Degen Show Part (2/4/21)
Your favorite Degens give you their NBA Bet Picks for 2/4/21 and there’s some hockey picks below too. Listen to their NBA win totals episode for more NBA action.
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Max’s NBA Bet Picks for 2/4/21
Denver (5) at LA Lakers (-5)
Pick: Bet $20 Denver
Total: 219 (Lean Over – 222)
Predicted Score: LA Lakers 113 – Denver 109
Overview: It just seems as if the Nuggets just wrapped up a road trip and that’s because the Nuggets just recently wrapped up a road trip. They went 4-1 during that stretch and improved their road record to 7-3 on the season. After a quick home win over Utah, and a postponed home game against Detroit, the Nuggets will have a two game stint in California starting tonight against the Lakers.
Denver’s road metrics are better than their home metrics. On the season, they are the 5th best team in effective field goal % but ranked 2nd on the road in that category. Denver is also one of the better teams in offensive rebounding and they turn the ball over less than the Lakers do.
Adding Michael Porter Jr. back in to the mix has given Denver more depth and I think they match up well against the Lakers. L.A. is only 4-4 at the Staples Center this year but both their offense and defense plays better at home than on the road. So I expect the Lakers to come out strong today but miss covering the spread.
I’ll bet $20 on Denver plus the points here.
Golden State (3.5) at Dallas (-3.5)
Pick: Bet $20 Golden State
Total: 224.5 (Lean Over – 226)
Predicted Score: Golden State 117 – Dallas 109
Overview: The money was coming in hard on Dallas yesterday and they were right. Now they are in a back-to-back situation so the status of Porzingis will be in question. They welcome in a Warriors team that has generally reacted well after a loss this season.
The Warriors are only 3-5 on the road this year and a reason for that is their offensive and defensive metrics are markedly lower on the road than at home. That said, Dallas is awful at home this year. They have a 2-6 record and score 7 points less per game at home.
The Warriors will be a bit fresher than the Mavs and should be able to keep it close – or possibly win. I’ll bet $20 on Golden State with the points.
Utah (-7.5) at Atlanta (7.5)
Pick: Lean Atlanta
Total: 224 (Lean Under – 221)
Predicted Score: Utah 111 – Atlanta 110
Overview: The Hawks dropped a home game to Dallas last night and now welcome a Jazz team that is one of the best in the league. Utah is 7-3 on the road and are coming off a double-digit win over the Pistons two days ago. The Jazz are currently the only team in the league that is top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
That all said – I have this as a close game. Utah should get the road win but coughing up so many points against a potentially dangerous team like Atlanta seems a bit much to me. I’ll lean the Hawks.
Portland (9.5) at Philadelphia (-9.5)
Pick: Lean Portland
Total: 227 (Lean Over – 230)
Predicted Score: Philadelphia 118 – Portland 112
Overview: Already ravaged by injuries, it looks as if the Blazers might be without Damian Lillard tonight. If that’s the case, wave the white flag on this game and give the W to Philly. The Sixers are 10-1 at home but are coming off a game last night. So we will see if Embiid gets a night off or plays less minutes tonight after logging 34 minutes last night.
In those 34 minutes, he scored a point per minute and also added in 11 rebounds, 2 steals, 2 assists and 1 block. He seems to be thriving under Doc Rivers’ coaching style or perhaps some kind of secret elixir that has repaired his old man knees and back. If that is the case, I would like to have that elixir to heal my old man knees and back.
With Lillard, I have this as a 6 point game. Without him, it gets pretty bad. I’ll assume he plays and lean Portland here.
Houston (1) at Memphis (-1)
Pick: Lean Houston
Total: 224.5 (Lean Under – 220)
Predicted Score: Houston 112 – Memphis 108
Overview: The Rockets indeed became the Missiles last night. You can take the fat boy out of Houston but those fat boy habits might still pop up every so often. The Rockets play a Memphis team that was red hot until I bet on them the other night.
Statistically, these teams are pretty similar – with Houston the slight edge in offensive and defensive efficiency. Houston does have the advantage in effective field goal % – especially if you compare their road shooting to Memphis’ home shooting. It’s almost 5% better.
Memphis is much better at offensive rebounding and turnovers – so those stats can balance out poor shooting on many nights. I still have Houston winning this one, but after last night, I’ll pass on them. Just a lean on the Rockets.
Max’s Salty NHL Bets for 2/4/21
Not great yesterday. There were 2 games on the board and I was 0-2 on my picks and 0-1 on my bets. The Flyers couldn’t hold on against Boston. But such is life. 88-61 on my season picks and 25-20 on my bets. I’m up about $61.
Vancouver Canucks (161) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-179)
Pick: Bet Toronto
Ottawa Senators (270) at Montreal Canadiens (-307)
Pick: Lean Montreal
Nashville Predators (102) at Florida Panthers (-112)
Pick: Lean Florida
Washington Capitals (-106) at New York Rangers (-104)
Pick: Lean New York
Dallas Stars (-116) at Columbus Blue Jackets (105)
Pick: Lean Dallas
Carolina Hurricanes (-170) at Chicago Blackhawks (153)
Pick: Lean Chicago
Arizona Coyotes (153) at St. Louis Blues (-170)
Pick: Lean Arizona
Calgary Flames (-116) at Winnipeg Jets (105)
Pick: Lean Winnipeg