73

Natus Vincere Vs Complexity

Natus VincereVsComplexity
-334Line240
76.96%Implied29.41%
49.11%Degen Differential50.89%
Bet?Diff Play
48.20%Degen Modded51.80%
$0.00K-Bet?$7.93

SKADE Vs Pompa

SKADEVsPompa
-500Line333
83.33%Implied23.09%
48.82%Degen Differential51.18%
Bet?Diff Play
38.43%Degen Modded61.57%
$0.00K-Bet?$12.51

MAD Lions Vs c0ntact

MAD LionsVsc0ntact
-275Line200
73.33%Implied33.33%
50.02%Degen Differential49.98%
Bet?Diff Play
52.71%Degen Modded47.29%
$0.00K-Bet?$5.24

Dignitas Vs Orgless

DignitasVsOrgless
-275Line200
73.33%Implied33.33%
45.10%Degen Differential54.90%
Bet?Diff Play
31.73%Degen Modded68.27%
$0.00K-Bet?$13.10

Juggernauts Vs Unique

JuggernautsVsUnique
-138Line100
57.98%Implied50.00%
50.15%Degen Differential49.85%
Bet?
64.13%Degen Modded35.87%
$3.66K-Bet?$0.00

FATE Vs Prima

FATEVsPrima
-275Line200
73.33%Implied33.33%
47.13%Degen Differential52.87%
Bet?Diff Play
22.76%Degen Modded77.24%
$0.00K-Bet?$16.46

Thunder Logic Vs Alcoholics Anon

Thunder LogicVsAlcoholics Anon
-120Line-120
54.55%Implied54.55%
50.50%Degen Differential49.50%
Bet?
96.98%Degen Modded3.02%
$23.34K-Bet?$0.00

CS:GO 3-20

If you haven’t checked out the primer head over here

Predicting sides has been doing okay, but we’re losing on playing too many underdogs. Especially the big massive dogs!

Ambush Vs Apeks

AmbushVsApeks
240Line-334
29.41%Implied76.96%
49.63%Degen Differential50.37%
Diff PlayBet?
14.90%Degen Modded85.10%
$0.00K-Bet?$0.00

Prima Vs Defusekids

Don’t touch this game! Two unranked teams with at least one player that has no stat lines. The model tried to normalize it, but wow 83.47% certainty on a +240 ‘Dog? Either Vegas or the model is way off.

PrimaVsDefusekids
240Line-334
29.41%Implied76.96%
56.05%Degen Differential43.95%
Diff PlayBet?
83.47%Degen Modded16.53%
$19.15K-Bet?$0.00

Vitality Vs Spirit

VitalityVsSpirit
-250Line175
71.43%Implied36.36%
49.73%Degen Differential50.27%
Bet?Diff Play
34.19%Degen Modded65.81%
$0.00K-Bet?$11.57

Unique Vs Endpoint

UniqueVsEndpoint
200Line-275
33.33%Implied73.33%
49.38%Degen Differential50.62%
Diff PlayBet?
48.20%Degen Modded51.80%
$5.57K-Bet?$0.00

Envy Vs MIBR

EnvyVsMIBR
125Line-175
44.44%Implied63.64%
49.98%Degen Differential50.02%
Diff PlayBet?
47.29%Degen Modded52.71%
$1.28K-Bet?$0.00

Astralis Vs ENCE

AstralisVsENCE
-800Line450
88.89%Implied18.18%
52.76%Degen Differential47.24%
Bet?Diff Play
61.57%Degen Modded38.43%
$0.00K-Bet?$0.00

Yeah Vs Thunder Logic

YeahVsThunder Logic
-500Line333
83.33%Implied23.09%
50.47%Degen Differential49.53%
Bet?Diff Play
72.94%Degen Modded27.06%
$0.00K-Bet?$1.29

Dignitas Vs Cloud9

DignitasVsCloud9
-120Line-120
54.55%Implied54.55%
46.11%Degen Differential53.89%
Bet?
31.73%Degen Modded68.27%
$0.00K-Bet?$0.00

CS:GO 3-18

Big day! If you haven’t checked out the primer head over to check it out.

Astralis Vs GODSENT

AstralisVsGODSENT
-800Line450
88.89%Implied18.18%
50.02%Degen Differential49.98%
Bet?Diff Play
55.40%Degen Modded44.60%
K-Bet?$8.07

Team Viatality Vs ENCE

Team ViatalityVsENCE
-334Line240
76.96%Implied29.41%
54.37%Degen Differential45.63%
Bet?Diff Play
60.70%Degen Modded39.30%
K-Bet?$3.50

AGO Vs Nordavind

AGOVsNordavind
-225Line162
69.23%Implied38.17%
50.20%Degen Differential49.80%
Bet?Diff Play
64.98%Degen Modded35.02%
$0.00K-Bet?$0.00

HellRaisers Vs GamerLegion

HellRaisersVsGamerLegion
200Line-275
33.33%Implied73.33%
45.27%Degen Differential54.73%
Diff PlayBet?
31.73%Degen Modded68.27%
$0.00K-Bet?$0.00

Movistar Riders Vs pro100

Movistar RidersVspro100
-138Line100
57.98%Implied50.00%
49.95%Degen Differential50.05%
Bet?Diff Play
38.43%Degen Modded61.57%
$0.00K-Bet?$5.78

Sprout Vs Japaleno

SproutVsJapaleno
-334Line240
76.96%Implied29.41%
49.61%Degen Differential50.39%
Bet?Diff Play
55.40%Degen Modded44.60%
$0.00K-Bet?$5.38

Bad News Bears Vs TeamOne

Bad News BearsVsTeamOne
-120Line-120
54.55%Implied54.55%
50.20%Degen Differential49.80%
Bet?
59.83%Degen Modded40.17%
$2.91K-Bet?$0.00

