NFL Week 7 Bets!
Max, Panther, Rich and Arch make their NFL Week 7 Bets! We look at every single NFL ATS and every single NFL Total and make our bets.
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absolute Sports Betting Degenerates
Hey everybody Archie here and it is Saturday morning which means we’re talking the National Football League week seven max what is going on
with much I’m looking at the the games on the board today. And I see a lot of fraudulent teams playing so I can’t wait to talk about some frauds
what’s going on Panther
I don’t do this often. Maybe give just give me a few seconds here. But I got rain some phrase on the boys rich and Max. I got up even extra early today to run numbers, write notes, do all this stuff and and I’ve pale in comparison to what they bring to the table with all their stats and notes and everything. A lot of my stuff is off the top of the head. So kudos to you boys that just I mean, I don’t know how much time max puts into this show. But I put in an hour this morning and much. much time. It’s It’s exhausting. So hopefully I can keep up with Max and rich with what I bring to the table today. Because God damn if they don’t bring some some numbers and some effort and I’m just trying to elevate my game to be one of the crew. You know what I mean?
I gotcha, rich. Hopefully it shows up on the board today.
Well, you know, the funny thing is panthro he says he comes in and just lets it rip. And just we throw out the numbers and he picks the winners. And in a lot of times he does pick the winners and we spend all that time in there digging through the numbers. Emailing one another back, hey, what formula Do you think you’d work for this and then someone comes in and just picks the winner you’re like son of a bitch fight. It’s like the kid in school never studied and got A’s and you busted your ass and got a pluses.
I mean, the other thing is, he’s looking at our notebooks like he’s looking at the notes right before the exam and he just see kind of gets everything but I think it’s a testament to and I’m joking with Panther Panther actually does put in a lot of effort. He does research and he knows his his players, and he knows the stats and stuff like that. But in general, that’s what we bring to the show though, right? We try to bring all this information so people like our listeners who might not have the time, or the abilities to run numbers through Excel and so forth, they get some value out of that. So you know, I know we’re just joking about Panther here, but in general this is this what we’re trying to do. We’re trying to make people’s lives easier by putting in all this hard work and effort going through multiple sites, multiple, you know, injury reports and so forth. So to bring the most accurate information about sports betting.
For me, personally, I was just hoping to get a couple of the people on here so to elevate my game so I could make more money at the sports books. I don’t really care. I don’t care about your listeners. Go fuck yourself. There we go. got that out of the way. My master plan has been revealed let’s pull up this board and let’s get this going. We’ve got the Cleveland Browns going into the Cincinnati Bengals. Cleveland opened up minus three and a half they are three currently looks like at almost every book,
man I mean, the Browns are the proverbial cold swimming pool for their fan base. Once they start looking like a team that can compete they just remind you that the fucking Browns they’re gonna play a Bengals team though that is nowhere as good as their other divisional rivals the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens who just absolutely shellacked the Browns this season. But it’s still a team to look out for Joe burrow. I will say it already is the better quarterback than Baker Mayfield by far. And I think that’s just such an easy statement for me to make. And if he had as much talent as Baker has around him, I don’t see any way that the Bengals would be losing that game. The problem is he doesn’t have that talent around him and it’s even thinner this week. Especially with the Joe Mixon injury. That that just happened so I think Cleveland’s defense should do a better job against Cincinnati OH line did not do so well against the Steelers. The money is slightly on the bangles here, but I still think the Browns pull this one out in a close one. It’s probably it’s probably right there at the three something like that. So I’ll leave the Browns I do think they win this one.
This is this is actually kind of hard because the Bengals biggest obstacle is the Bengals. It’s between their ears. This is a team that just needs to learn how to win. They need to learn how to finish games. It is not out of the question that this team actually should be foreign to you. They’ve been in Baltimore Ravens game aside, they’ve been in every single game they play. They should have beaten the Colts. They should have beaten the Eagles. They probably should have beaten Cleveland. As as max mentioned Joe burrow is the better quarterback when it compared to Baker Mayfield. This is a team that just cannot finish games, and they need to finish this game today. Two weeks ago, I was like, okay, maybe Cleveland’s okay with Baker Mayfield. And then last week showed up. It’s like, I don’t want to do with this guy. Maybe the Pittsburgh game was a was just a buzzsaw and outlier. We can dismiss it. But I don’t know. They’re beating bad teams. They beat Washington, they beat Dallas. They beat Cincinnati. And they be you know, I’m not even sure if the Colts are even considered a good team now, but they’ve gotten absolutely hammered by Pittsburgh and Baltimore. So they get a little bit of reprieve here. The Bengals aren’t Pittsburgh or Baltimore. But man, I think this game is a little closer than maybe some people would expect. And I’m gonna lean Cleveland here because Cincinnati hasn’t learned how to win but man, I’m telling you, they learn how to win this, this team’s got to future
styles, make fights you know, we’ll see that today and UFC and I think we’ll see this in this game. And part of the style for Cincinnati has been taken off the board with Joe Mixon they already were one of the lower end rushing teams and now they’re going up against one of the top rushing defenses. Giovanni Giovanni Bernard is a is a solid kind of backup play. You might think about him and fantasy, but probably not a guy, you want to try it out there between the tackles, 20 and 25 times, Nick, he’ll be good for some flair catches for Mr. burrow. On the other side of the ball. The Cincinnati defense really can’t stop the run. I expect Kareem hunt to have a big day. And then in the Cleveland defense is one of the better defenses in the league and takeaways. Whereas Cincinnati is one of the better offenses and giving the ball up. So I think Cleveland wins this game at three. I’m betting Cleveland at three and a half. I’m leaning Cleveland I know a lot of books have it at three. So that’s where I’m at.
