The Good, the Mad and the Ugly: NFL Week 3 Free Sports Betting Picks

Rams at Bills

Open: Buf -3

Current: Buf-2.5 (Lean Rams)

O/U: 46.5 (Over)

Overview: Two teams who are aiming to win their 3rd straight game to start the season. Josh Allen’s name is up there in early MVP talks with his 727 yards and 6 TDs through two games. Still, Buffalo struggled last week against the Dolphins and had to come from behind to get the win. The Rams continue their trip out East after getting the win last week over a mediocre Eagles team. For Goff, he found a potential new weapon last week in Tyler Higbee. Tight Ends didn’t really play a major role in McVay’s offense, but the times they are a changing. This is a close one for me. I do think Buffalo gets the win here but I am going to lean the Rams with the points.

 

Texans at Steelers

Open: Pit -6

Current: Pit -4 (Bet Steelers)

O/U: 46 (Slight Over)

Overview: The Steelers knocked out Drew Lock last week and helped them win their 2nd straight game. At 38 years old, Big Ben seems poised to lead Pittsburgh far this season. He also has the Watt advantage as he has 2 of the 3 of the Watt brothers on his team to help him out. For the Texans, the Bill O’Brien clock will continue tick. Without Deandre Hopkins, Deshaun Watson has struggled a bit to find a true go-to receiver. Ultimately, I think the Steelers’ defense will be too good here and the Houston offense will be a muddled, Bill O’Brien mess. I’m betting Pittsburgh here.

 

Titans at Vikings

Open: PK

Current: Ten -2.5 (Bet Titans)

O/U: 49.5 (Over)

Overview: The Vikings are looking to stop the bleeding and avoiding an 0-3 start. I have some bad news for them. It’s not going to be easy for them this week with the Titans in town. Minnesota has played some sloppy football so far with lots of turnovers and penalties. That should balance out a bit but even so, Kirk Cousins has not shown enough to me this season to warrant a ton of confidence. Minnesota will need to focus on the run as Tennessee can be ran on. The Viking’s defense also needs to focus on stopping Derek Henry and the Titans’ run game. Tennessee may need some extra run plays this week as Tannehill target AJ Brown will probably miss this week.Ultimately I think the Titans win this one and cover easily. Betting the Titans.

 

Bears at Falcons

Open: Atl -3.5

Current: Atl -3 (Lean Falcons)

O/U: 47 (Over)

Overview: The Falcons will look to shake off blowing a 20 point lead over the Cowboys as they attempt to get their first win of the season. The Bears have a chance to start 3-0 for the first time in 7 years. Chicago has not looked stellar in their wins but opportunistic teams with solid defenses can win games in this league. Matt Nagy has opted to keep Mitch Trubisky as the starting QB but a bad start this week could put pressure on Nagy to put Foles in. The Falcons are awful in red zone defense so Trubisky has his best shot at keeping his job by putting up some points. Some key players are questionable in this game as Julio Jones is banged up for Atlanta and Khalil Mack is injured for Chicago. I have Atlanta winning this one but I don’t have enough confidence in them covering. I’ll only lean the Falcons.

 

Niners at Giants

Open: SF -6.5

Current: SF -3.5 (Lean Niners)

O/U: 42 (Under)

Overview: The Niners have got to be happy to get the Giants this week. After being decimated by injuries, San Francisco gets a lesser opponent that struggles mightily on offense and while overall is doing better on defense, still has some glaring holes that the Niners, even without Jimmy G., should be able to take advantage of. The Niners easily handled the other New York team last week and should make it 2 for 2. Without Sauqon Barkley and with Daniel Jones forgetting his team’s jersey color whenever he throws the ball, the Giants will have trouble scoring many points the rest of this season. I am worried about the Niners’ injuries so while I think they win, I can only lean them to cover.

 

Raiders at Patriots

Open: NE -6.5

Current: NE -5.5 (Lean Raiders)

O/U: 47 (Over)

Overview: The Patriots will try to shake off their close loss to Seattle last week as they return home to host the Vegas Raiders. The Patriots’ defense was pushed to the limits last week and now they will need to keep Derek Carr’s surprisingly good offense in check. Josh Jacobs is questionable, so New England could get a little reprieve from having to deal with him at full strength. For the Raiders, they still struggle with any sort of pass rush and will need to try to contain a healthy and rejuvenated Cam Newton. Not sure if they can but I do think they can keep it within 5 points or so. I’ll lean the Raiders.

 

Bengals at Eagles

Open: PHI -5.5

Current: PHI -4.5 (Lean Bengals)

O/U: 47.5 (Under)

Overview: The good news for one of these teams is that they will get their first win of the season this week. Or a tie. Because football still has those. Carson Wentz has struggled to start the season and Philly should focus on just getting a win this week and not try to fix Wentz. Philly can win by running the ball on an awful Bengals’ defense that has been shredded in two consecutive weeks. Rookie QB Joe Burrow has looked pretty good, but injuries to his o-line could mean he takes a few extra hits this week. I think these two teams are much closer then most people think. And I would not be shocked if Philly loses this one. But I will only lean the Bengals with the points.

