Degen Show Part (2/19/21)
Your favorite Degens give you their NBA Bet Picks for 2/19/21 and there’s some hockey picks below too. Listen to their NBA win totals episode for more NBA action.
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Max’s NBA Bet Picks for 2/19/21
Golden State (-4.5) at Orlando (4.5)
Pick: Bet $20 Golden State
Total: 225.5 (Lean Under – 223)
Predicted Score: Golden State 117 – Orlando 106
Overview: The last time these two teams played the line was Golden State -6.5. They won by 6. Yes, it’s still a sore spot. So now I look at the Warriors on the road – possibly without Draymond Green who is listed as questionable with an ankle injury – and say to myself, “Max, are you really going to bet on the Warriors?”
Well, Max, I say to myself, your fucking Excel sheet says they should win by 11. So yes, you should bet them. But remember the 6, Max? Remember the fucking 6? It’s a good point, Max, and I am genuinely concerned that you are talking to yourself Max but that’s what betting on the NBA does to you.
Golden State is not a great road team. They are 5-7 and their offensive and defensive metrics are way down compared to playing at home. Orlando is still not completely healthy but they put in a solid effort against the Knicks in a win two days ago. I worry that if Green doesn’t play, the defense goes to shit tonight for the Warriors. But did I mention I have them winning by 11?
Fuck it. $20 on the Warriors to cover.
Oklahoma City (11) at Milwaukee (-11)
Pick: Bet $20 Oklahoma City
Total: 232.5 (Lean Under – 227)
Predicted Score: Milwaukee 117 – Oklahoma City 110
Overview: The Bucks are in desperate need of a win. They should get one tonight but in a back-to-back, favored by double digits, can they get a blowout win? Not without Jrue Holiday.
Looking at this team try to defend guards right now is brutal. VanVleet did it to them 2 games ago and when they focused on him last night, Powell stepped up and was the killer. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander didn’t play when OKC beat Milwaukee 5 days ago and Justin Jackson torched the Bucks in his place.
OKC’s offense is fairly similar at home and on the road but their defense has been markedly better. Without the threat of Holiday, they can play a bit more aggressive with Giannis and Middleton – sending Horford and Bazely out of the paint as needed and daring Milwaukee to drive to the basket.
Am I expecting a repeat of that game? No. Milwaukee should get the win. But they should have got the win yesterday too and they didn’t. Betting $20 on OKC with the points.
Chicago (9.5) at Philadelphia (-9.5)
Pick: Lean Chicago
Total: 229.5 (Lean Over – 231)
Predicted Score: Philadelphia 116 – Chicago 115
Notes: Ben Simmons listed as probable. This was almost a bet for me…
Atlanta (4.5) at Boston (-4.5)
Pick: Lean Atlanta
Total: 226.5 (Lean Under – 223)
Predicted Score: Atlanta 112 – Boston 111
Overview: I should be bettting Atlanta here but I just don’t trust them.
Denver (-8.5) at Cleveland (8.5)
Pick: Lean Cleveland
Total: 220.5 (Lean Over – 221)
Predicted Score: Denver 113 – Cleveland 108
Detroit (5) at Memphis (-5)
Pick: Lean Detroit
Total: 222 (Lean Over – 223)
Predicted Score: Memphis 112 – Detroit 111
Phoenix (-3) at New Orleans (3)
Pick: Lean New Orleans
Total: 230.5 (Lean Under – 227)
Predicted Score: Phoenix 114 – New Orleans 113
Notes: My sheet says to bet New Orleans. But I can’t trust them.
Toronto (-3.5) at Minnesota (3.5)
Pick: Lean Toronto
Total: 231.5 (Lean Under – 224)
Predicted Score: Toronto 114 – Minnesota 110
Notes: Toronto in a back-to-back and Kyle Lowry is doubtful with an ankle injury.
Utah (-2.5) at LA Clippers (2.5)
Pick: Lean LA Clippers
Total: 225.5 (Lean Under – 223)
Predicted Score: Utah 112 – LA Clippers 111
Notes: Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are listed as questionable.
Max’s Salty NHL Bets for 2/19/21
Another winning day. I went 5-4 in picks and 2-1 in bets (up $13.33 on the day). For the season, I am 136-102 in picks, 38-30 in bets and up $133.12 (with base $20 bets).
Chicago Blackhawks (178) at Carolina Hurricanes (-200)
Pick: Bet Chicago
Notes: This is a razor thin one to me and value play is Chicago. While I have Carolina edging out a win (and all of the money is on them) I think the payout is worth the risk.
Florida Panthers (-176) at Detroit Red Wings (157)
Pick: Lean Florida
Notes: I do have Florida winning but it’s much closer than you think. At -157 it wasn’t enough to sway me on to Detroit (also almost all of the money is coming in on Florida while public is split).
Edmonton Oilers (102) at Calgary Flames (-112)
Pick: Bet Calgary
Winnipeg Jets (101) at Vancouver Canucks (-111)
Pick: Lean Winnipeg