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Degen Show Part (2/24/21)
Your favorite Degens give you their NBA Bet Picks for 2/24/21 and there’s some hockey picks below too. Listen to their NBA win totals episode for more NBA action.
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Max’s NBA Bet Picks for 2/24/21
Golden State (2) at Indiana (-2)
Pick: Bet $20 ML Warriors
Total: 228.5 (Lean Under – 227)
Predicted Score: Golden State 115 – Indiana 112
Overview: The Warriors played last night. The Pacers played a week ago. So Indiana should be the fresher team. But sometimes long layoffs don’t always payoff. Prior to their COVID break, the Pacers had been playing pretty well against subpar teams. I don’t qualify the Warriors as subpar.
Yes, they had me sweating a bit yesterday against the Knicks, but ultimately they bounced back from a bad second quarter and got the win. Tonight they won’t have the luxury of playing a bad offensive team. The Pacers aren’t offensive juggernauts, but compared to the Knicks, they are like the Warriors from a few seasons ago.
The thing I can’t stress enough of why I like this Warriors team each night is that their defense is insanely good right now. They now rank 4th in defensive efficiency and have shaved off more than 3 opponent’s points per game off their average compare to a month ago. And more than 12 points per game less than that atrocious start to the season without Draymond Green.
These two teams match up well statistically in effective field goal %, offensive rebounding and turnovers – though Indiana has a slight edge in all 3. But I still think there’s value in taking the Warriors again to outright win.
$20 moneyline on the Warriors.
Detroit (10) at New Orleans (-10)
Pick: Bet $20 Detroit
Total: 223 (Lean Over – 226)
Predicted Score: New Orleans 114 – Detroit 112
Overview: Detroit is 3-14 on the road this season. They have 9 overall wins. One of those wins came 10 days ago against the Pelicans. New Orleans is a weird team. We’ve joked for awhile that they only play 3 quarters. That kind of happened against Boston 3 days ago but the quarters they played were really damn good.
If you compared these teams without looking at any stats, you’d automatically say that New Orleans is the better team. But it’s not true. The Pelicans have more talent and Detroit’s metrics might be a bit inflated now because they don’t have Derek Rose anymore and Blake Griffin is on the trade block. But that Pelicans’ defense has been bad the past month and a half while Detroit holds their own. And while New Orleans has a more potent offense, there are those aforementioned lapses to worry about.
Which brings me to a double-digit line. As I learned yesterday, favorites can easily cover the chalk. So it’s doable that New Orleans does it against a team in it’s umpteenth rebuild the past 30 years. If they play a full four quarters, it will happen since Detroit’s offense won’t be able to keep up.
That’s a big if though.
$20 on the Pistons.
Meaningless Leans
Houston (-2.5) at Cleveland (2.5)
Pick: Lean Houston
Total: 216.5 (Lean Over – 220)
Predicted Score: Houston 114 – Cleveland 106
Boston (-3.5) at Atlanta (3.5)
Pick: Lean Atlanta
Total: 227.5 (Lean Under – 223)
Predicted Score: Atlanta 112 – Boston 111
Toronto (2.5) at Miami (-2.5)
Pick: Lean Toronto
Total: 215.5 (Lean Over – 219)
Predicted Score: Toronto 112 – Miami 107
San Antonio (1.5) at Oklahoma City (-1.5)
Pick: Lean Oklahoma City
Total: 217.5 (Lean Over – 218)
Predicted Score: Oklahoma City 110 – San Antonio 108
Notes: DeMar Derozan is out and Lamarcus Aldridge is questionable. Spurs played 10 days ago.
Minnesota (4) at Chicago (-4)
Pick: Lean Minnesota
Total: 227.5 (Lea Under – 226)
Predicted Score: Chicago 114 – Minnesota 112
Charlotte (9.5) at Phoenix (-9.5)
Pick: Lean Charlotte
Total: 225.5 (Lean Over – 223)
Predicted Score: Phoenix 112 – Charlotte 111
LA Lakers (8.5) at Utah (-8.5)
Pick: Lean Lakers
Total: 219 (Lean Under / Dumb Push – 219)
Predicted Score: Utah 111 – LA Lakers 108
Max’s Salty NHL Bets for 2/24/21
2-4 in picks yesterday and 1-1 in bets. Still, I eeked out a minor profit. On the year, I am 153-119 in picks, 41-36 in bets and up $84.52.
Minnesota Wild (163) at Colorado Avalanche (-182)
Pick: Bet Minnesota
Carolina Hurricanes (116) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-128)
Pick: Lean Carolina
Dallas Stars (117) at Florida Panthers (-130)
Pick: Lean Florida
Calgary Flames (133) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-148)
Pick: Lean Toronto
New York Rangers (110) at Philadelphia Flyers (-121)
Pick: Lean New York
Anaheim Ducks (136) at Arizona Coyotes (-151)
Pick: Lean Arizona
Los Angeles Kings (142) at St. Louis Blues (-158)
Pick: Lean Los Angeles