Degen Show (11/11/2020)
Your favorite Degens give you their NFL Week 10 DFS advice. Check back to last week’s episode to see how they did.
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Degen News Briefs
Celtics legend Tommy Heinsohn passed away yesterday at the age of 86. As a Celtics fan, Heinsohn is as much of a household name as Bird and Russell. He didn’t always get the credit he deserved, but he was a hell of a ballplayer and a fun announcer.
Heinsohn has been with the Celtics since 1956. Which is just insane to think of sticking with a team that long (even Bird went to the Pacers). Think of this: Heinsohn has been with Boston for all 17 of their titles. You’ll be missed Tommy.
COVID Impact on Sports
A few COVID-related things happened yesterday in three of the major sports:
- NFL – With COVID-19 cases increasing, the league is worried about being able to finish the 16 game season. Contingency plans are being assembled to reduce the amount of regular season games and add another playoff team to the mix.
- In separate NFL news, the league is also considering their 1st down at the 25 yard line option to reduce onside kicks. This comes as a result of 56% of 4th and 1 attempts made by teams this year.
- NBA – The 72 game season was approved by the NBA board of governors yesterday. The salary cap will be set at $109.1 million, which is the same as last season. The main discussion point has been over the revenue sharing system. Since league revenues have been impacted, the goal is to limit impact on players by spreading the losses over a few seasons (in hopes the revenue is back up in a few years).
- In other NBA news, rumors have it that Chris Paul could be dealt from OKC to the Suns. It would add a veteran presence to a team that looked pretty dangerous starting the season last year and closing it out in the bubble too.
- NHL – Will need to consider realignment for next season (along with a shortened season) due to travel restrictions between the U.S. and Canada. The realignment will not just be to deal with the travel to and from the countries, but also to reduce cross-country travel too. The target date for the season is still January 1, but it seems like a lot of things still need to be figured out.
Max’s NFL Week 10 DFS Advice
Last week I cashed in both of my DFS tournaments on the arm of Josh Allen (or the defense of Seattle) and the legs of Dalvin Cook.
In my standard league, my team easily won to improve to 7-2 (3rd place) but I have a battle this week against the 4th place team and I’ll be missing Travis Kelce. I picked up Evan Engram who has been trending up as the Giants offense starts to get better behind a more cohesive offensive line.
For DFS this week:
I am dipping back into the well this week and taking Josh Allen (BUF) and Stefon Diggs (BUF) against the Cardinals offense. Allen and Diggs put up great numbers last week against Seattle and should do so again this week. I have this game as the second highest scoring one this week (behind Seattle and L.A.).
A risk/reward stack would be Drew Lock (DEN) and Jerry Jeudy (DEN). I am not entirely sold on Lock but he provides a less expensive option and he does (by the end of the game) put up some solid numbers. He should be a good bet against the Raiders defense.
QB: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) – Tua did not shine in his first game against an aggressive Rams’ defense but he looked much better this week and gets a Chargers’ defense that can be scored on. DraftKings has him at $5,600 and FanDuel at $6,800. LAC gives up the 6th most fantasy points to QBs.
RB: Antonio Gibson (WAS) – With Kyle Allen breaking his ankle it means that game manager Alex Smith takes the helm. Gibson has already been racking up some points but he will be more critical to the Alex Smith offense. Also helps that Detroit’s defense against the run is pretty bad.
WR: Jerry Jeudy (DEN) – I kind of tipped my hand on this one earlier. Even if you don’t trust Drew Lock as your QB, I think you can solidly play Jeudy as a value wide receiver. He should get his against the Raiders.
QB: Carson Wentz (PHI) – Am I sold on the Giants’ defense? Not entirely, but it is getting better week to week. I am just less sold on Wentz. He should do “OK” but not enough to move the needle for a DFS winning lineup.
RB: Melvin Gordon (DEN) – Just like I said last week, best to avoid Gordon. For one, Phillip Lindsay is the primary back there and for two, this will be more about throwing against Las Vegas and not trying to run it down their throats.
WR: Corey Davis (TEN) – Tough matchup against the Colts and he’s coming off a pretty bad week last week. He will try to do something but I fear he will be contained.
Max’s Tuesday NCAAF Picks
I went 2-1 in my NCAAF bets yesterday. I hit on Akron/Ohio under, hit on Kent State ATS and missed on the over for Miami (OH)/Buffalo. I also leaned the under in that Kent State game and was way off. Kent State beat the over by themselves.
Eastern Michigan at Ball State
Spread: Ball State -8 (Lean Eastern Michigan)
O/U: 62.5 (Lean Over – 63)
Predicted Score: Ball State 35 – Eastern Michigan 28
Overview: Eastern Michigan held their own with Kent State last week while Ball State lost to Miami (OH). Preston Hutchinson looked pretty good in the win for EMU despite throwing two INTs to a tough Kent State defense. EMU’s defense slowed down Kent State’s offense and should be able to manage against Ball State.
The Cardinals outplayed Miami (OH) last week but still could not get the win. Part of that was an inability to stop AJ Mayer – which could be a roadmap for EMU to possibly win this one.
I do have Ball State winning by a TD but with the spread at -8, I’ll take the points and lean EMU.
Central Michigan at Northern Illinois
Spread: Central Michigan -9.5 (Lean Northern Illinois)
O/U: 59.5 (Lean under – 52)
Predicted Score: Central Michigan 27 – Northern Illinois 25
Overview: A few years back, Central Michigan was 1-11. Enter in coach Jim McElwain and they win the MAC West champs last year. The Chippewas offense has looked much better under McElwain and they are bringing back most of that offense from last season including their leading rusher and top 3 wide receivers. They do have a redshirt freshman at QB in Daniel Richardson but he looked solid in week 1.
Northern Illinois will provide the Chippewas with some problems, though. Even though they are clearly rebuilding after a 5-7 season last year, it seems like the talent they have this year are more competitive than the team they had last year. Well, through 1 game against Buffalo.
The Huskies still lost by 19 last week but I think they can hang with Central Michigan this week. I’ll don’t trust them enough to bet them but it’s a solid professional lean on them.
Toledo at Western Michigan
Spread: Western Michigan -3 (Bet Western Michigan)
O/U: 57 (Bet over – 71)
Predicted Score: Western Michigan 39 – Toledo 32
Overview: Toledo beat up on Bowling Green in week 1 by capitalizing on turnovers and running the ball effectively. QB Eli Peters tossed four touchdowns (which seems like the career total for his possible namesake, Eli Manning) and he should be able to put up more against Western Michigan.
The Broncos beat up on Akron in week 1 but that was more on Akron and less on the Western Michigan defense. I really think this game turns into a score fest with Western Michigan winning by a TD. As such, I will bet them and bet the over here.
Rich’s NFL Week 10 DFS Advice
|54||Ronald Jones II||TAM||RB|
|82||Odell Beckham Jr.||CLE||WR|
|103||Laviska Shenault Jr.||JAX||WR|
|138||Henry Ruggs III||LVR||WR|
|163||Benny Snell Jr.||PIT||RB|
|178||Gardner Minshew II||JAX||QB|
|212||Anthony McFarland Jr.||PIT||RB|
|281||Equanimeous St. Brown||GNB||WR|
|293||Lynn Bowden Jr.||MIA||RB|