Yesterday favorites dominated the scene and went 10-4. Flat betting all favorites would have netted you -$24.08 with flat betting $50. When favorites dominate the day so much it is hard to make a profit. Let’s break down the methods and see what we learned.
As suspected, Degen Differential loved the underdogs a bit too much. Degen Diff went 3-9 and -$219 for a flat bettor.
Modded plays did a bit better and went 4-7 -$129.00 flat betting. Modded’s weights towards liking favorites more seems like the more sensible move.
Using the Kelly Method with the Modded Plays turned a profit. Going 4-7, but weighting your bets using Kelly turned a profit of $3.54. It may not sound like much but gaining 3% plus on your bankroll is a pretty decent return.
Let’s break down today. Each of these three matches are best 2/3 maps.
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Team Vitality Vs GODSENT
This is a match I’d avoid. The fifth player in Team Vitality has zero stats. I’m assuming that Team Vitality wouldn’t pick up a bum off the street to join them so I weighted the 5th player as an average Vitality player.
| Team Vitality | Vs | GODSENT |
| -225 | Line | 162 |
| 69.23% | Implied | 38.17% |
| 50.05% | Degen Differential | 49.95% |
| Bet? | Diff Play | |
| 48.87% | Degen Modded | 51.13% |
| $0.00 | K-Bet? | $5.43 |
Astralis Vs Ninjas in Pajamas
The numbers say you have to back Ninjas in Pajamas based on payout. You can’t back -1400 plays and expect to make money long term.
| Astralis | Vs | Ninjas in Pajamas |
| -1400 | Line | 650 |
| 93.33% | Implied | 13.33% |
| 52.68% | Degen Differential | 47.32% |
| Bet? | Diff Play | |
| 69.07% | Degen Modded | 30.93% |
| $0.00 | K-Bet? | $5.26 |
Singularity Vs Espada
| Singularity | Vs | Espada |
| 110 | Line | -150 |
| 47.62% | Implied | 60.00% |
| 49.84% | Degen Differential | 50.16% |
| Diff Play | Bet? | |
| 36.71% | Degen Modded | 63.29% |
| $0.00 | K-Bet? | $2.13 |