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Degen Show Part (1/18/2021)
Your favorite Degens give you their NBA Bet Picks for 1/18/21. Listen to their NBA win totals episode for more NBA action.
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Max’s NBA Bet Picks for 1/18/21
Bets
Orlando at New York
Spread: ORL -1 (Bet Orlando)
Total: 207 (Lean Over – 211)
Predicted Score: Magic 108 – Knicks 103
Overview: New York put a pretty big beatdown on the Celtics yesterday and Orlando is on a 5-game losing streak so the public is jumping on the Knicks today in early betting. I think this is dangerous because the Knicks have proved to be a very inconsistent team. They have managed to get above 100 points in their last 3 games but prior to that, their offense was dreadful.
The Knicks defense is proving to be pretty damn good so far. Which is no surprise with Thibs as their coach. Orlando hasn’t been good at much lately. But streaks get broken eventually and I think Orlando has a good shot to scrape out a win today.
I’m betting $20 on the Magic and leaning the over here.
Minnesota at Atlanta
Spread: ATL -7.5 (Bet Minnesota)
Total: 227.5 (Lean Under – 225)
Predicted Score: Timberwolves 113 – Hawks 112
Overview: Both teams have lost 4 of 5 and really have not looked good at all recently. Karl Anthony Towns and Ricky Rubio are out for Minnesota meaning D’Angelo Russell will go tit-for-tat with Trae Young. Young has been part of the Hawks’ problems recently. Atlanta’s offensive efficiency continues to plummet and their effective field goal percentage now ranks 25th in the league.
Minnesota’s defense is pretty bad and the Hawks have enough talent to play defense – they just have chosen not to lately. Atlanta is 2-3 at home and their home metrics are worse than their road metrics. I just think this is too many points for them to be giving up.
I’ll bet $20 on the Timberwolves and lean the under.
Milwaukee at Brooklyn
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Spread: MIL -2 (Bet Brooklyn)
Total: 237.5 (Bet Under – 232)
Predicted Score: Nets 117 – Bucks 115
Overview: The Nets have won 3 in a row with Durant back in the lineup. And James Harden’s debut seemed to go pretty good. Harden seems motivated – for now – and the Nets will have some short term success as long as he’s not grumpy. Speaking of grumpy, Kyrie is still not back yet though rumors say he could be soon.
Milwaukee has won 4 in a row and are in the top of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Both of these teams are very good when it comes to effective field goal percentage but Brooklyn’s has been lights out since KD’s return.
This should be a fun one and a close one. I have Brooklyn coming out with the win so I will bet $20 on them and take the points. I am also going to double dip and bet $20 on the under because Nets under plays have been awesome for me so far.
Golden State at LA Lakers
Spread: LAL -9 (Bet Golden State)
Total: 225 (Lean Over – 227)
Predicted Score: Warriors 114 – Lakers 113
Overview: The Warriors started to look like a dangerous team and then they hit a stretch of good teams. They managed to beat Toronto and the Clippers but then their offense stumbled against the Pacers and Nuggets. And now they face arguably the best defensive team in basketball.
The Lakers rank 1st in defensive efficiency, 3rd in opponents points allowed per game, 2nd in opponents floor %, and 2nd in opponent’s effective field goal percentage. The Lakers have won 5 in a row and look absolutely unstoppable.
Which means I expect a down game and Steph Curry and the Warriors will want to go all out against the best in the league. I do have Golden State winning this one but I am going to take these points and run. I’ll bet $20 on Golden State here.
Leans
San Antonio at Portland
Spread: SA -1.5 (Lean Portland)
Total: 224 (Lean Over 225)
Predicted Score: Blazers 113 – Spurs 112
Detroit at Miami
Spread: MIA -5.5 (Lean Detroit)
Total: 218.5 (Lean Under – 218)
Predicted Score: Pistons 110 – Heat 108
Phoenix at Memphis
Spread: PHO -3 (Lean Memphis)
Total: 223 (Lean Under – 217)
Predicted Score: Suns 109 – Grizzlies 108
Dallas at Toronto
Spread: TOR -3.5 (Lean Dallas)
Total: 218.5 (Lean Over – 219)
Predicted Score: Raptors 110 – Mavs 109
Houston at Chicago
Spread: CHI -1.5 (Lean Chicago)
Total: 228 (Lean Over – 233)
Predicted Score: Bulls 118 – Rockets 115
