Mad Max here with some Max’s Salty picks (Best NHL Bets for 1/13/2021). The NHL kicks off today with 5 games. I am dusting off my model from last season and made a few tweaks – trying to factor in NHL’s luck factor. Fingers crossed.
I am using 2019 data right now so please do take these picks with a grain of salt (thus, Max’s Salty picks).
Rich has also included his pick so that’s listed below too.
Good luck and happy NHL season everyone!
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Max’s Best NHL Bets for 1/13/2021
Pittsburgh (-105) at Philadelphia (-125)
Action: Lean Pittsburgh
Overview: I don’t hide from my feelings that I felt that the Flyers were overrated last year and heading into this season, I still feel that way. They are a good team – don’t get me wrong. Carter Hart is a damn good goalie. Outside of that, this is mid-tier team.
The Penguins might not be Stanley Cup contenders at this point but when you have Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel and Evgeni Malkin – you always have a shot.
I like the Penguins to nab the opener here but only leaning them.
Montreal (+120) at Toronto (-140)
Action: Bet Montreal
Overview: Two interesting teams here. Toronto looks to take the next step after making progress last year while Montreal can be a dangerous team. They suffered from some bad luck last year and if that balances to the norm, you have a winning team.
Carey Price started off slow last season and then bounced back in a big way. I look to him to start strong this year and for the Canadians to be a surprise team. I can’t discount the talent of Toronto for a long season – but for opening night, I like the value of Montreal.
Betting $20 on the Canadians.
Chicago (+210) at Tampa Bay (-250)
Action: Lean Tampa Bay
Overview: The Stanley Cup Champs kick off their season against a team that looked terrible for most of last season and then looked dangerous at the end. The Tampa Bay offense is so damn electrifying while their defense is not half bad either.
For Chicago, this could be the complete downfall. After playing hard last season, they find themselves missing some of these key players that kept them afloat on defense. Offensively, they have Patrick Kane – and that’s always something to brag about. It could keep them in games as they find themselves in some high scoring games.
I think Tampa Bay wins this one but it’s way too much chalk and the value is not there to bet on Chicago.
Vancouver (+100) at Edmonton (-120)
Action: Bet Edmonton
Overview: Vancouver is another team that I started to like last year and could make some strides this season. Their defense was terrible last year and they addressed it a bit in the offseason. So they will be fun to watch.
Edmonton is a team that made me pull my hair out last season. They should have been better than they actually were. I see more of the same this year. They will score, that’s for sure. But they will also give up a lot of goals.
So this game could be a game to eye the over in goals but I am liking Edmonton to win this one outright and it’s not too chalky.
Betting $20 on Edmonton.
St. Louis (+115) at Colorado (-135)
Action: Bet Colorado
Overview: Everyone thinks Colorado will win the Stanley Cup this season and its hard to argue. Their offense is legit and their defense isn’t too shabby. Nathan MacKinnon is amazing and could be an MVP winner after all is said and done.
The Blues had a somewhat disappointing season last year but hope to bounce back. The Blues’ defense should be up to the task of slowing down Colorado. Whether they succeed is a different story.
I like the Avalanche here. It’s a bit on the higher end of my chalk threshold, but the implied probability is there.
Betting $20 on Colorado.
Rich’s NHL Bets for 1/13/2021
It’s opening night in the NHL, might as well get started with the first game of the 2021 season.
Pittsburgh Penguins (-103) at Philadelphia Flyers (-113)
The Flyers enter the season with a chip on their shoulders, or at least that’s the talk from the locker room. Magic Excel says Philly starts the season with a W. One caveat, data is based on last year. The Flyers have the 54/46 home/away power advantage and the 52/48 home/away goal differential edge. Meanwhile, -113 equals a 53% chance the Flyers win, the Fish puts it closer to 60%. That means the Flyers are an underlay and there is value at -113.
The Play: Philadelphia Flyers -113