The Good, the Mad and the Ugly: NFL Week 2

Rams at Eagles
Open: Phi -3.5
Current: Phi -1
O/U: 45.5 (over)
Overview: To say I am a bit worried about this one is an understatement. The Rams are flying out East and expectations are they take easy care of the Eagles. After all, they beat the Cowboys who are considered the best team in the East. And the Eagles struggled against the Redskins in a week 1 loss. Overreactions tend to happen after week 1 so let’s look at some facts. Carson Wentz was sacked 8 times in week 1. He threw 2 INTs and never looked comfortable out there. Zach Erntz was ignored and that’s a relationship that looks like it is deteriorating. The Eagles had more totals yards, less penalty yards and had the ball for more time than Washington. They lost by 10. For the Rams, 3 of their defensive players had sacks against a great offensive line. They put up 422 total yards and their offense was moving fast. It’s hard not to react to all of that. Yet, I still want to be cautious here. The public is on LA here and the sharps are hard on the Eagles. I’ll lean the Rams but I am weary of a letdown for them.

 

Jaguars at Titans
Open: Ten -11
Current: Ten -7.5 (Bet Titans)
O/U: 44 (slight under)
Overview: The Jaguars proved a lot of people wrong in week 1. I admit that I was one of them. But I am not ready to anoint The Mustache as the MVP just yet. Jacksonville’s win told us more about the Colts than it did the Jaguars. Jacksonville’s defense bent a lot but didn’t break. They cannot sustain that for too long. As for the Titans, it was a grind in Denver to get a week 1 win but I liked what I saw from Tannehill and Henry. This is going to be an offense that takes it to Jacksonville. It is a bit chalky for me but I do have Tennessee winning by double digits here. Betting the Titans.

 

Giants at Bears
Open: Chi -5.
Current: Chi -5.5
O/U: 42 (under)
Overview: I put a stake in the ground on the Bears this season. And when doing my win totals, I had the Bears not losing until late October or early November. Facing this Giants team gives them a good start to go 2-0 to begin the season. The Giants had a lackluster performance on Monday night but looking closer, it wasn’t that bad. In fact, if Daniel Jones limited his INT’s and Saquon Barkley didn’t disappear, New York could have had a chance to win the game. As for the Bears, Mitch Trubisky ended with a good game but it was more due to the Lions poor defense. The Giants have another defense that can be exploited – despite their efforts to improve in the offseason. The money is hard on the Giants here so it’s enough to give me pause and lean the Giants with the points.

 

 

Falcons at Cowboys
Open: Dal -7
Current: Dal -4.5
O/U: 53 (over)
Overview: The Cowboys are coming off a disappointing season opener against the Rams and face stat stuffer Matt Ryan. They also have to do this Leighton Vander Esch who is out out 6-8 weeks with a collarbone injury. I am expecting a bit of a score fest here. Dak and his wide receivers should be able to put up big numbers on the Falcons’ secondary – who were shredded by Russell Wilson last week. The public is on Dallas here but money has been coming in on Atlanta. I like the Falcons to keep this a bit tighter but the downshift of the line has moved it out of my comfort zone. Leaning Atlanta.

 

 

Broncos at Steelers
Open: Pit -5.5
Current: Pit -7.5 (Bet Broncos)
O/U: 40.5 (under)
Overview: The Steelers were able to show that Big Ben still has something left in the tank. Now they welcome the Broncos into town for their home opener. Drew Lock was decent and Melvin Gordon looks like he could get back to his old form. But the Steelers defense looked fairly good – especially in stopping the run. For the Steelers, they should expect a better defense from Denver than the Giants gave them. The Steelers were able to run all over the Giants and Benny Snell should still get touches today with James Connor out – but this team won’t be able to run at will here. The Broncos could have won in week 1 and not saying they can win this week, but I expect a little regression from the Steelers offense which should make this a close one. Betting Denver.

 

 

Vikings at Colts
Open: Ind – 2.5
Current: Ind -3 (Bet Vikings)
O/U: 49.5 (slight over)
Overview: Both teams will look to shake off week 1 losses and avoid going 0-2 to start the season. For the Vikings, they need to find their defensive roots again after being decimated by Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense last week. Kirk Cousins looked pretty good and Dalvin Cook managed to get a couple of touchdowns to keep pace with Green Bay. But they also showed a little rust that hopefully comes off for them this week. The Colts got outplayed by Mr. Mustache last week and also lost Marlon Mack in the process. Rookie Jonathon Taylor will get the start in Mack’s place. This was probably the intention eventually – so no better time than the present. With Phillip Rivers doing Phillip Rivers things, I think the Colts need to rely on Taylor here to help balance the offense. I’m still not high on the Colts and will back the Vikings to look a lot better this week. Betting Minnesota.

