Degen Show Part (2/11/21)
Your favorite Degens give you their NBA Bet Picks for 2/11/21 and there’s some hockey picks below too. Listen to their NBA win totals episode for more NBA action.
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Max’s NBA Bet Picks for 2/11/21
I was 5-4 on my picks but 1-1 on my bets. Stayed in the black for at least one more day.
Orlando (5.5) at Golden State (-5.5)
Pick: Bet $20 Golden State
Total: 224.5 (Lean Under – 221)
Predicted Score: Golden State 114 – Orlando 107
Overview: There was a recent game against the Bulls where the Magic’s offense didn’t look like complete dogshit. But it was the Bulls, I thought. Their defense makes teams look like the Showtime Lakers. And the following game, the Magic dropped 92 against that same Bulls team. So yeah, there will be anomalies like that for Orlando but the truth is, their offense fucking blows.
The Warriors defense is markedly better than the Bulls and while their offense has lulls at time, it can also get extremely hot. If that happens tonight, this could get ugly. I have the Warriors winning this game by 7 – so I would bet this up to 6.5 if needed. $20 on the Warriors.
Miami (-2.5) at Houston (2.5)
Pick: Lean Houston
Total: 218.5 (Lean Over – 220)
Predicted Score: Houston 111 – Miami 109
Overview: Can we say the Heat are back to form after their COVID issues? No. They have beaten the Wizards and the Knicks twice. What we can say is that they are starting to resemble that cohesive unit that pushed through the bubble last season and barring any issues, and possibly with the addition of another key player via trade, they could be a thorn to Milwaukee and Philly.
For Houston, a road trip that was interrupted with a quick stop home did not end well. They are 1-4 over their last 5 and their offense has looked dreadful during that stretch. To make matters worse, their defense, which had carried them this season, has also looked awful. When you score 9 less points per game but give up 10 more points per game, it usually doesn’t equal wins.
Yet, I think this could be a game where they hang tight with a subpar offensive team and maybe pull out a last second win. I’m leaning the Rockets here.
Toronto (4.5) at Boston (-4.5)
Pick: Lean Toronto
Total: 222.5 (Lean Over – 226)
Predicted Score: Toronto 114 – Boston 112
Overview: Boston will be glad to be back home after a road trip that saw them go 2-3 and drop them to 12-11 on the season. Toronto on the other hand, has won 6 of 10 and is now creeping on Boston’s spot in the East. The Raptors have been able to capitalize on some lesser teams but also stepped up against Brooklyn. So I’m not going to count this as a win for Boston.
Boston is coming off a big loss to Utah. In that game, they hit their 3’s but as I noted, it was midrange that killed them. They went 3 for 15 with their midrange jumpers and despite getting 11 offensive rebounds, they could not keep up with Utah’s big 3rd quarter.
If Boston wants to win today, they need to avoid a big deficit. Over their last 3 games, Boston has averaged opponent’s biggest leads to get up to 16. Toronto has averaged 9 over that same stretch.
I have Toronto winning this one and it should trigger a bet. But I’ll just lean them here.
Indiana (-3) at Detroit (3)
Pick: Lean Indiana
Total: 219 (Lean Over – 223)
Predicted Score: Indiana 113 – Detroit 110
Overview: We asked what Detroit’s offense would look like without Derek Rose in it and they ended up beating Brooklyn. Granted, Brooklyn’s defense has plummeted to the bottom of the league and balloons any team’s offensive stats. The Pacers defense is middle of the pack on the season but has been better recently. It’s the Pacer’s offense that has been underwhelming lately.
Indiana’s effective field goal % is 48.7% over their last 3. That ranks 3rd worst in the league in that span and is 6% lower than their season average. If Indiana can turnaround their shooting woes, they should be able to get the win today. They don’t turn the ball over much while Detroit is one of the worst teams when it comes to turnovers. Detroit does have one of the better Fastbreak efficiencies in the league, but Indiana is 8th in Fastbreak points per game. So those turnovers could lead to some easy Pacers points.
I have Indiana winning this game by 3 and some percentage points so I’ll lean the Pacers here to cover.
Philadelphia (-5.5) at Portland (5.5)
Pick: Lean Portland
Total: 229.5 (Lean Under – 226)
Predicted Score: Philadelphia 115 – Portland 111
Overview: The Sixers would like to erase the beatdown that Portland gave them a week ago. And they can exorcise those demons with a big road win tonight. Other than that off night, the Sixers have been solid and they boast a 7-5 road record. Which, OK, does not sound impressive, until you realize the Sixers were 12-26 on the road last season. So yeah, a win today would put them at 67% of last season’s total road wins.
Philly has mostly won using their defense and they will need it tonight against one of the more efficient and dangerous offenses in the league. On the other hand, Philly can put up points. It’s not always pretty, but against a team like Portland – that ranks 3rd worst in the league in defensive efficiency – this could be a chance for them to exceed their normal road points per game.
I have Philly winning this game by 4. So it’s too close for me in either direction. Just a lean on the Blazers.
Max’s Salty NHL Bets for 2/11/21
Only 2 games on the board yesterday and I split 1-1. I thought the Rangers were a decent value play but did not put money on them as I just know how good Boston is. And they pulled out the win. I did hit on my Toronto bet which makes me 31-22 on my bets this season (up $142.50). Overall picks are 113-75 (60%).
Tampa Bay Lightning (-152) at Florida Panthers (137)
Pick: Bet Florida
Pittsburgh Penguins (-106) at New York Islanders (-104)
Pick: Bet Islanders
Calgary Flames (-143) at Vancouver Canucks (129)
Pick: Bet Calgary
Edmonton Oilers (117) at Montreal Canadiens (-132)
Pick: Lean Montreal
Detroit Red Wings (152) at Nashville Predators (-169)
Pick: Lean Detroit
Columbus Blue Jackets (100) at Chicago Blackhawks (-110)
Pick: Lean Chicago
Ottawa Senators (183) at Winnipeg Jets (-206)
Pick: Lean Winnipeg
Carolina Hurricanes (-125) at Dallas Stars (113)
Pick: Lean Dallas
San Jose Sharks (-123) at Los Angeles Kings (111)
Pick: Lean San Jose
Anaheim Ducks (191) at Vegas Golden Knights (-216)
Pick: Lean Vegas