Degen Show (1/1/22)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 1/1/22
NFL Week 17
Tampa Bay (-13) vs. NY Jets (13)
Spread: Bet $50 Tampa Bay
Total: Lean Over 45
Predicted Score: Tampa Bay 32 – NY Jets 18 (50)
Notes: After suffering an embarrassing 9-0 loss to the Saints, the Bucs bounced back and took it out on the Panthers last week.
The Jets are also coming off a win from last week – their 4th on the season. New York managed to beat the Jaguars. Barely.
So when you ask me how can you bet on a road team, favored by almost 2 TDs, my response is: it’s the Bucs. Versus the Jets.
Tom Brady has a history of taking it to this team. And his lack of weapons last week really didn’t matter as he still managed to throw 232 yards and a TD as the Bucs put up 32 points.
The Jets offense has not been terrible lately. In fact, they managed to put up 9 points against the same Saints’ defense that held Tampa Bay scoreless.
But whatever momentum the Jets had building up their offense will stall out this week. Its partially because of the stout Bucs’ defense and partially to injury.
Both Elijah Moore and Jamison Crowder are expected to miss this game. Without those guys, there’s already a limitation of what can be done offensively.
Then add into the mix Zach Wilson. Who threw for 102 yards last week. 170 the game before that. 145 against Houston. 51 against New England.
You get my point.
I think the Bucs roll here. I am less scared of double-digit spreads this year.
$50 bet on Tampa Bay.
Philadelphia (-4.5) vs. Washington (4.5)
Spread: Bet $50 Philadelphia
Total: Lean Over 44.5
Predicted Score: Philadelphia 26 – Washington 20 (46)
Notes: I sometimes hate the NFL scheduling team and sometimes I love them. Right now, I kind of love what they have done with the NFC East – backloading a lot of the divisional games so its kind of like a mini-round robin tournament for them.
It has not faired well for the Washington as they have lost three in a row – 2 to Dallas and 1 to Philly. For the Eagles, they have gone 3-1 in their last 4 divisional games. That screw up against the Giants a month ago might be what costs them a playoff spot.
But they still have a chance. If they win this week and a few other things go their way, they make it in.
Jalen Hurts is a bit banged up but with his ankle but when he missed a game because it was really bad, the Stache game in and got them a good win. It’s nice to have a solid backup plan.
The gameplan, though, has to be to establish the run. The Eagles were able to run all over Washington last time they played.
Granted, Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard appear to be out. But Boston Scott has the chance to have a big game behind a pretty damn good offensive line.
Divisional games are weird. I know. And taking a road favorite with a hook in there is not my favorite thing to do.
But the Eagles should get it done this week.
$50 bet on Philly.
Atlanta (14) vs. Buffalo (-14)
Spread: Bet $50 Atlanta
Total: Lean Over 44
Predicted Score: Atlanta 18 – Buffalo 29 (47)
Notes: The Falcons have managed to win 7 games this season after winning over the Lions last week. That means their playoff hopes are still alive.
The Bills overtook the AFC East last week with a good win over the Patriots in Foxborough. At 9-6, this team has had a disappointing season so far but could win out to grab a homefield game in the first round.
With their win last week, the Bills have won consecutive games for the first time in a while. In their two wins, the Bills discovered their offensive mojo again. That should continue against the Falcons this week.
Atlanta has 13 players on the Covid-19 list but even without those issues, Atlanta’s defense has not been good all year.
The Falcons rank 24th in total yards allowed per game and 28th in opponent’s points scored per game. Their wins this year have been over the sub .500 teams and their losses have been double-digits against the better teams.
So I can see the Bills winning this one by a lot – just not by this much.
So a $50 bet on the Falcons.
NY Giants (5) vs. Chicago (-5)
Spread: Bet $50 NY Giants
Total: Lean Under 37
Predicted Score: NY Giants 17 – Chicago 19 (36)
Notes: The Giants are mired in a 4-game losing streak and have not looked competitive in this timespan. Their offense has been dreadful and you get the feeling that another regime change could occur in New Jersey in the offseason.
For the Bears, more than likely Matt Nagy will be shown the door after this season. After winning the NFC North in his first season, Nagy has limped to a 21-26 record.
In reality, its not as bad as some other coaches. For example, Joe Judge is 10-21 through 2 seasons with the Giants. But its still bound to ger the guy fired this year.
Both teams will be dealing with QB issues as Justin Fields is out for Chicago and Daniel Jones is out for the Giants. That means an Andy Dalton / Nick Foles combo for the Bears against the platoon of Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm.
Advantage Bears, you’d probably say. And you’re probably right.
Still, I think the Giants can keep this one close enough to cover.
$50 bet on New York.
Arizona (6.5) vs. Dallas (-6.5)
Spread: Bet $50 Arizona
Total: Lean Over 52
Predicted Score: Arizona 26 – Dallas 30 (56)
Notes: The Cardinals have lost 3 in a row. So its time to toss them aside like the shitty team that they are.
I mean, the Rams lost 3 in a row and look how their season has turned out.
Arizona has already made the playoffs. And the thought of losing 4 games in a row is definitely not a good thought. But this team will be fine.
At some point, Deandre Hopkins should return. And perhaps that offense gets back to where it used to be.
They are facing a Dallas defense that is playing well the past few weeks – but I said it the other day too. Their defense has looked good against the Saints, Giants and Washington.
Kyler Murray and crew are just a tad better than those teams. In fact, Murray is 7-0 as a starter at the AT&T Stadium.
Maybe 7-0 is not something to mention though. Since starting the season 7-0, the Cardinals have gone just 3-5. Do they get a win this week?
I’m not sure.
But I do think they can keep this close.
$50 bet on Arizona.
LA Rams (-5) vs. Baltimore (5)
Spread: Lean Baltimore
Total: Lean Over 46.5
Predicted Score: LA Rams 25 – Baltimore 24 (49)
Kansas City (-4) vs. Cincinnati (4)
Spread: Lean Cincinnati
Total: Lean Over 51
Predicted Score: Kansas City 27 – Cincinnati 27 (54)
Las Vegas (7) vs. Indianapolis (-7)
Spread: Lean Indianapolis
Total: Lean Over 44.5
Predicted Score: Las Vegas 19 – Indianapolis 28 (47)
Jacksonville (16) vs. New England (-16)
Spread: Lean Jacksonville
Total: Lean Over 41.5
Predicted Score: Jacksonville 14 – New England 28 (42)
Miami (3.5) vs. Tennessee (-3.5)
Spread: Lean Tennessee
Total: Lean Over 39.5
Predicted Score: Miami 19 – Tennessee 24 (43)
Houston (12) vs. San Francisco (-12)
Spread: Lean Houston
Total: Lean Under 44
Predicted Score: Houston 16 – San Francisco 27 (43)
Denver (7) vs. LA Chargers (-7)
Spread: Lean Denver
Total: Lean Over 45.5
Predicted Score: Denver 20 – LA Chargers 26 (46)
Carolina (6.5) vs. New Orleans (-6.5)
Spread: Lean Carolina
Total: Lean Under 52
Predicted Score: Carolina 18 – New Orleans 21 (39)
Detroit (7.5) vs. Seattle (-7.5)
Spread: Lean Detroit
Total: Lean Under 41.5
Predicted Score: Detroit 20 – Seattle 21 (41)
Minnesota (12.5) vs. Green Bay (-12.5)
Spread: Lean Minnesota
Total: Lean Over 42
Predicted Score: Minnesota 24 – Green Bay 25 (49)