Yeah, not a great payout minus 120 minus three, but I’ll still take it I’m gonna bet Cleveland as well. They owe me one. I bet them last year a little over a week two on Thursday night Cleveland minus six they won by five motherfuckers they owe me one so let’s do it. I’m gonna get paid this time. Ah, the total in this one is down of it’s 50 and a half from down from 52.
I still have this going under. My total is 46. I do not have Cleveland winning by four points. It’s a 25 to 21 point game for me. So that’s a clear under for me for sure. I go.
That went for 65 points. Last time they played Joe burrow pretty much had his way with that Cleveland defense. He threw the ball 61 times. I think part of the reason Cleveland’s rush defense looks good as because you can throw the ball over that secondary they give up almost 300 yards per game on in the air. So I like the bangles to be able to throw I think Kareem hunt will have another big day instead of Bengal rush defense. So I think a lot of points scored. I’m going with the over.
I’m on the over two I haven’t combining for 54 so I’m leaning over I’m not betting and I’m okay. Okay, I’m gonna take the over here as well. I barely just barely if it was at that 52 I’d be on the under with the 50 and a half I’m gonna have to go the over. All right, next up. This is the this is the game rich was excited about Dallas, Washington. Dallas opened up minus two. They’re listed at minus one here on SPR. But if you wanted to get the traditional, you know, minus 110 juice, you’d be taking Dallas plus one. I’m
just gonna throw this out here. If the Washington football group wins this game, they’ll have the same two and five record as the Cowboys. If Dallas wins, I think they get a step closer to winning the shit fest that is the NFC East on paper. This should be a Dallas win. But I could probably say that about a lot of the games that Dallas played in this season. They just looked absolutely awful in their first game with Andy Dalton, a quarterback I don’t think it was all on him though. I think it’s gonna level off this week. I don’t expect Zico to make as many mistakes and have such an off game. The Cowboys defense I think should have an easier task against this Washington team. And you know, despite the rumors that players have already turned on Mike McCarthy. I do think Dallas rallies gets a much needed win today. There’s no fucking way I can bet them but I will lean the Cowboys here.
You notice how the rumors and these things happen and losing locker rooms like winning cures all Dallas starts winning always gonna be talking about Mike McCarthy. But man, this juggernaut of an offense just absolutely shit the bed last week. Andy Dalton couldn’t do anything and I still think even with Andy Dalton, the Cowboys offense is just going to be better than Washington. Let’s listen to this. Washington’s last five games. They gave up 19 points, or I’m sorry, they scored 19 points scored 10 points or 17 points or 20 points scored 15 points. They can’t score. And then as bad as Dallas is defenses, they give up 420 yards a game 173 on the ground so Antonio Gibson could have a big game, but I just don’t know Washington can score enough points to win this game. Even with Andy Dalton Dallas will still score in the mid to high 20s. I’m going to God dammit, I almost said the big. I’m betting Dallas.
Well, you know, the the waitstaff at the local hamburger place, they’ll be talking about Mike McCarthy for sure. The I think this is a case where the the Washington team will score but the Cowboys will score more. at minus a plus one. I’m betting the Cowboys at pick them. I’m betting the Cowboys at minus one. I’m leaning the Cowboys. So where the lines are today I am betting the Cowboys. Okay.
Yeah, I wasn’t going to bet the Cowboys until that article came out that Oh, the team’s turned on Mike McCarthy. The whole thing’s in shambles. That to me signals that Dallas is going to turn it around 100% this week, they’re going to look much better. So get my tinfoil hat out. I’m gonna do it. I’m gonna bet
Dallas I’ll take your smoking crack Come on, Mike. My people rallying around Mike McCarthy Stop it.