Chaos Vs Mythic

ChaosVsMythic
-450Line300
81.82%Implied25.00%
51.47%Degen Differential48.53%
Bet?Diff Play
37.57%Degen Modded62.43%
$0.00K-Bet?$12.48

Rugratz Vs Recon 5

RugratzVsRecon 5
100Line-138
50.00%Implied57.98%
50.06%Degen Differential49.94%
Diff PlayBet?
57.18%Degen Modded42.82%
$3.59K-Bet?$0.00

Triumph Vs Under 21

TriumphVsUnder 21
-188Line137
65.28%Implied42.19%
48.08%Degen Differential51.92%
Bet?Diff Play
33.36%Degen Modded66.64%
$0.00K-Bet?$10.57

Tricked Vs Endpoint

TrickedVsEndpoint
137Line-188
42.19%Implied65.28%
49.83%Degen Differential50.17%
Diff PlayBet?
35.87%Degen Modded64.13%
$0.00K-Bet?$0.00

CS:GO 3-16

Yesterday favorites dominated the scene and went 10-4. Flat betting all favorites would have netted you -$24.08 with flat betting $50. When favorites dominate the day so much it is hard to make a profit. Let’s break down the methods and see what we learned.

As suspected, Degen Differential loved the underdogs a bit too much.  Degen Diff went 3-9 and -$219 for a flat bettor.

Modded plays did a bit better and went 4-7 -$129.00 flat betting. Modded’s weights towards liking favorites more seems like the more sensible move.

Using the Kelly Method with the Modded Plays turned a profit. Going 4-7, but weighting your bets using Kelly turned a profit of $3.54. It may not sound like much but gaining 3% plus on your bankroll is a pretty decent return.

Let’s break down today. Each of these three matches are best 2/3 maps.

Team Vitality Vs GODSENT

This is a match I’d avoid. The fifth player in Team Vitality has zero stats. I’m assuming that Team Vitality wouldn’t pick up a bum off the street to join them so I weighted the 5th player as an average Vitality player.

Team VitalityVsGODSENT
-225Line162
69.23%Implied38.17%
50.05%Degen Differential49.95%
Bet?Diff Play
48.87%Degen Modded51.13%
$0.00K-Bet?$5.43

Astralis Vs Ninjas in Pajamas

The numbers say you have to back Ninjas in Pajamas based on payout. You can’t back -1400 plays and expect to make money long term.

AstralisVsNinjas in Pajamas
-1400Line650
93.33%Implied13.33%
52.68%Degen Differential47.32%
Bet?Diff Play
69.07%Degen Modded30.93%
$0.00K-Bet?$5.26

Singularity Vs Espada

SingularityVsEspada
110Line-150
47.62%Implied60.00%
49.84%Degen Differential50.16%
Diff PlayBet?
36.71%Degen Modded63.29%
$0.00K-Bet?$2.13

Betting on Vidya Games: CS:GO

This is going to be fun!? Let’s break down what we’re doing here.

Here’s an example of the chart:

SingularityVspro100
150Line-200
40.00%Implied66.67%
49.86%Degen Differential50.14%
Diff PlayBet?
36.71%Degen Modded63.29%
$0.00Bet?$0.00

Team Names

First up is the name of the two teams:
Singularity vs pro100, with me so far?

The Lines

Next up is the freshest line I can grab. As you know the lines like to move based on the money coming in. In this case, Singularity is +150 and pro100 is -200. If you’re not familiar with Moneylines it’s telling us pro100 is the favorite and you’d have to put up $200 to win $100, of you’d win $50 if you put up $100.

Implied Probability

With my dying breath I’ll keep shouting about how important Implied Probability is to a gambler. If you bet on a team that is -200 they must win 66.67% of the time or you can never hope to make a profit. So we lay it out for each side.

Degen Differential

I’m treating e-sports exactly like I’d treat a regular sports team. My assumption here is you’re going to win if you inflict more damage on to the opposing team than they impose on you. So I’ve weighted their stats and it spits out a prediction of win probability for both sides. In this case, with a Degen Diff of 50.14% pro100 should win, but it is razor thin.

The potential downside with Degen Differential is that it loves underdogs, it really loves them. So the question with the Degen Diff is this: are the favorites vastly overvalued by the sports books or are am I under valuing them? More on this below.

Bet?

Comparing the Implied Win Probability vs Degen Differential should you bet either side? In this case, we can’t bet pro100. If the Degen Diff is right and pro100 has a 50.14% chance to win we can’t back that side at all. However, there is some value on playing Singularity.
UPDATE!
Flat betting is not the way to go, but Kelly Criterion is moving the needle so instead of saying which side to back we’ll display the bet size.

Degen Modded

I’m kind of suspecting that the Degen Differential is probably overvaluing the underdogs and making matches closer than reality so here’s where I try and compensate for that. The Degen Modded adds more weight to the favorites to try and reflect that some teams are just plain better. Taking a lot of favorites is never a great idea and I suspect that Degen Modded won’t do that a whole hell of a lot even with the weights.

Bet?

If the Degen Modded is closer to reality than the Degen Diff the Kelly Criterion should be perfect.

For those of you that don’t know what it is, The Kelly weights risk vs reward to determine how exposed you should be for each play. In this case, using the Degen Modded, we can’t bet either side.

For our purposes, I’m setting aside $100 bankroll and I’m using a very conservative Quarter Kelly. As our bankroll fluctuates up and down our risk will do the same.

With a bankroll this small and this tight there might be instances where we can’t even wager $1. If your book doesn’t let you wager such a small amount skip it.

There we go! We have a couple different methods we’re going to explore and we’ll see if we can find any value in CS:GO.