 

Washington at Browns

Open: CLE -5.5

Current: CLE -7.5 (Bet Washington)

O/U: 45 (Slight Under)

Overview: Through two weeks, the Washington defensive front looks to be the best in the league. They have racked up 11 sacks and should put plenty of pressure on Baker Mayfield this week. For the Browns, they might want to consider a heavy, run-first offense this week. Cleveland put up 215 yards last week against the Bengals and it could be a way to control the clock and avoid Mayfield taking too many hits. Lucky for Baker, Jack Conklin will be back to help protect him. I have this as a very close game so I am going to take the Washington football team with the points.

 

Jets at Colts

Open: IND -7

Current: IND -12.5 (Lean Colts)

O/U: 44 (Under)

Overview: After a lackluster week 1, the Colts showed up in week 2. Now granted, it was against a Vikings but now Indy has a chance to notch another win against a dreadful Jets team. The Jets were once known for having the best defense in the league and now that crown belongs to the Colts. The Jets were not a good team when they had Le’Veon Bell and now they are even worse. Adam Gase is on the list of coaches who will be shown the door this year. This line is chalky but I do think the Colts can limit the jets to 10 or under points here. So a 12-15 point win is not crazy. Leaning the Colts here.

 

Panthers at Chargers

Open: LAC -6.5

Current: LAC -6.5 (Bet Panthers)

O/U: 43.5 (Under)

Overview: How do you follow up a week in which your team doctor punctures your starting QB’s lung and are forced to put your rookie QB into the game only to find ou that he’s probably already better than your starting QB? I’m not sure because it’s literally never happened before. But the Chargers will find out as they host the Panthers this week. Carolina is 0-2 but haven’t looked terrible in their losses. Their defense is definitely inexperienced and can be exploited. Add to that the key injury of Christian McCaffrey as well as the solid play by the aforementioned Chargers rookie QB – Justin Herbert – and it’s looking like a Chargers win this week. But I’m not ready to toss dirt on the McCaffrey-les Panthers. Teddy Bridgewater has been playing amazingly – he just needs to limit his turnovers. He has been helped by the addition of wide receiver Robbie Anderson who has caught for over 100 yards in both games. Mike Davis is a huge downgrade from McCaffrey – but he can catch the ball. So expect Bridgewater to be the focal point of the offense today. The Chargers will need to get more out of the pass rush if they want to win today. I actually think the Panthers could be a good moneyline play today but I’ll take the points and bet Carolina.

 

Cowboys at Seahawks

Open: Sea -3/5

Current: Sea -5 (Lean Seattle)

O/U: 56.5 (Over)

Overview: The Cowboys won’t get the luxury of playing a team that coughs up leads just for fun. They are heading to Seattle to play a Seahawks team that is coming off a big win over the Patriots. Russell Wilson is one of the early season MVPs as he has 9 TDs and only 11 incomplete passes. Both of these teams are dealing with some defensive injuries and both teams can put up points. So should be a high scoring affair. I like Seattle a lot here but the sharp money is all over the Cowboys here so that’s scared me off. I’ll lean the Seahawks here.

 

Lions at Cardinals

Open: Ari -3.5

Current: Ari -5.5 (Bet Arizona)

O/U: 55 (Under)

Overview: Kyler Murray has looked great so far this season. He still runs a bit too much for my liking since I do worry he’s a big hit or an awkward stop away from losing his season. But the story for Arizona isn’t just Murray and his top receiver DeAndre Hopkins. The Cardinals also have a stout defense that is limiting teams to 17.5 points per game. On the other side of the field is a Lions team that is allowing double that. It wouldn’t be terrible if the Detroit offense could keep pace with other teams but it can’t. I like Arizona here to win by at least a TD here. Betting the Cardinals.

 

Bucs at Broncos

Open: TB -3.5

Current: TB-5 (Lean Bucs)

O/U: 42.5 (Over)

Overview: All is still not well in Tompa Bay. The Bucs got the week 2 win but things still didn’t feel quite right with Brady under center there. He’s throwing interceptions and just missing passes he would make last year with less talent. I think he’s still a few weeks away from clicking in the offense. Now the Bucs travel to Denver – where a Drew Lock-less Broncos team – will try to avoid an 0-3 start. Brady has not always played well in the Denver altitude but maybe we’ll see him lean on a friend this week. Gronk has been missing from the offense and this could be a good week for Tom to just lean on familiarity and move the ball down the field. That along with the solid play by Leonard Fournette should be enough to get the win. But even with Driskel in at QB, I don’t think the Broncos will get blown out. Tampa will win and should cover. But it’s not a guarantee to me. I’ll lean the Bucs.

 

Packers at Saints

Open: NO -6.5

Current: NO -3 (Lean Packers)

O/U: 52.5 (Over)

Overview: The Saints are under the microscope after last week’s loss to Vegas. Drew Brees is looking a bit off and as Rich has mentioned before, it could be that he’s mentally checked out already. The veteran QB on the other side of the field looks 7 years younger. Aaron Rodgers has come out and thrown for over 300 yards and 3 TDs a game. The Packers offense is putting up some serious points. I’m not sure it’s sustainable but the Saints have shown that they can give up points. Add to the mix that Michael Thomas is still out for New Orleans and we could see an upset here. I do like the frauds here but the sharps are all over the Saints so I’ll back off and only lean Green Bay.