Degen Show (11/25/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 11/25/21
NFL Week 12 Fantasy
Week 11 Recap
My week bombed. Tannehill threw 4 INTs, D’Ennest Johnson, CeeDee Lamb and D’Onta Foreman were all busts. And the Titans scored 0 points on defense.
QB: Jalen Hurts ($8400) – Hurts is the most expensive QB this week and it makes sense. He’s playing great and the Giants’ defense is trash against the pass. He’s too rich for my blood but he’s still worth it.
RB: Joe Mixon (CIN – $8000) – Mixon has been on a tear lately and is facing a Steelers defense that ranks 26th in opponent’s rushing yards per game.
RB: James Robinson (JAX – $7600) – Robinson has had a few rough last couple of weeks but faces off against a pretty terrible Falcons defense.
WR: Diontae Johnson (PIT – $7100) – The Bengals’ pass defense has gotten worse the past month Diontae Johnson had a great game last week. Hope he can do it again.
TE: George Kittle (SF – $6700) – By default, Kittle is the best tight end this week as Kelce is on a bye and Waller plays Thursday.
DEF: Rams ($4400) – Ah fuck it. Down with the ship here. This will be the week Rodgers goes off but I might as well have some faith with my team.
QB: Ryan Tannehill (TEN – $7200) – Tannehill is coming off a rough start against Houston and now faces a New England defense that ranks 6th in passing defense. For what you are paying for him, its too much risk and there are other value plays out there.
RB: Jonathan Taylor (IND – $9800) – Yeah, he’s the best running in the game right now. And he’s coming off 5 TDs against a Bills’ defense that was supposed to be good against the run. So now he faces the best rush defense in the league.
There’s a good chance he does break through but for this amount of money, I think it’s too much risk for me.
WR: Davante Adams (GB – $8700) and Cooper Kupp (LAR – $9500) – These guys are the two most expensive wide receivers at FanDuel and playing respectively good defenses.
Adams I banged up and will probably draw Jalen Ramsey most of the day. And the Green Bay defense is solid and will look to neutralize Stafford’s security blanker.
QB: Carson Wentz (IND – $7300) – Well, I am already all-in on the Colts as a contender and now Tampa is in town. Tampa ranks 25th in passing TDs allowed per game and 17th in passing yards allowed. They have played better lately but I like Wentz to move the ball this week.
RB: Rex Burkhead (HOU – $5700) – The Jets rushing defense is awesome. Houston’s running game is in disarray but seems like Burkhead has a chance to lead the way this week.
WR: DJ Moore (CAR – $6700) – Moore had some good chemistry with Cam last week and while Miami’s defense is playing better lately, it still can be thrown on. Hoping Cam can connect with Moore some more this week.
WR: Devonta Smith (PHI – $6400) – Smith had an off week last week but was really good prior to that. Hurts has a good connection with him and the Giants’ pass defense has been awful lately.
Chicago (-3) vs. Detroit (3)
Spread: Bet $50 Detroit
Total: Lean Under 41.5
Predicted Score: Chicago 17 – Detroit 17 (34)
Notes: Jared Goff will reclaim the starting QB spot as the winless Lions team hope to get their first win of the season. The Bears will send the Red Rifle out there as Justin Fields deals with a rib injury.
This could be the last game for Bear’ coach Matt Nagy – particularly if he loses today – based on a report that surfaces a few days ago. But, I mean, he’s been a dead man walking for awhile now.
It would be good to see the poor fucker put out of his misery on Black Friday.
I’ll say this about Goff – and I know I have been a harsh critic of his for years – but looking at how Tim Boyle played last week, the Lions do not have any offensive weapons and Goff has done decently with that shit.
Now I know from experience that he can also shit the bed when he has a ton of weapons, but it’s Thanksgiving so let me focus on the positive and not mention that he hasn’t thrown for over 300 yards since week 1.
Or that he has 8 TDs and 6 INTs on the season. Or his 12.1 QBR in his last start. Or that he holds on to the ball too much and has been sacked 11 times over his last 3 starts.
Anyway, I think this game could end in a stupid fucking tie. So a $50 bet on the Lions.
Las Vegas (7.5) vs. Dallas (-7.5)
Spread: Bet $50 Dallas
Total: Lean Over 51.5
Predicted Score: Las Vegas 21 – Dallas 31 (52)
Notes: Now that the Cowboys got passed their #1 Degen rank, they can breathe easy and get back to winning. Just don’t win too much or you could find yourself back in the #1 Degen rank again.
They should get back to their winning ways today as they play a Raiders team that is spiraling. They have lost 3 games in a row and are dealing with too much drama for a single season.
Part of it is that they fail to convert 3rd downs and conversely on defense, they allow their opponents to complete 3rd downs.
That’s not a recipe for success.
Neither team is playing exceptional football right now. They have 1 collective win between them in the month of November.
Amari Cooper won’t be able to show up his former team as he’s still out with The Vid, but I think Dallas’ offense should be able to get right – like it did against Atlanta following the Denver loss.
$50 bet on the Cowboys.
Buffalo (-6.5) vs. New Orleans (6.5)
Spread: Bet $50 New Orleans
Total: Lean Over 45
Predicted Score: Buffalo 30 – New Orleans 25 (55)
Notes: Buffalo will look to shake off their embarrassing loss to the Colts last week. The Bills are the only team to be #1 in Degen rank and then drop out of the top 10 altogether. And there’s a reason for that. Josh Allen.
If we get in the rewind machine, we can remember in the season totals episode where Arch believed Allen would regress. Well, yep, that definitely happened.
Mostly its turnovers killing him. He gives the ball up, they lose.
Buffalo supposedly has a great rush defense but Jonathan Taylor proved that false last week. Maybe the Bills remember how to stop the run this week as a good Saints running game will try to blow the roof off the Superdome.
Ultimately, I think the Bills get the win. I just don’t have them covering. $50 bet on the Saints.