Degen Show (11/14/2020)
Your favorite Degens give you their best NFL Week 10 Monday Night Football picks. Check back to see how the guys did over the weekend.
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Max’s NFL Week 10 Recap
Point 1: A Tale of Two Traded Receivers
Kyler Murray scrambled with seconds on the clock and launched a Hail Mary into the endzone. It was caught by Deandre Hopkins in one of the best plays you’ll ever see. The Cardinal got the win and now find themselves in first place in the NFC West.
Lost in this madness is that both Deandre Hopkins and Buffalo wide receiver Stefon Diggs played for different teams last season. They had 217 yards and 2 TDs combined last night. Great job Minnesota and Houston. Solid trades there.
Point 2: Rich’s Prediction Comes True
Which prediction you might be asking? Well, if you download and listen to our preseason totals episode, Rich predicted that Jameis Winston would end up as the New Orleans’ starter this season. It was a rib injury to Brees and not bad play that resulted in the switch, but still, Rich can play that audio clip and be the show’s Great Creswell.
The injury could be a huge blow to a team that was on pace to the NFC’s top seed. Brees is 41 and he’s only missed 6 games in his NFL career. Five of those were last season with his thumb ligament injury. This dude tore his ACL in high school and fought back from that. He had shoulder surgery that ended his Chargers career 14 years ago. He’s been pretty good since then. If there’s one guy who will fight to be out there soon, it’s him.
Point 3: Daniel Jones Beats a non-Washington Team
We’ve been banging the drum about the Giants’ much better play lately and I admit that I was worried they would have a letdown game against the Eagles yesterday. Well, I was wrong and congrats on the Godfather Panther for having faith and money-lining the Giants. New York looked effective against Philly the entire game. Jones played a solid game and the offensive line – despite some injuries – held up well in pass and run blocking. The Giants actually have a legit shot at winning the NFC East.
Point 4: Frauds Win, Frauds Lose
Green Bay managed to get a win over the Jaguars yesterday but it was not easy. A fumble by Davante Adams and an interception by Aaron Rodgers certainly didn’t help them. But in general, it seemed like Green Bay took Jacksonville too lightly and almost paid for it.
The other frauds in the NFL weren’t so lucky. Seattle could not beat the Rams as Russell Wilson tossed a few more interceptions yesterday. That’s 10 turnovers by Wilson in four weeks and Seattle’s third loss in four games.
I was tempted to toss Baltimore into the fraud conversation too after shitting the bed against New England. Just seems that any team that puts up any kind of fight against Harbaugh results in him forgetting how to coach.
Point 5: Max is Not the Godfather
Well, I made a moneyline play earlier in the week and it didn’t go quite as I expected. The Steelers not only won the game against Cincinnati, but they decided to win by 26 points. Big Ben started the game off slowly and looked to be impacted by missing practice all week. But by the second quarter, Pittsburgh looked unbeatable. The Steelers are now 9-0 as they also took advantage of a rookie QB by putting him under pressure and in situations to make bad decisions. So yeah, it’ll be a long time before Max does another moneyline. I’ll let two other fools on the show fight it out for their moneyline mafia title.
Point 6: Playoff Picture Coming Together in NFC
After 10 weeks, I think we can start to see a clearer picture of playoff-bound teams in the NFC. Anything can happen, sure, but right now we can see 3 NFC West teams, 2 NFC South teams and 1 rep from the NFC North and East. The NFC East champ is the only mystery right now as any team can technically win it, but more than likely it will be either the Eagles or Giants.
In the AFC, it’s still a bit messy. Miami’s win has put some pressure on the Bills in the East while a Baltimore loss and Browns win makes the NFC North very interesting. The South is a tossup between the Colts and the Titans, with Indianapolis gaining momentum. Vegas has won 3 in a row so they have a chance to get a wild card spot in the expanded playoff format. The only certainties appear to be the 9-0 Steelers and 8-1 Chiefs.
The extra point is a lesson in betting humility. Prior to this week, I was riding high in the NFL. I had not had a losing week all season and my bets were hitting at a 60% clip. Well, weeks like this are a stark reminder that the betting gods can be angered at any time
Mad Max was 0-4 in spread bets this week and 4-10 in my ATS picks. I faired a little better on my totals as I was 3-0-1 in my totals bets but still 6-7-1 in totals picks. My DFS tournaments fizzled due to faith in Denver’s running game against the Raiders and my only shining spot is my standard fantasy league where I am leading my opponent by 40 points and I have Thielen going tonight. The problem is that he has Dalvin Cook so I could still lose this one. I’m ready for week 11!
Max’s NFL Week 10 Monday Night Football Picks
Minnesota at Chicago
Spread: MIN -3.5 (Lean Vikings)
O/U: 43 (Lean over – 48)
Predicted Score: Vikings 27 – Bears 21
Overview: The Bears offense sucks. We know that. They can’t run the ball, they rarely score over 20 points per game and they rank 31st in 3rd down conversions. What better way to score some points than to play the Vikings. Minnesota’s defense can be scored on. So I expect a high score from the Bears. 21 points, be exact.
For the Vikings, the plan is simple. Give the ball to Dalvin Cook and hope his hot streak continues against a tougher Bears defense. If he can’t get things going and they need to rely on Kirk Cousins to win the game, they could be in trouble. I expect loaded boxes against Cook and then mix in some blitzes to get to Cousins. It could be a rough game for Minnesota.
But ultimately I think they can win this one and probably cover. Am I worried about prime time Kirk’s 0-9 streak on Monday Night Football? Yep. I sure am. That’s why I can only lean Minnesota here.