CS:GO 3-16

Yesterday favorites dominated the scene and went 10-4. Flat betting all favorites would have netted you -$24.08 with flat betting $50. When favorites dominate the day so much it is hard to make a profit. Let’s break down the methods and see what we learned.

As suspected, Degen Differential loved the underdogs a bit too much.  Degen Diff went 3-9 and -$219 for a flat bettor.

Modded plays did a bit better and went 4-7 -$129.00 flat betting. Modded’s weights towards liking favorites more seems like the more sensible move.

Using the Kelly Method with the Modded Plays turned a profit. Going 4-7, but weighting your bets using Kelly turned a profit of $3.54. It may not sound like much but gaining 3% plus on your bankroll is a pretty decent return.

Let’s break down today. Each of these three matches are best 2/3 maps.

Team Vitality Vs GODSENT

This is a match I’d avoid. The fifth player in Team Vitality has zero stats. I’m assuming that Team Vitality wouldn’t pick up a bum off the street to join them so I weighted the 5th player as an average Vitality player.

Team VitalityVsGODSENT
-225Line162
69.23%Implied38.17%
50.05%Degen Differential49.95%
Bet?Diff Play
48.87%Degen Modded51.13%
$0.00K-Bet?$5.43

Astralis Vs Ninjas in Pajamas

The numbers say you have to back Ninjas in Pajamas based on payout. You can’t back -1400 plays and expect to make money long term.

AstralisVsNinjas in Pajamas
-1400Line650
93.33%Implied13.33%
52.68%Degen Differential47.32%
Bet?Diff Play
69.07%Degen Modded30.93%
$0.00K-Bet?$5.26

Singularity Vs Espada

SingularityVsEspada
110Line-150
47.62%Implied60.00%
49.84%Degen Differential50.16%
Diff PlayBet?
36.71%Degen Modded63.29%
$0.00K-Bet?$2.13