Yesterday favorites dominated the scene and went 10-4. Flat betting all favorites would have netted you -$24.08 with flat betting $50. When favorites dominate the day so much it is hard to make a profit. Let’s break down the methods and see what we learned.
As suspected, Degen Differential loved the underdogs a bit too much. Degen Diff went 3-9 and -$219 for a flat bettor.
Modded plays did a bit better and went 4-7 -$129.00 flat betting. Modded’s weights towards liking favorites more seems like the more sensible move.
Using the Kelly Method with the Modded Plays turned a profit. Going 4-7, but weighting your bets using Kelly turned a profit of $3.54. It may not sound like much but gaining 3% plus on your bankroll is a pretty decent return.
Let’s break down today. Each of these three matches are best 2/3 maps.
Team Vitality Vs GODSENT
This is a match I’d avoid. The fifth player in Team Vitality has zero stats. I’m assuming that Team Vitality wouldn’t pick up a bum off the street to join them so I weighted the 5th player as an average Vitality player.
Astralis Vs Ninjas in Pajamas
The numbers say you have to back Ninjas in Pajamas based on payout. You can’t back -1400 plays and expect to make money long term.
|Astralis||Vs||Ninjas in Pajamas|
Singularity Vs Espada