NFL Odds, Implied Win Probabilities and Futures

We’re down to the final four in the NFL!

Let’s see what kind of card we can build based on “expert” projections.


Here are the odds for each team to win the Super Bowl according to Bet 365:
Kansas City Chiefs: +130 43.48%
San Francisco 49ers +150 40.00%
Green Bay Packers +650 13.33%
Tennessee Titans +750 11.76%

So, the implied probability here:
Kansas City Chiefs: 43.48%
San Francisco 49ers: 40.00%
Green Bay Packers: 13.33%
Tennessee Titans: 11.76%

Now let’s compare those win probabilities to some prognosticators.

Football Outsiders

Team Conf Win SB Win
KC 64.4% 38.2%
SF 74.6% 35.1%
TEN 35.6% 19.4%
GB 25.4% 7.4%

Interestingly enough, the only team that isn’t t viable according to Football Outsiders is Max’s Own Green Bay Frauds.
Using those numbers, the optimal Dutching card would be:
KC $45.65
SF $42.00
TEN $12.35

FiveThirtyEight

Team Conf Win SB Win
KC 69% 43%
SF 64% 26%
TEN 31% 17%
GB 36% 14%

Nate Silver’s team seems to think SF has such a low chance we can’t pull the trigger on them.

Here’s a Dutching card using their numbers:

KC $63.40
TEN $19.44
GB $17.16

There it is! Two pretty different cards. What do you think? Does Green Bay have a chance? Is there value on San Francisco? Are the Chiefs overvalued?