Degen Show Part (2/27/21)
Your favorite Degens give you their NBA Bet Picks for 2/27/21 and there’s some hockey picks below too. Listen to their NBA win totals episode for more NBA action.
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Max’s NBA Bet Picks for 2/27/21
Denver (-7) at Oklahoma City (7)
Pick: Bet $20 Oklahoma City
Total: 225.5 (Lean Under – 223)
Predicted Score: Denver 112 – Oklahoma City 111
Overview: Denver is only 5-5 over their last 10 (3-7 ATS). OKC is 6-4 ATS and have won 3 of 5 games. They played last night so I doubt they win – but getting 7 at home against a Denver team that is playing mediocre basketball right now seems like the right play.
Denver’s defense has struggled lately and they rank 24th in opponent’s effective field goal %. In their recent games, OKC has shot much higher over their season average – so there will be regression – but playing Denver’s defense should mean not a full regression.
I have Denver winning this game but not by enough to cover. $20 bet on OKC.
New Orleans (-4.5) at San Antonio (4.5)
Pick: Bet $20 San Antonio
Total: 228.5 (Lean Under – 225)
Predicted Score: San Antonio 114 – New Orleans 111
Overview: Demar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge are listed as questionable. DeRozan is mourning the death of his father. If they play, I like the Spurs (despite being only 7-8 at home). Athletes tend to have dedication games after losing a loved one so if DeRozan plays, he could put up a big game. Both DeRozan and Aldridge are trade targets from playoff teams and if they want to chase a title, they will want to play big minutes.
New Orleans is 5-11 on the road this year and while their offense has been clicking lately, their defense continues to plummet. San Antonio is 10-5 ATS as a dog this year and I do have them winning here – but I will take the points and bet $20 on the Spurs.
Dallas (3.5) at Brooklyn (-3.5)
Pick: Bet $20 Brooklyn
Total: 238.5 (Lean Under – 232)
Predicted Score: Brooklyn 120 – Dallas 112
Overview: I’ll save Panther the time of saying “this line seems suspiciously low.” And I really don’t care. Even without Durant, the Nets are slaying teams. They are 13-5 at home and recently, they have been slaying both good and bad teams.
The Mavs are neither good or bad. They are the Shrodinger’s cat of the NBA. They are both bad and good at the same time. Recently, they have been playing much better but in a no-show against Philly two days ago, they showed us what much of their season has been. Mediocrity.
Porzingis is questionable again and continues to have trade murmurs around him. So who knows if he even suits up tonight. Luka will put on a show but Luka against Kyrie and Harden won’t be enough for Dallas.
$20 bet on the Nets. As for the total, fuck the total.
Meaningless Leans
Cleveland (10) at Philadelphia (-10)
Pick: Lean Philadelphia
Total: 223.5 (Lean Over – 225)
Predicted Score: Philadelphia 118 – Cleveland 107
Notes: Philly is 14-2 (11-5 ATS) at home and 14-11-1 ATS as favorites this season. Cleveland is 3-12 on the road and 3-12 ATS on the road. They have won their last 2 games but prior to that, they lost by big double digits.
Minnesota (4.5) at Washington (-4.5)
Pick: Lean Minnesota
Total: 236 (Lean Under – 231)
Predicted Score: Washington 117 – Minnesota 114
Notes: Minnesota has lost 6 in a row and all 6 were losses ATS too. They are 1-9 in their last 10 and 3-7 ATS. Wizards are only 2-5 ATS as favorites this year but have been better lately (winners of 7 of their last 10).
Utah (-10.5) at Orlando (10.5)
Pick: Lean Orlando
Total: 217.5 (Lean Over – 219)
Predicted Score: Utah 113 – Orlando 106
Indiana (1) at New York (-1)
Pick: Lean Indiana
Total: 216.5 (Lean Under – 216)
Predicted Score: Indiana 111 – New York 105
Notes: NY has lost a few games lately but are 6-4 over their last 10 and 7-3 ATS. The Pacers are 3-7 SU/ATS. Metrics say Pacers should win but sharps are on NY.
Max’s Salty NHL Bets for 2/27/21
3-0 in picks and 1-0 in bets (up $14.82). On the season, 165-127 in picks, 45-37 in bets and up $144.19. My last 7 days: 27-23 in picks, 7-5 in bets and up $51.07.
Washington Capitals (-133) at New Jersey Devils (120)
Pick: Bet Washington
Calgary Flames (-143) at Ottawa Senators (129)
Pick: Lean Calgary
Philadelphia Flyers (-139) at Buffalo Sabres (126)
Pick: Lean Philadelphia
Columbus Blue Jackets (109) at Nashville Predators (-120)
Pick: Lean Nashville
Dallas Stars (164) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-184)
Pick: Lean Dallas
Toronto Maple Leafs (-114) at Edmonton Oilers (104)
Pick: Bet Toronto
Carolina Hurricanes (-114) at Florida Panthers (103)
Pick: Bet Florida
Pittsburgh Penguins (102) at New York Islanders (-113)
Pick: Lean New York
Detroit Red Wings (167) at Chicago Blackhawks (-187)
Pick: Bet Detroit
Los Angeles Kings (149) at Minnesota Wild (-170)
Pick: Lean Minnesota
Colorado Avalanche (-170) at Arizona Coyotes (149)
Pick: Lean Colorado
Vegas Golden Knights (-200) at Anaheim Ducks (178)
Pick: Lean Vegas
Montreal Canadiens (-133) at Winnipeg Jets (120)
Pick: Bet Montreal
St. Louis Blues (-159) at San Jose Sharks (143)
Pick: Lean San Jose