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Degen Show Part (4/3/21)
Your favorite Degens give you their Sports Bet Picks for 4/3/21. Listen to the Degen’s NBA win totals episode, their MLB futures episode and Max’s NHL Power rankings post.
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 4/3/21
NBA
OKC (11.5) at POR (-11.5)
Pick: Bet $20 OKC
Total: 227.5 (Lean Over – 228)
Predicted Score: OKC 115 – POR 113
Overview: Portland got trounced last night by Milwaukee but they were playing much better prior to that. OKC also got beaten badly last night but has not been terrible on the road this season. This is too many points for Portland here. They rarely cover double digit lines when they win games and even a depleted OKC team should be able to keep this within 10.
MIN (11.5) at PHI (-11.5)
Pick: Bet $20 PHI
Total: 228.5 (Lean Under – 222)
Predicted Score: MIN 105 – PHI 117
Overview: Joel Embiid is questionable for today. It looks like he could play and maybe against a team like Minnesota would allow him to only play a little bit to get back in shape. The T-Wolves just lost by 12 last night and dropped to 5-20 on the road. Philly is 19-4 at home and shooting 56% EFG% at home thie past month (5-2 record in that span).
DAL (-6.5) at WAS (6.5)
Pick: Lean DAL
Total: 228.5 (Lean Under – 221)
Predicted Score: DAL 114 – WAS 107
Overview: Dallas played last night so not sure if Porzingis plays in the back-to-back. Bradley Beal is still dealing with a hip issue and is questionable for Washington. Russell Westbrook has been on a tear lately but the Wizards have not seen results. Dallas is the hotter team and is shooting much better in EFG%. That’s with Luka and Porzingis playing, though. This is Dallas’ 5th straight road game. They probably get the win (and maybe cover) but I’m not in love with it.
CLE (12.5) at MIA (-12.5)
Pick: Lean CLE
Total: 204.5 (Lean Over – 207)
Predicted Score: CLE 101 – MIA 106
Overview: Miami has won 3 in a row and they’ve started to shoot better. Cleveland has lost 4 in a row and besides a close loss to the Kings – they yave been beaten handily in most games recently. Still, that’s a lot of points to ask from a Miami team that is defense first.
NYK (-2.5) at DET (2.5)
Pick: Lean DET
Total: 206.5 (Lean Over – 207)
Predicted Score: NYK 104 – DET 103
Overview: Meh.
IND (5.5) at SAS (-5.5)
Pick: Lean IND
Total: 222.5 (Lean Over – 227)
Predicted Score: IND 113 – SAS 114
Overview: Domantas Sabonis injured his ankle in last night’s loss to Charlotte. The Spurs are only 12-15 at home this season and continue to be an inconsistent team.
ORL (16.5) at UTA (-16.5)
Pick: Lean ORL
Total: 215.5 (Lean Under – 212)
Predicted Score: ORL 101 – UTA 111
Overview: This is Orlando’s 4th straight road game. So far, they are 2-1 and their loss was a close one. But Utah is riding an 8 game winning streak and is 21-2 at home. The won again last night but didn’t cover the big line. I have them winning by double digits tonight but it’s too rich for my blood.
MIL (-7) at SAC (7)
Pick: Lean SAC
Total: 239 (Lean Under – 226)
Predicted Score: MIL 114 – SAC 112
Overview: Panther says fuck the Bucks. I say fuck the Kings.
NHL
Pittsburgh Penguins (105) at Boston Bruins (-116)
Pick: Bet Boston
Notes: Pittsburgh is hot right now and downed Boston 4-1 just two days ago. The Bruins still dealing with a slew of injuries but are 9-5-2 at home. I just don’t see the Bruins losing 2 straight at home – even to a Pittsburgh team that looks legit right now.
Columbus Blue Jackets (134) at Florida Panthers (-149)
Pick: Bet Florida
Notes: Florida is 12-4-3 at home and have won 4 straight. Granted, that was Detroit and Dallas they beat – but Columbus isn’t that much better than either of those teams. The Blue Jackets got a surprise win over Tampa this past week but it was their lone with the past 5 games.
Dallas Stars (138) at Carolina Hurricanes (-153)
Pick: Lean Dallas
Notes: I like Dallas here is a possible dog but that value is a bit too low and going against a team that has only lost once at home this season.
Detroit Red Wings (317) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-379)
Pick: Lean Detroit
Notes: Detroit +1.5 still pays a positive number. Just saying.
Chicago Blackhawks (109) at Nashville Predators (-120)
Pick: Lean Chicago
Ottawa Senators (198) at Montreal Canadiens (-225)
Pick: Lean Montreal
Philadelphia Flyers (154) at New York Islanders (-172)
Pick: Lean Philadelphia
New York Rangers (-247) at Buffalo Sabres (216)
Pick: Lean New York
St. Louis Blues (170) at Colorado Avalanche (-200)
Pick: Lean Colorado
Minnesota Wild (137) at Vegas Golden Knights (-152)
Pick: Lean Minnesota
San Jose Sharks (105) at Los Angeles Kings (-125)
Pick: Lean Los Angeles
MLB
TOR (145) at NYY (-158)
Stripling vs. C. Kluber
Pick: Lean NYY
CLE (-162) at DET (149)
Plesac vs. J. Teheran
Pick: Lean CLE
BAL (154) at BOS (-168)
Harvey vs. T. Houck
Pick: Lean BAL
TEX (142) at KC (-154)
Arihara vs. M. Minor
Pick: Bet TEX
PIT (155) at CHC (-168)
Anderson vs. J. Arrieta
Pick: Lean CHC
ATL (-111) at PHI (103)
Morton vs. Z. Wheeler
Pick: Lean ATL
HOU (-129) at OAK (119)
McCullers Jr. vs. C. Irvin
Pick: Lean HOU
STL (109) at CIN (-118)
Wainwright vs. T. Mahle
Pick: Bet CIN
TB (-112) at MIA (103)
Hill vs. E. Hernandez
Pick: Bet MIA
MIN (110) at MIL (-119)
Berrios vs. C. Burnes
Pick: Lean MIN
LAD (-233) at COL (210)
Buehler vs. J. Gray
Pick: Lean LAD
ARI (181) at SD (-199)
Smith vs. J. Musgrove
Pick: Bet SD
CWS (-120) at LAA (111)
Lynn vs. A. Cobb
Pick: Bet CWS
SF (-114) at SEA (106)
Webb vs. C. Flexen
Pick: Bet SF