Daily Degen: Degen’s Best NFL Week 12 Early Picks

Degen Show (11/24/2020)

Your favorite Degens give you their NFL Week 12 early picks. Check back to see what they thought of Week 11.

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Max’s NFL Week 12 Early Picks

Arizona at New England

NFL Week 12 Early Picks

Spread: ARZ -2.5 (Pick Arizona)

Overview: By my numbers, the Cardinals should win this game by close to a touchdown. So of course I am eying up this -2.5. But let’s dissect this a little.

First off, whenever you see 2.5, that’s a bad omen and can lead to traps. Next, this is a road team, heading East, into New England at a 1:00 PM game with the following week’s game against a divisional opponent.

That’s a lot to worry about.

The Cardinals are much like the Seahawks where stellar play by their QB has helped mask a lot of deficiencies. Arizona’s defense has a lot of problems and Murray bails them out with some insane plays on offense.

For New England, you almost feel like this past was their last stand. Much like a horror movie, I refuse to believe the Pats are actually dead, but that loss to Houston certainly felt like the nail in the coffin. The Patriots defense struggled to contain Deshaun Watson and Kyler Murray will present similar problems.

So by the numbers, yeah, I am taking Arizona here. But I certainly don’t love it.

 

Carolina at Minnesota

NFL Week 12 Early Picks

Spread: MIN -4.5 (Pick Carolina)

Overview: After that home loss to Dallas, this Minnesota team should just pack their bags and call it a season. Mike Zimmer has already started pointing fingers at his young defense in order to deflect some overall bad coaching. I don’t think he will be fired this year but when you lose games like the Vikings have this year – especially with the talent on offense – you end up on the hot seat.

The primary issue is Kirk Cousins. He’s playing fairly well but his contract resulted in the Vikings shedding a lot of great defensive personnel that have put them in this situation. Adam Thielen on the Covid 19 list this week won’t help matters either.

For Carolina, Teddy Bridgewater missed the last game and they still won. Bridgewater said he was ready and he was medically cleared, but Matt Rhule opted not to mess with his future and gave him an extra week off. So he should be good to go for Sunday.

My bold predictions for moneylines are probably done for a while but if you told me next Monday that the Vikings lost to Carolina I wouldn’t blink an eye. I’ll still take the points here. If anything, the Vikings win this game by 1 or 2. So this line is a bit much.

 

Miami at NY Jets

NFL Week 12 Early Picks

Spread: MIA -7 (Pick Miami)

Overview: OK, so on yesterday’s show, I said something like “Let’s temper expectations” and “I’m still not waiving the white flag on Miami here, but maybe I won’t be too eager to bet them.” Well, I am eager to bet them this week against the Jets.

Yes, New York’s offense has done better the past few weeks with Flacco at QB and they moved the ball much better against the Chargers in the second half of the game this past week. But the Chargers’ defense is incredibly banged up and Miami’s D can actually put pressure on a QB.

Brian Flores will go back to Tua this week as his starter but isn’t nice to know if he struggles that he has a backup QB who was top in the league in QBR before being benched? The questions at QB are a bit concerning but I still think Miami shows up for this divisional game and runs the Jets out of the Meadowlands.

-7 is a lot of chalk to eat for a road favorite but against the Jets, I think this is manageable.

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