Degen Show Part (7/17/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 7/17/21
MIL (4) at PHX (-4)
Pick: Bet $50 PHX ML (-167)
Total: 219 (Lean Under – 217)
Predicted Score: MIL 108 – PHX 109
Notes: Milwaukee has managed to make this a series with consecutive wins at home. But now they head to Phoenix where a win could seal their championship. Game 4 was not a pretty game at all but the Bucks ended up winning – and covering – after clawing back from a 4th quarter deficit.
The Bucks are not a very good road team. This season, they were 25-22 straight up and 19-27-1 ATS. Guys like Middleton and Holiday seem to be the biggest culprits of their road woes – averaging a combined 6 points less per game and shooting well below their home EFG%.
As for the Suns, we know that homecourt matters. Utah and Philly were teams that dominated at home but let’s not shortchange Phoenix. They were 33-8 at home this year and 27-14 ATS as home favorites. The Suns also do quite well after a loss. Take out their 4th quarter meltdown the other day, and they get that win. I think they get the win today instead.
$50 moneyline bet on the Suns and also eye them to cover the spread in the first half. I think this will look much like Game 3 from Milwaukee.
SD (-130) at WSH (120)
Pitchers: B. Snell (ERA: 5.16 – Road ERA: 9.64 – Avg. ML: -127) vs. P. Corbin (ERA: 5.5 – Home ERA: 4.99 – Avg. ML: 107)
Pick: Bet $10 SD
Notes: Padres brought Blake Snell in to lead the staff and he’s bombed this year. Thankfully for him, Pat Corbin is having a pretty shitty year too. And the Nationals – who were a month ago close to grabbing the NL East – have now faded and must decide if they will be sellers soon.
Snell has been dreadful on the road with a 9.64 road ERA but hopefully the Padres saved some runs for today.
$10 bet on the Padres.
MIL (-120) at CIN (110)
Pitchers: B. Woodruff (ERA: 2.09 – Road ERA: 2.03 – Avg. ML: -125) vs. L. Castillo (ERA: 4.87 – Home ERA: 4.93 – Avg. ML: -105)
Pick: Bet $10 MIL
Notes: Luis Castillo is 3-10 this season and his ERA is the highest its been in his career. To make matters worse, his WHIP the worst in his career by a substantial amount. The good news is that his last 5 starts have trended in a positive direction. But when you matchup with a staff ace like Woodruff – and you are pitching subpar on the year – that explains the losses.
And I think he gets another loss today. Milwaukee will look to increase the divide between them and Reds with a big series win this weekend. $10 bet on the Brewers.
SF (-126) at STL (117)
Pitchers: A. DeSclafani (ERA: 2.72 – Road ERA: 2.17 – Avg. ML: 102) vs. K. Kim (ERA: 3.18 – Home ERA: 3.34 – Avg. ML: 101)
Pick: Bet $10 SF
Notes: Didn’t have a line yesterday on this matchup but I like the line I have today. DeSclafani has been a huge reason for the Giants being where they are and his road ERA is even better than his overall ERA. The Giants are 28-19 on the road this year and have a better road run differential than home run differential by over 20 runs.
The Cardinals fell flat in the first half of the season and hope to rebound for a strong second half. Yesterday’s game did not give me much confidence.
$10 bet on the Giants.
LAD (-240) at COL (216)
Pitchers: W. Buehler (ERA: 2.38 – Road ERA: 2.45 – Avg. ML: -191) vs. K. Freeland (ERA: 5.55 – Home ERA: 4.69 – Avg. ML: 147)
Pick: Bet $10 COL
Notes: Well, I bet on Colorado yesterday and missed and time to chase some waterfalls. This is an even bigger lottery ticket than yesterday seeing as the Dodgers have one of their aces on the mound now. Freeland is one of the weaker pitchers in the Rockies’ rotation but like the rest, he does better at home than on the road. Colorado should win one of these this weekend. $10 bet on Colorado.
MIN (-125) at DET (108)
Pitchers: C. Barnes (ERA: 0 – Road ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 0) vs. J. Urena (ERA: 6.73 – Home ERA: 8.34 – Avg. ML: 154)
Pick: Lean MIN
TEX (204) at TOR (-226)
Pitchers: K. Allard (ERA: 3.97 – Road ERA: 3 – Avg. ML: 141) vs. H. Ryu (ERA: 3.66 – Home ERA: 4.19 – Avg. ML: -133)
Pick: Lean TOR
CLE (166) at OAK (-181)
Pitchers: C. Quantrill (ERA: 6.55 – Road ERA: 9.71 – Avg. ML: -111) vs. F. Montas (ERA: 4.54 – Home ERA: 4.67 – Avg. ML: -103)
Pick: Lean OAK
CHC () at ARI ()
Pitchers: A. Alzolay (ERA: 4.76 – Road ERA: 5.09 – Avg. ML: 111) vs. Z. Gallen (ERA: 4.32 – Home ERA: 5.4 – Avg. ML: 131)
MIA (100) at PHI (-108)
Pitchers: Z. Thompson (ERA: 2.14 – Road ERA: 2.7 – Avg. ML: 138) vs. V. Velasquez (ERA: 5.35 – Home ERA: 4.21 – Avg. ML: 108)
Pick: Lean MIA
MIN () at DET ()
Pitchers: K. Maeda (ERA: 4.51 – Road ERA: 5.21 – Avg. ML: -121) vs. W. Peralta (ERA: 2.23 – Home ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 178)
NYM (-174) at PIT (159)
Pitchers: T. Megill (ERA: 3.64 – Road ERA: 5.4 – Avg. ML: 113) vs. W. Crowe (ERA: 6.15 – Home ERA: 5.7 – Avg. ML: 155)
Pick: Lean NYM
BAL () at KC ()
Pitchers: Undecided (ERA: 0 – Road ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 0) vs. B. Singer (ERA: 4.7 – Home ERA: 4.14 – Avg. ML: 109)
HOU (-105) at CWS (-103)
Pitchers: J. Odorizzi (ERA: 4.03 – Road ERA: 2.87 – Avg. ML: -124) vs. L. Giolito (ERA: 4.21 – Home ERA: 3.52 – Avg. ML: -152)
Pick: Lean CWS
BOS () at NYY ()
Pitchers: N. Eovaldi (ERA: 3.68 – Road ERA: 4.03 – Avg. ML: -123) vs. G. Cole (ERA: 2.7 – Home ERA: 2.87 – Avg. ML: -187)
TB () at ATL ()
Pitchers: J. Fleming (ERA: 3.9 – Road ERA: 5.04 – Avg. ML: -109) vs. M. Fried (ERA: 4.86 – Home ERA: 3.87 – Avg. ML: -131)
SEA (114) at LAA (-123)
Pitchers: Y. Kikuchi (ERA: 3.44 – Road ERA: 2.57 – Avg. ML: 118) vs. A. Cobb (ERA: 4.37 – Home ERA: 2.54 – Avg. ML: -110)
Pick: Lean SEA