Degen Show Part (4/9/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 4/9/21
IND (-4.5) at ORL (4.5)
Pick: Bet $20 IND
Total: 217.5 (Lean Over – 231)
Predicted Score: IND 118 – ORL 113
Notes: Brogdon and Sabonis are both listed as questionable for tonight for Indiana. Neither of them played in the Pacers’ win over Minnesota the other night. The Holidays and LeVert picked up the slack. I am expecting for at least Sabonis to return tonight but even if he doesn’t, the Pacers should have enough to win and cover this one. Indy is fairly good on the road and in Orlando’s 3-game skid, they have not looked competitive. Add to the mix that Otto Porter Jr. will miss the game for the Magic and this is looking like a $20 bet on the Pacers for me.
SAS (6.5) at DEN (-6.5)
Pick: Bet $20 DEN
Total: 218.5 (Lean Over – 220)
Predicted Score: SAS 105 – DEN 115
Notes: Jamal Murray is questionable with a knee issue tonight for Denver but even without him, the Nuggets were able to beat the Spurs by 10 just 2 days ago. Now, I am leery of double-dipping here. I hit on Denver in that game and my metrics say they win again by about 10 tonight. But the Spurs have dropped 4 in a row and it was the loss to the Cavs that has me worried for them. They have way too many injuries and not sure how much fight they have left in them. $20 bet on Denver.
MEM (-2) at NYK (2)
Pick: Bet $20 MEM
Total: 214.5 (Lean Under – 212)
Predicted Score: MEM 109 – NYK 103
Notes: Justise Winslow is our for Memphis – which should allow for a Randle to do even more damage. But not sure if that will be enough for New York. They aren’t playing great basketball right now and their EFG % is down to 49% over the past 2 weeks. Memphis has played very well on the road lately. I am a tad worried that this is their 4th straight road game, but they should get it done today for their 5th straight win.
MIN (8.5) at BOS (-8.5)
Pick: Lean MIN
Total: 228.5 (Lean Under – 224)
Predicted Score: MIN 109 – BOS 115
Notes: Evan Fournier will be out for Boston due to COVID-19 protocols.
CHI (2.5) at ATL (-2.5)
Pick: Lean CHI
Total: 226.5 (Lean Over – 230)
Predicted Score: CHI 114 – ATL 116
Notes: Chicago played last night and dominated Toronto but no players expected to rest today. Atlanta dealing with a slew of injuries (Gallinari – questionable, Capela – questionable, Collins – out, Dunn – out, Reddish – out).
PHI (-7.5) at NOP (7.5)
Pick: Lean NOP
Total: 225.5 (Lean Under – 220)
Predicted Score: PHI 112 – NOP 108
Notes: Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram both questionable for the Pelicans tonight.
CHA (9.5) at MIL (-9.5)
Pick: Lean CHA
Total: 225.5 (Lean Under – 216)
Predicted Score: CHA 109 – MIL 107
Notes: Milwaukee is coming off that road loss to Dallas yesterday. Charlotte is still without Gordon Hayward.
WAS (4.5) at GSW (-4.5)
Pick: Lean WAS
Total: 241 (Lean Under – 223)
Predicted Score: WAS 111 – GSW 112
Notes: Bradley Beal is probable for tonight.
HOU (13.5) at LAC (-13.5)
Pick: Lean HOU
Total: 224.5 (Lean Under – 221)
Predicted Score: HOU 107 – LAC 114
Notes: Clippers got a good win over Phoenix last night so interesting to see if anyone rests. Might not matter since John Wall is out for Houston.
To update on my season so far. Had an off day yesterday (like my worst this season): 1-9 in overall picks and 0-2 in bets. Despite that, I am 324-285 (53.20%) in picks, 93-72 (56.36%) in bets and up $245.57 in $20 base bets.
Pittsburgh Penguins (-170) at New Jersey Devils (150)
Pick: Bet $20 Devils
Notes: The Devils bounced back and beat the Sabres last night. In general, they have not looked good. And at home, the Devils have only 4 wins this season. The Penguins are coming off a solid game against the Rangers but I still don’t like them on the road and in a back-to-back, I think there could be a letdown here. There is enough value to bet the Devils. $20 bet on New Jersey.
Minnesota Wild (-117) at St. Louis Blues (107)
Pick: Bet $20 Wild
Notes: The Wild are a decent road team and should get a win over the hapless Blues. Yes, St. Louis beat Vegas on Wednesday to given them 5 home wins on the season. Only 1 more than the Devils. The Wild are coming off a big win over Colorado and I like them again tonight. $20 bet on Minnesota.
Washington Capitals (-240) at Buffalo Sabres (200)
Pick: Lean Capitals
Notes: Washington should get this win but hate that chalk.
Arizona Coyotes (198) at Vegas Golden Knights (-224)
Pick: Lean Golden Knights
Notes: Vegas has not played well recently and that payout for Arizona looks nice. But I just can’t get to the implied probability to risk it.
Colorado Avalanche (-356) at Anaheim Ducks (300)
Pick: Lean Avalanche
Notes: Lots of money on Anaheim trying to cash a lottery ticket. The sportsbooks seem to like that. A lean on Colorado.
Los Angeles Kings (113) at San Jose Sharks (-125)
Pick: Lean Kings
Notes: Sharks have been playing better lately and beat the Kings twice last week. I like LA to bounce back but not enough to bet them.
NYY (-135) at TB (124)
Pitchers: C. Kluber vs. R. Hill
Pick: Lean TB
WSH (252) at LAD (-283)
Pitchers: J. Ross vs. W. Buehler
Pick: Lean LAD
COL (141) at SF (-154)
Pitchers: A. Gomber vs. J. Cueto
Pick: Lean COL
LAA () at TOR ()
Pitchers: A. Heaney vs. T. Zeuch
DET (162) at CLE (-177)
Pitchers: J. Teheran vs. Z. Plesac
Pick: Lean CLE
PHI (116) at ATL (-126)
Pitchers: Z. Wheeler vs. C. Morton
Pick: Bet $20 PHI
SD (-185) at TEX (169)
Pitchers: J. Musgrove vs. K. Arihara
Pick: Bet $20 SD
OAK (149) at HOU (-163)
Pitchers: S. Manaea vs. L. McCullers Jr.
Pick: Lean HOU
CIN (-135) at ARI (124)
Pitchers: T. Mahle vs. T. Widener
Pick: Bet $20 CIN