Degen Show (12/17/2020)

Your favorite Degens give you their NFL Week 15 Thursday Night Football Bets and then pick their NBA Conference winners. More NFL action was covered on yesterday’s DFS show and NBA totals on Tuesday’s show.

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Max’s NFL Week 15 Thursday Night Football Bets

LA Chargers at Las Vegas

Spread: LV -3 (Lean Raiders)

Total: 54 (Bet Under – 47)

Predicted Score: Raiders 25 – Chargers 22

Overview: The Raiders’ defense has been bad. I mean, really bad. So bad that they fired their defensive coordinator after giving up 44 points to the Colts. But I’m not sure if a change in coordinator will help. This defense wasn’t that good to begin with and has dealt with injuries all year. Jonathan Abram, Clelin Ferrell, Damon Arnette and Nicholas Morrow are all out this week.

That should mean a solid week from Justin Herbert and the Chargers’ offense. The problem is that you can’t trust the Chargers to close out games and that stinker against the Pats still lingers in our memories. The Patriots, of course, have one of the better defenses in the league and as mentioned, the Raiders defense sucks. The Chargers have some questions on offense though. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler are listed as questionable.

For the Raiders, Derek Carr will be without Henry Ruggs due to Covid 19 and will face a Chargers defense that welcomed Joey Bosa back. So while we expect these teams to put up a lot of points I am thinking that these injuries and the short week will result in some stagnant offensive drives at times.

The Raiders are 2-4 at home but LA is 1-5 on the road. So no one has the advantage there. Ultimately I think the Raiders win this one and I have them covering by mere percentage points. I’ll lean Vegas here.

Max’s NBA Conference Picks

Eastern Conference	2021 Expected Wins	2021 Expected Losses	2021 Expected Win %
Milwaukee Bucks	60	12	0.833
Brooklyn Nets	51	21	0.708
Miami Heat	51	21	0.708
Boston Celtics	50	22	0.694
Toronto Raptors	46	26	0.639
Philadelphia 76ers	44	28	0.611
Indiana Pacers	37	35	0.514
Atlanta Hawks	29	43	0.403
Washington Wizards	28	44	0.389
Chicago Bulls	23	49	0.319
Orlando Magic	22	50	0.306
New York Knicks	20	52	0.278
Charlotte Hornets	16	56	0.222
Cleveland Cavs	12	60	0.167
Detroit Pistons	11	61	0.153

 

The Bucks should once again be the top seed in the East this year and have homecourt (as long as there is no bubble) throughout the playoffs. This won’t be an easy path for them as they will get either Toronto or Boston in the second round.

I see Miami getting upset in the first round and the Nets getting by the 76ers in the second round to setup a Bucks/Nets conference finals. Ultimately, Milwaukee should make the Finals this year behind a motivated Giannis (who will be in the MVP talks once again).

Seed	Team
1	Milwaukee Bucks
8	Atlanta Hawks	Milwaukee Bucks
4	Boston Celtics	Boston Celtics
5	Toronto Raptors		Milwaukee Bucks
				Milwaukee Bucks
3	Miami Heat		Brooklyn Nets
6	Philadelphia 76ers	Philadelphia 76ers
2	Brooklyn Nets	Brooklyn Nets
7	Indiana Pacers

 

Western Conference	2021 Expected Wins	2021 Expected Losses	2021 Expected Win %
LA Lakers	57	15	0.792
LA Clippers	53	19	0.736
Denver Nuggets	51	21	0.708
Utah Jazz	48	24	0.667
Golden State Warriors	48	24	0.667
Dallas Mavs	45	27	0.625
Phoenix Suns	43	29	0.597
Portland Trailblazers	41	31	0.569
Houston Rockets	40	32	0.556
New Orleans Pelicans	37	35	0.514
OKC Thunder	34	38	0.472
San Antonio Spurs	27	45	0.375
Memphis Grizzlies	25	47	0.347
Minnesota Timberwolves	19	53	0.264
Sacramento Kings	12	60	0.167

 

Well, looks like the NBA will get its dream matchup this year. The Lakers will once again match up against the Trailblazers in the first round and then face Steph Curry and the Warriors in round 2. The path again will be through the Nuggets as the Lakers make the Finals to face Giannis and the Bucks.

Seed	Team
1	LA Lakers
8	Portland Trailblazers	LA Lakers
4	Utah Jazz	Golden State Warriors
5	Golden State Warriors		LA Lakers
				LA Lakers
3	Denver Nuggets		Denver Nuggets
6	Dallas Mavs	Denver Nuggets
2	LA Clippers	LA Clippers
7	Phoenix Suns