 

 

Panthers at Bucs
Open: TB -8
Current: TB -9.5 (lean Panthers)
O/U: 48 (over)
Overview: There is definitely something odd happening between Bruce Arians and Tom Brady. The press conferences for both guys just seemed like a lesson is social awkwardness. This team has high expectations and Tom’s professionalism should allow him to shrug this off. But he’s also one of the greatest QBs of all time and that swelled pride will lash out at Arians eventually if these comments continue. Brady should have opportunities to look good against a very young Panthers defense. As for Carolina, their offense looked pretty damn good with Bridgewater and McCaffrey leading the way. I’m expecting a high scoring game here and Carolina able to keep up with Tampa to stay within the spread. The public is split here and the money is all over the Panthers. I’ll lean Carolina here.

 

 

Bills at Dolphins
Open: Buf -3.5
Current: Buf -6 (Bet Bills)
O/U: 41 (over)
Overview: The Bills came out in week 1 to assert dominance over one AFC East foe and now they get to do it again this week. Tua watch continues in Miami as a couple more iffy performances by Fitzpatrick will result in fans getting their wish. The Bills certainly know about Fitz’s uneven play and now they have a pretty steady QB to help lead them into the future. The Bills took no time going to the Stefon Diggs well and I predict another big target day for him this week. I like the Bills to win this one and to cover like they did last week. Betting Buffalo.

 

49ers at Jets
Open: SF -6
Current: SF -7 (lean Niners)
O/U: 42 (Under)
Overview: The 49ers had a disappointing open to the season or as the Jets call it, normalcy. San Francisco is traveling cross country – which is always something to be aware and concerned about. But I expect them to bounce back to look more like the team they were last season. The Jets looked like a mess last week and things got worse when they lost Le’Veon Bell to an injury. If this means more on the plate of Sam Darnold, that could be even a bigger issue for New York. The Niners are dealing with some injuries – such as Richard Sherman and George Kittle. So I do expect them to win and possibly cover. But the travel mixed with injuries is enough to move this to a lean for the Niners.

 

Lions at Packers
Open: GB -6
Current: GB -6 (Bet Packers)
O/U: 49.5 (under)
Overview: Aaron Rodgers showed the Packers that he still has a lot left in the tank and that drafting a QB to be his eventual replacement may have been a bit premature. Now he gets his shot against a Lions defense that made Mitch Trubisky look like Rodgers in week 1. To make matters worse, Detroit has some cornerback injuries that could make matters even worse. For Green Bay, I think their defense matches up quite well against this Lions team and can slow down their running game a bit and force Stafford to throw. Possibly towards Jaire Alexander who had a great week 1 and looks to repeat that this week. Hard not to like the Packers here. I’ll bet the frauds. Betting Green Bay.

 

Washington at Cardinals
Open: Ari -6
Current: Ari -7 (lean Arizona)
O/U: 47 (under)
Overview: Both teams had a surprising week 1 but for different reasons. We all thought Arizona would take a step forward this season but still a surprise that they took it to the 49ers and won in week 1. For the Washington football team, it was a big surprise they won at all. Washington found some inspirational play at QB as Haskins demonstrated some solid leadership and was backed by a coach who doesn’t take shit from people. Washington’s defense also looked pretty damn good last week – though it was against a porous Philadelphia o-line. Kyler Murray will look to have another solid performance this week but he will definitely face pressure that will make him scramble a lot. That could lead to some hits and Washington can tell you about a running QB who took too many hits. I’ll lean Cardinals here but I would not be shocked if Washington kept this close.

 

Ravens at Texans
Open: Bal -5
Current: Bal -7.5 (Lean Ravens)
O/U: 50 (Over)
Overview: The Ravens took it to the Browns in week 1 but as overreactions go, I still want to temper expectations one more week. I mean, it was the Browns and all. But the Ravens did seem to look like that team from last season and no major signs of regression from Lamar Jackson. For the Texans, the Bill O’Brien clock is ticking and a loss this week moves the minute hand closer to inevitability. I like Deshaun Watson a lot and this team should be able to put up points. But the Ravens are in a different class – similar to the Chiefs. Money and public on Ravens and that’s how I’m leaning too.

 

Chiefs at Chargers
Open: KC -6.5
Current: KC -8.5  (Bet Chiefs)
O/U: 47.5 (Over)
Overview: The Chargers are a team in transition. Tyrod Taylor will get a few more starts before they see what they have with their rookie QB. They are co-opening a stadium in LA with no fans. The good news for them is that it’ll be more like a home game to them as the stands won’t be packed with Chiefs fans. KC will continue to do what they did last week and this should be a double digit win for them. Money and public all over KC and I can’t blame them. Betting the Chiefs.

 

Patriots at Seahawks
Open: Sea -3
Current: Sea -4
O/U: 44.5 (Under)
Overview: We get to find out if Seattle has a 12th man issue. Russell Wilson looked amazing in week 1 and received some praise from Mr. Bill himself. But the Patriots have a damn good defense and Bill looks like he’s having fun with Cam out there. He’s looking to prove he can win without Brady. Here’s a secret: he can. Money and public all over Seattle but I’m on the other side. Can’t quite bet them but leaning the Patriots.