MMA Bets May 21st

I’ve been applying my methodology of UFC to the other leagues. It has had some success over the last month. Let’s talk about each method.

Hyper Aggressive is an action junkies’ dream. If we can find value, no matter how small, we jump on the fighter. Aggressive follows Hyper Aggressive pretty well, but it factors in the other fighter a bit harder.  So there is some tiny variations. Safer is, well safer. It tightens way, way up compared to the other two. It looks for value on the fighter, a devalued opponent and it won’t take any moneyline that exceeds an absurd number. Safer is the most profitable of the three. Hyper Aggressive is next and Aggressive is last place. However, all three turn a profit over the last month to varying degrees.

Flat betting a set amount is more profitable for Aggressive and Hyper Aggressive methods of play, but that becomes difficult as both methods have no restrictions on odds. This is an issue I want to explore down the road and see if we can find some hard limits. Safer does well flat betting and laying the number. As more data comes in, I think we can start to pinpoint better opportunities. Personally, I bet all the safer plays today.

Here’s what I have today.

LFA 108

Hyper Aggressive

Josh Fremd -244
Clayton Carpenter -331
Kathryn Paprocki -127
Thomas Petersen -1100
Bryce Meredith -1863
Ernesto Ancona 304
Mark Climaco -267

Aggressive

Josh Fremd -244
Kathryn Paprocki -127
Thomas Petersen -1100
Ernesto Ancona 304
Mark Climaco -267

Safer

No Plays

Invicta FC 44

Hyper Aggressive

Jessica Delboni 121
Claire Guthrie -107
Josee Storts -164
Fatima Kline -152
Elise Pone -142

Aggressive

Daiana Torquato 127
Jessica Delboni 121
Claire Guthrie -107
Josee Storts -164
Fatima Kline -152
Elise Pone -142

Safer

Daiana Torquato 127
Claire Guthrie -107
Josee Storts -164
Fatima Kline -152
Elise Pone -142

Bellator 259

Hyper Aggressive

Cristiane Justino -2080
Leandro Higo 271
Fabian Edwards 212
Maycon Mendonca -106
Valerie Loureda -636
Grant Neal -323
Nate Andrews -367
Sumiko Inaba -628
Aviv Gozali -651
Davion Franklin -1458
Janay Harding -104
Danny Sabatello 200
Alexander Shabliy -533

Aggressive

Cristiane Justino -2080
Fabian Edwards 212
Maycon Mendonca -106
Valerie Loureda -636
Grant Neal -323
Nate Andrews -367
Sumiko Inaba -628
Aviv Gozali -651
Davion Franklin -1458
Janay Harding -104
Danny Sabatello 200
Alexander Shabliy -533

Safer

Maycon Mendonca -106
Grant Neal -323
Janay Harding -104
Danny Sabatello 200

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UFC Fight Night Discussion

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt Bets

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