Degen Show (2/6/2021)
Your favorite Degens give you their 2021 NFL Super Bowl Best Bets. Check back to their NFL futures episode too.
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Max’s 2021 NFL Super Bowl Best Bets
Tampa Bay vs. Kansas City
Spread: KC -3 (Lean Tampa Bay)
Total: 56 (Bet Over)
Overview: In theory, this could be the ultimate passing of the torch game as 43-year-old Tom Brady faces off against 25-year-old Patrick Mahomes. The only problem is, Tom Brady has no intention of retiring this year after making it to his 10th Super Bowl. Brady has won 6 titles and his three losses were to NFC East teams. The loss against the Eagles is a stunning one because, I mean, the fucking Eagles but also because he threw for a Super Bowl career best 505 yards.
His last Super Bowl win was two seasons ago. It was one of his worst performances but he still got the win. He won’t get that luxury this year. A performance like that and the Bucs will be blown out for sure.
If you flash back to week 12, Brady and Mahomes paired up to throw 807 yards and 6 TDs. Now do I expect a repeat of that this week? Not really. One of those three Super Bowl losses that Tom Brady has suffered came at the hands of the defensive coordinator he will be facing this week. And Todd Bowles for Bucs, after suffering all of those years with the Jets, actually has some defensive talent to work with.
Getting to back-to-back Super Bowls is tough. Winning back-to-back is even tougher. The last team to do it was, yeah, you know, Tom Brady’s Patriots. But if any team could do it, Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs would be a solid bet.
Only I don’t have the Chiefs winning this one. I have Tampa Bay edging out the Chiefs by a point here. But I don’t feel right betting them. My gut says the Chiefs win this game and probably cover. So at the expense of sounding lame here, I will only lean Tampa. Besides, I have a futures bet on them already.
Now, since I need to have some action here, I will bet the over. Word of warning here, the sharps are hammering the under. But I have this clearing the 56 by almost a TD. So I feel OK with throwing some cash on the over.
Predicted Score: Tampa Bay 31 – Kansas City 30
Stats To Know
- Tampa Bay ended up 2nd in scoring per game and Kansas City was 5th.
- Tampa Bay (22.3 / ranked 9th) slightly edged the Kansas City (22.4 / ranked 10th) in opponents points per game.
- Tampa Bay ranked 3rd in Turnover Margin while Kansas City was 7th.
- Mahomes threw for 4,740 yards with 38 TDs and 6 INTs. Brady doubled him on INTs (12) and edged him with TDs (40).
- Brady’s 12 INTs was the most he has thrown in a decade.
- Brady has thrown 10 deep TD passes … since Week 13.
- Brady vs. Spagnuolo has not been pretty. Brady’s teams have averaged just 22 points per game in those matchups.
- Todd Bowles’ defense had the 5th highest blitz rate this season. Mahomes was ranked as the best QB against the blitz this season.
- KC wasn’t shy with blitzing either. They were first in Cover 0 plays and pressured Brady on 50% of his dropbacks last game out. They got 3 sacks and 2 INTs from Brady in that game. Not sure if they get those sacks again, but there will be some pressure for sure.
- Travis Kelce has averaged 93 yards per game against Todd Bowles’ defense in his career
- The Chiefs weren’t great against the run … but were good against the style of run plays that Tampa’s offense runs the most.