Degen Show (11/18/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 11/18/21
Week 11 Fantasy
Week 10 Recap
Well, DFS went bust thanks to Tom Brady. It’s not the first time that Brady has screwed me over. As a Rams fan, I have dealt with heartbreak at Brady’s well-manicured hands. My risk with Alexander Mattison was also a bust and me paying for Pittsburgh’s defense, when the Dallas Defense was much cheaper and put up 18 more points, was a mistake.
In my standard fantasy league, my team won. No thanks to another stinker by Stafford. But it’ll be the last time he starts for me. With the trade deadline this week I dealt him and Stefon Diggs to pick up Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper.
I also dealt Travis Kelce – which was a big deal considering he’s been my keeper for the past 4 seasons. So my team is still mathematically in there, but as it was constructed, it wasn’t putting up enough points for me to win the tiebreakers.
So either this shakeup will help or be the death knell on a lame season for me.
QB: Ryan Tannehill (TEN – $7800) – The Houston defense actually is not terrible against the pass but they rank 29th in opponent’s points per game and the Titans are one of the better scoring offenses in the league. I am not seeing many value QBs this week since there is a lot of uncertainty in starters and some bad match-ups.
So Tannehill is the QB I have chosen to let me down this week.
RB: D’Ernest Johnson (CLE – $8000) – The Browns lose running backs and don’t miss a beat rushing the ball. They have one of, if not the best o-line in the league and they get to play a Lions’ defense that is 30th in rushing yards allowed per game.
WR: CeeDee Lamb (DAL – $8000) – I don’t hate the Chiefs’ defense but its still not good. Lamb, other than the stinker against the Broncos, has been killing it lately. Of the more expensive receivers this week, I like Lamb’s chances the best.
TE: George Kittle (SF – $6800) – Kelce might be a good play based on his past two weeks. But Kittle has a favorable matchup and is $500 less.
DEF: Titans – $4600 – My quest to add Titans players this week continues by taking their defense. They have put up some good numbers against good teams and if they don’t get lazy this week, they should be able to beat up on the Texans.
Russell Wilson (SEA – $7300) – Until he shows he is healthy I cannot back him. He’s facing a tough Cardinals’ defense and it might be tempting to take a flyer on him on the cheap. But I don’t like that risk.
Dalvin Cook (MIN – $8400) – Just too much money to pay against a division rival with a great defense. I don’t give the Packers credit often but the defense is getting better each week.
RB: D’Onta Foreman (TEN – $6200) – Houston gives up 1.7 rushing TDs per game and 136.9 rushing yards per game. That’s good for second to last in both categories. The Titans might start giving more looks to Adrian Peterson – and he could be a vulture of TDs. But Foreman is worth a value start.
FLEX: Myles Gaskin (MIA – $6200) – Risk / reward here. Gaskin has not played well for a while but he has a chance to break out against a Jets defense that ranks 29th in rushing yards allowed per game. They also give up a league worst 2.1 rushing TDs per game.
WR: DJ Moore (CAR – $6700) – The Washington defense has played better lately but will be interesting to see if DJ Moore can put up some big numbers with Cam at QB this week.
WR: Marvin Jones Jr. (JAC – $5700) – The 49ers defense looked great against the Rams and the Jaguars are not a dangerous offense. But Marvin Jones Jr. has produced in each game and his low price tag is a nice fill-in spot at receiver.
NFL Thursday Night Football
New England (-7) vs. Atlanta (7)
Spread: Bet $50 New England
Total: Bet Over 47.5
Predicted Score: New England 29 – Atlanta 19 (48)
Notes: If you download and listen to every single episode, or, you know, listened to yesterday’s episode, you would know that the Patriots made the biggest leap in our Degen Rank. Mac Jones is progressing each week and the Patriots defense has been playing great lately.
On the flip side, the Falcons have not found any consistency – looking great one week and then getting their asses handed to them by Dallas the next. And if there is a coach that can make things worse for them – it’s Bill.
Matty Ice already has some demons to expel with the thought of playing the Patriots. The last time these teams played was back in 2017. The first time in February – which we all remember. And then later in October where the Patriots dominated them again.
A lot has changed since then in terms of players and coaches but I can guarantee this: Matt Ryan will play a bit more tense seeing that Patriots logo facing him on the other side of the field.
I like New England to go on the road, in this short week and win this one. And I think they cover. $50 bet on the Patriots. And another $50 on the over 47.5 here.
SAS (2.5) at MIN (-2.5)
Pick: Bet $10 SAS
Total: 222.5 (Lean Under – 205)
Predicted Score: SAS 103 – MIN 102
Notes: This was the only game on the board I could even get close to betting. And I still don’t love it. The Spurs have lost 3 games in a row and are just 2-6 on the road. Their road effective field goal percentage is just 49.7% – which is 6% lower than their home EFG%.
But I just can’t trust Minnesota to win 2 games in a row. I was shocked they won yesterday but then again, the Kings are the Kings. Still, the T-Wolves are one of the worst shooting teams in the league and I have the Spurs winning this one.
So an apprehensive moneyline bet on the Spurs.
WAS (7.5) at MIA (-7.5)
Pick: Lean WAS
Total: 209.5 (Lean Under – 201)
Predicted Score: WAS 102 – MIA 99
GSW (-8.5) at CLE (8.5)
Pick: Lean GSW
Total: 207.5 (Lean Under – 204)
Predicted Score: GSW 104 – CLE 100
LAC (-1.5) at MEM (1.5)
Pick: Lean LAC
Total: 219.5 (Lean Under – 213)
Predicted Score: LAC 111 – MEM 102
PHI (7.5) at DEN (-7.5)
Pick: Lean DEN
Total: 209.5 (Lean Over – 210)
Predicted Score: PHI 101 – DEN 109
New Jersey Devils (165) at Florida Panthers (-185)
Pick: Bet $10 Florida
Notes: The Devils strung together some good wins but now have lost 2 in a row. They are decent on the road this season but Florida is a perfect 8-0 after beating the Islanders two days ago. It’s chalky but they should remain perfect after tonight.
$10 bet on the Panthers.
Winnipeg Jets (135) at Edmonton Oilers (-155)
Pick: Bet $10 Winnipeg
Notes: Winnipeg just stomped on the Oilers but now it shifts to Edmonton where the Oilers are 6-1. Winnipeg is not a strong road team but still, with this plus line, there is value in taking them today. $10 bet on the Jets.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-135) at Philadelphia Flyers (115)
Pick: Lean Tampa Bay
Carolina Hurricanes (-150) at Anaheim Ducks (130)
Pick: Lean Carolina
Pittsburgh Penguins (-150) at Montreal Canadiens (130)
Pick: Lean Pittsburgh
New York Rangers (155) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-175)
Pick: Lean Toronto
Calgary Flames (-175) at Buffalo Sabres (155)
Pick: Lean Calgary
Dallas Stars (120) at Minnesota Wild (-140)
Pick: Lean Minnesota
San Jose Sharks (140) at St. Louis Blues (-160)
Pick: Lean St. Louis
Columbus Blue Jackets (-155) at Arizona Coyotes (135)
Pick: Lean Columbus
Detroit Red Wings (145) at Vegas Golden Knights (-165)
Pick: Lean Vegas