Mad Max’s 2021 NHL Power Rankings (so far)

Hey everyone, Mad Max here with my current 2021 NHL Power Rankings. What’s different with my ranking, is that I also look at the average moneyline you pay (or get) on most nights and factor that in with team metrics to determine which teams provide the most value on any given night.

021 NHL Power Rankings

It’s a mixed bag, really. Some great teams that you pay a lot for top the list while others are at the bottom. And a few surprise dogs in the top 10.

2021 NHL Power Rankings

Before I get into it, let me explain a bit of how I evaluate teams. I look at their xGF (Expected Goals For – or quality of shots taken), their xGA (Expected Goals Against – or quality of the shots they stop), PDO (shooting plus save percentage – essentially a team’s luck factor) and also look at how they do 5on5 versus playing in or against the Power Play.

I’ll revisit this a bit later in the season to see where we are at.

Hope it helps!

-Mad Max

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2021 NHL Power Rankings

Rank 1
Team Florida Panthers
Notes Don’t let goal differential fool you. The Panthers are as good as Tampa and you will pay a lot less for them on most nights. Florida has a 99.7 PDO – meaning that they are slightly unlucky. Yikes.
Average ML -125 to -175
Rank 2
Team Colorado Avalanche
Notes Using advanced statistics, the Avalanche are the 2nd best offense in the league. And their defense is pretty damn good too. Worth paying for on most nights.
Average ML -125 to -175
Rank 3
Team New York Rangers
Notes The Rangers offense is shockingly good at getting great shots on goal. This is a team that will continue to improve and always worth a look as a plus line or small favorite.
Average ML -100 to -150
Rank 4
Team Vegas Golden Knights
Notes You will pay anywhere from -150 to -300 on Vegas on any given night and there’s still value with them.
Average ML -150 to -200
Rank 5
Team Detroit Red Wings
Notes The Red Wings are the hidden secret in the league. But not for much longer. You can still get some good plus lines on them but they are less than what they were earlier in the season.
Average ML +125 to +175
Rank 6
Team Toronto Maple Leafs
Notes I love betting Toronto most days. One of the best offense+defense combos to depend on when betting.
Average ML -100 to -150
Rank 7
Team Dallas Stars
Notes Dallas got off to a weird start and while aren’t consistent, they are starting to show value.
Average ML +125 to -125
Rank 8
Team Montreal Canadiens
Notes My biggest issue with Montreal is trust. I think they should be better than they are. That said, you can get them as a dog or only a slight favorite in most games.
Average ML -100 to -150
Rank 9
Team Washington Capitals
Notes Dependable bet on most nights. I find myself going to this well often.
Average ML +125 to -125
Rank 10
Team Minnesota Wild
Notes Ask me again in a few weeks and Minnesota might be in top 5. Love betting these guys. Their value is diminishing though – so definitely always eye them as a dog.
Average ML -125 to -175
Rank 11
Team Chicago Blackhawks
Notes Other than Detroit, this is my best value play. Chicago is playing way above expectations but their metrics say it’s skill and not luck.
Average ML +125 to +175
Rank 12
Team Philadelphia Flyers
Notes I feel like these guys should be better than they are. But their PDO is one of the worst n the NHL – meaning they should regress and not get better.
Average ML +125 to -125
Rank 13
Team Vancouver Canucks
Notes Lumping these guys together as teams that get mostly plus lines and worth a sniff (despite their lackluster records).
Average ML +100 to +150
Rank 14
Team Winnipeg Jets
Notes
Average ML +125 to -125
Rank 15
Team Buffalo Sabres
Notes
Average ML +100 to +150
Rank 16
Team San Jose Sharks
Notes
Average ML +100 to +150
Rank 17
Team New York Islanders
Notes For a team that is one of the best teams in the league record-wise, I still worry about them. Their offense is still not great at producing good shots and their luck factor is above average.
Average ML -100 to -150
Rank 18
Team Calgary Flames
Notes Subpar team and you end up paying for them. Not worth it most nights.
Average ML -100 to -150
Rank 19
Team Carolina Hurricanes
Notes Carolina has a high PDO and their defense is suspect. They have been getting some chalky lines lately and not worth the implied probability most nights.
Average ML -100 to -150
Rank 20
Team Boston Bruins
Notes Starting to get to the section of teams that are overvalued on most nights. The books are trying to make you pay more than they are worth.
Average ML -125 to -175
Rank 21
Team Anaheim Ducks
Notes Another grouping of plus lines only I like these less than the last group.
Average ML +100 to +150
Rank 22
Team Los Angeles Kings
Notes
Average ML +100 to +150
Rank 23
Team New Jersey Devils
Notes
Average ML +100 to +150
Rank 24
Team St. Louis Blues
Notes Now for a group of teams where the advanced metrics tell me to avoid pretty much every night. The Blues, Penguins and Oilers have the brand names of the bunch (and records that could make them playoff bound) – but I don’t see more value in betting them than the others in this group.
Average ML -125 to -175
Rank 25
Team Arizona Coyotes
Notes
Average ML +100 to +150
Rank 26
Team Columbus Blue Jackets
Notes
Average ML +125 to -125
Rank 27
Team Edmonton Oilers
Notes
Average ML -100 to -150
Rank 28
Team Ottawa Senators
Notes
Average ML +125 to +175
Rank 29
Team Nashville Predators
Notes
Average ML +125 to -125
Rank 30
Team Pittsburgh Penguins
Notes
Average ML +125 to -125
Rank 31
Team Tampa Bay Lightning
Notes The main issue with Tampa is they are the luckiest team in the league when it comes to PDO. This balances out over a season – making them a risk to bet at their higher moneyline amounts. Also, Tampa is really good 5on5 – not so much when playing down a man. Too much money to pay on most nights.
Average ML -150 to -200

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