Degen Show Part (1/29/2021)
Your favorite Degens give you their NBA Bet Picks for 1/29/21 and there’s some hockey picks below too. Listen to their NBA win totals episode for more NBA action.
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Max’s NBA Bet Picks for 1/29/21
Atlanta (-4.5) at Washington (4.5)
Pick: Bet Washington
Total: 232 (Lean Under – 231)
Predicted Score: Atlanta 116 – Washington 115
Overview: The Wizards have lost 3 in a row and the Bradley Beal trade rumors are heating up. What that means for Russell Westbrook, who knows. This is a team that is 3-11 and the main reason is some dreadful defense. It was a similar story last season when their high powered offense but up big numbers and their non-defense gave up more.
So why do I like the Wizards here today? Mostly because I don’t trust Atlanta to cover. Atlanta’s defense is much worse on the road and if their shooting goes a bit cold from 3, they could find themselves in a deficit. This is a team that is still too reliant on Trae Young and is dealing with some injuries that could make them push the ball to him even more.
So yea, I am betting $20 on the Wizards. May Jebus help me…
Indiana (-3.5) at Charlotte (3.5)
Pick: Bet Indiana
Total: 219.5 (Lean Over – 222)
Predicted Score: Indiana 114 – Charlotte 108
Overview: Wednesday’s loss to the Pacers, the Hornets dropped to 3-5 at home on the year. It was their third straight home loss. It does seem like their offense struggles at home. As for the Pacers, they have won 2 in a row and are pretty damn good on the road. Their 5-2 away record is powered by some stronger road defensive metrics and consistent shooting.
Indy beat the Hornets by 10 last time out and I am apprehensive of betting on a team in the second game of these miniseries – but the Charlotte defense really struggled with the versatility of the Pacers’ offense and got lax on 3-point coverage. This should lead to another loss if they don’t adjust tonight.
I’ll bet $20 on the Pacers.
Sacramento (5.5) at Toronto (-5.5)
Pick: Bet Sacramento
Total: 229 (Lean Under – 229)
Predicted Score: Sacramento 115 – Toronto 114
Overview: The Kings have not found much success on the road but with the Raptors playing in Tampa, it’s not like they have a major homecourt advantage. Sure, it means they aren’t traveling and they are a bit more familiar with the court than the Kings will be – but Toronto’s offense scores about 6 points less at home than on the road. Their offensive efficiency numbers are down at home and their effective field goal percentage is slightly worse.
The teams with some of the better home records tend to have higher effective FG % at home than on the road. Call it familiarity or call it comfort without travel. Either way, the Raptors just don’t seem at home in Florida.
I have the Kings winning this one so getting these points is a nice cushion. Betting $20 on the Kings.
Cleveland (-1) at New York (1)
Pick: Bet Cleveland
Total: 207 (Lean Over – 209)
Predicted Score: Cleveland 107 – New York 102
Overview: Let’s continue by blindspot test. Betting on Knicks games have not boded well for me this season. New York has lost 3 in a row and I have bet and lost on two of those games. So they are due for a win, right? No. No they are not.
Other than a blowout loss to the Celtics, the Cavs have played damn good ball as of late. At 9-9 on the season, this is a team that is playing better than most of us expected them to. Their offense leaves a lot to be desired but so do the fucking Knicks. It’s no surprise the total in this game so damn low.
But I am only leaning the total in this one and instead will bet $20 on the Cavs to win and cover.
Milwaukee (-7) at New Orleans (7)
Pick: Lean New Orleans
Total: 228.5 (Lean Under – 228)
Predicted Score: Milwaukee 117 – New Orleans 111
LA Clippers (2) at Orlando (-2)
Pick: Lean Clippers
Total: 212.5 (Lean Over – 216)
Predicted Score: LA Clippers 109 – Orlando 107
Brooklyn (-8.5) at Okla City (8.5)
Pick: Lean Oklahoma City
Total: 230 (Lean Under – 227)
Predicted Score: Brooklyn 116 – Okla City 111
Philadelphia (-6.5) at Minnesota (6.5)
Pick: Lean Philadelphia
Total: 225.5 (Lean Under – 221)
Predicted Score: Philadelphia 114 – Minnesota 107
Denver (-4.5) at San Antonio (4.5)
Pick: Lean San Antonio
Total: 221.5 (Lean Over – 223)
Predicted Score: Denver 112 – San Antonio 111
Dallas (4.5) at Utah (-4.5)
Pick: Lean Dallas
Total: 220.5 (Lean Under – 219)
Predicted Score: Utah 111 – Dallas 108
Max’s Salty NHL Bets for 1/29/2021
Pretty good day for Mad Max. I was 11-2 in my NHL picks and 3-0 on bets. That put me up about $62 in my base $20 bets. On the season, that puts me at 70-43 on my picks and 20-16 on bets. Finally got into the black by about $38. Unfortunately, only one game today and I am not liking it as a bet.
Columbus Blue Jackets (-124) at Chicago Blackhawks (112)
Pick: Lean Chicago
Notes: The public and money are on Columbus here and at only -124, it seems like a value. But my metrics give a slight edge to Chicago in this game – just not enough value in the payout. Chicago is not the bad team everyone expected. Their defense is clicking and they are getting good goaltending from Kevin Lankinen. As for Columbus, I like them better as a dog. Their offense lacks firepower so laying any money on them is always a bit risky to me.