Degen Show Part (1/14/2021)
Your favorite Degens give you their NBA Bet Picks for 1/14/21. Listen to their NBA win totals episode for more NBA action.
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Max’s NBA Bet Picks for 1/14/21
Golden State at Denver
Spread: DEB -4.5 (Lean Golden State)
Total: 228.5 (Bet Over)
Predicted Score: Warriors 121 – Nuggets 116
Overview: Both of these teams are coming off of losses on Tuesday night and in the Warriors’ case, it looked like a huge step back after making progress over their previous games. The one thing to keep an eye out on Golden State is that there effective field goal percentage is ranked 23rd in the league. They ranked 30th last year without Curry and Klay but prior to that, they were #1 in that category dating back to 2013.
So if the Warriors want to get back to being anywhere close to what they were – even without Klay – they have a long ways to go based on shooting. Additionally, they are second in the league in possessions per game but that’s not necessarily leading to more points.
Luckily for them, they play a very lackluster Denver defense tonight. And because of that, I think the Warriors can bounce back to put up some points. Denver should also be able to score tonight so I will bet $20 on the over in this game.
As for the spread, I have Golden State winning outright but with some big, sharp money coming in on Denver right now, I have some reservations with betting the Warriors – even with the points. So I’ll just lean the Warriors here.
Miami at Philadelphia
Predicted Score: Sixers 116 – Heat 114
Overview: The Sixers snuck out a win over the Heat just two days ago. It took OT for them to do it and they could not cover the 4-point spread. Just ask Rich on that one. Philly continues to be one of the more dominant teams at home while Miami continues their mutual issue of not being very good on the road. So I do look to Philly to pull out another win today.
But I have this as a fairly close game. With no line currently posted, I can only assume it will be Philly -3 or -4. In that case, it’s a lean on Miami.
Charlotte at Toronto
Spread: TOR -8 (Lean Charlotte)
Total: 220.5 (Lean Over – 222)
Predicted Score: Raptors 113 – Hornets 109
Overview: No one really could have predicted how bad the Raptors would start this season off. But it really seems like there has been some regression this season from Pascal Siakim and Kyle Lowry. Or it could just be that Fred VanVleet has upped his game and has taken away some shots from the two prior team alphas. Either way, the chemistry does not look there.
All of the metrics point to the Raptors being a mid-tier team and not a bottom-dweller. So they should bounce back at some point. Charlotte, on the other hand, is playing a bit above where they should be. So I expect them to balance out the other way.
One thing to keep an eye out here in this game is Gordon Hayward. He is not listed on the injury report but he tweaked his hip yesterday and will be interesting to see if they Hornets opt to give him a night off – given his fragile injury history.
I like the Raptors to win here but not cover. Lots of sharps disagree with me so I will only lean the Hornets with the points.
Houston at San Antonio
Spread: SA -6.5 (Lean Rockets, I guess)
Predicted Score: Rockets 117 – Spurs 112*
Overview: This is a hard game to bet on. The public perception has to be “jump on San Antonio” because the flux of Houston’s lineup. San Antonio has won 4 of 5 but those were all road games. The Spurs are only 1-3 at home this season. Now – it could have been early season rust (since they started the season mainly at home) but it’s something to be cautious about right now.
The Rockets have gotten rid of Harden. Which is a plus in that it’s one less distraction. But it’s a minus since he played such a critical role in that offense. Now, it becomes Christian Wood, John Wall and Victor Oladipo – once he’s settled in – to try to redefine that team’s offense. If all of them are healthy, I actually don’t hate it.
But yeah, I can’t really jump on this game with all of the unknowns and the impact to the stats in my model. So for now, I’ll just lean the Rockets.
*This is all based on the Rockets with Harden. So it will be touch and go with Rockets metrics for a few games to see how this plays out.
Indiana at Portland
Spread: POR -2.5 (Lean Indiana)
Total: 230 (Lean Over – 234)
Predicted Score: Pacers 119 – Blazers 115
Overview: I’ve placed bets on both of these teams lately so I’ve paid close attention to how they are doing. Malcolm Brogdon has taken over as the leader of the Pacers – so losing Victor Oladipo is not that big of a blow. I think Caris Lavert will be a nice addition to complement Brogdon’s game.
For Portland, it has been CJ McCollum leading the way offensively so teams have had to adjust to defending the Blazers. And what happened last night? The Kings focused on McCollum and Damian Lillard dropped 40 on them. So yeah, have fun with that.
Indiana is one of the most balanced teams in the league when it comes to both offense and defense while Portland looks to outscore their opponents due to some defensive deficiencies. I do believe Indiana can outright win this one – so a moneyline is tempting. But I have no betting data yet so I can only lean the Pacers for now.