Yeah, yeah. But even though you know as soon as the media touches the team like that, yeah, yeah. You got to be on the opposite side. Come on.
It’s ever bill O’Brien when the media started talking about how the lockers turned on bill O’Brien and they fired his ass Yeah,
well that’s that’s six years versus six games like we’re we’re not getting Jerry’s way to loyal he’s not getting rid of the guy six games in a season especially with Dak out this being a road game is actually probably worked for the Cowboys easy to get out of Arlington. Get on the road get into a hotel and and just I think
this is a cowboy when one thing the year they went one and 15 the team they did beat was Washington and they always seem to be able to beat Washington and you know, much like horse racing. I think Andy Dalton will be better in a second start off the bench. No, I think he can’t be much worse.
All right, Max, the total one this one opened at 47 and a half it’s 44 and a half maybe 45 just depends on your book.
I do have the over I have to go Yeah, honestly so here’s the thing I my spreadsheet as Dallas winning by double digits here yeah. Oh yeah. I like it. My spreadsheet has them winning 30 to 20 like I mean it’s a 10 point 1011 point win here. So if you add those up, it does spell it over for me
Well, the traditional Dallas offense shows up then you know it should be an over if they put out a show like we did last week then who knows but yeah, this is all about Dallas their offense being able to score and their defense letting the potato skin score so yeah, I think the over is the player
Yeah, I have them winning the Cowboys 31 to 27 so that puts them way way way over that number and even if you discount Andy Dalton a little bit from and I have they still go way over that 45 so this is what I’m betting I’m betting the over I think one of the two teams might be able to score 45 themselves Oh, I don’t know I’m not sure that’s that’s
gonna happen but yeah, I’m gonna take the over as well. It’s Yeah, it’s pretty pretty handily over so it worries me a little bit. If they fuck this up, then it is time to ban Mike McCarthy from football for a
few moves to a team with no name. You should be on the chopping block.
Yeah, no, yeah, you should be banned forever. Detroit Atlanta. Next up, Atlanta open up minus three. They are everyone’s favorite money is two and a half.
Falcons got their first win last week could be easy to give credit to Raheem Morris and that post coach bump. But remember, so was a team that got their best wide receiver back when Julio Jones returned from injury. And they also had the pleasure of playing Mr. Kirk Cousins. So that’s that’s always a good chance for you to get a win. I’m not too excited about Atlanta his ability to continue to win games, but man, you know, I cannot trust Detroit. I know their offense is looking good. I know they’ve won two or three games, but I mean, they pulled the same shit last year where they think they pulled in the strings of my hope for way too long. I bet on them and then they shit the bed. So my numbers do say to take them but I’m just not quite there on the trust factor. So I will lean the Detroit Lions.
This is a game of Atlanta. They’re much like Dallas came Atlanta’s oftens outscore Atlanta’s defense because Atlanta’s defense given up 442 yards and 30 points per game. 345 of those yards are in the air, so Stafford could actually have like a Hall of Fame day throwing the ball today to Kenny gala day and the boys. But that Falcon offense is rejuvenated Detroit quarterback Desmond Trufant is out. So that makes that secondary, a little bit weaker. And then we go back to the coaching thing that we talked about a couple weeks ago. But big question here. How many wins? Does Patricia need to save his job? Like this is a must win for Matt, Patricia and Detroit for a team that is talking about you know, Atlanta, talking about possibly trading Julio Jones and basically punting the season to get graphics for next year. So this is a must win for Detroit. And I really don’t think they get it. I’m going to leave the Falcons here.
I think Detroit is going to win this game outright. When you look at their losses, they lost the Green Bay, Green Bay. He’s got one loss on the year they lost a Chicago Chicago’s got one loss on the year. They lost in New Orleans, New Orleans, I think has one loss on the year, maybe two. So they’ve only lost two really, you know, top tier teams. I don’t think Atlanta by any definition is a top tier team. I think Detroit’s kind of turned the corner they got some time off. They came back they played well. And I expect they’re going to continue to play well that Atlanta air defense as you mentioned Panther is absolutely awful. And now the Andre swift looks like the running back that they drafted so they should be pretty much in sync on the Detroit side of the offense. It’s a really bad Atlanta defense. I’m going to moneyline the Detroit Lions Oh wow.
Let’s see not gonna get too much are you see I can look it up real quick. Max. What’s the Public Enemy doing? Cuz I’m looking at this line.
Where’s the public citing Publix? 5050 5050 What
about the cash? The
sharps are slightly on Atlanta.
Yeah, is this kind of dipping around so maybe one reason plus 123 on the money line? Oh boy here we go. I’m gonna bet Detroit plus the points I don’t have them winning out right but I don’t have the Falcons winning by more than one
so I have them exactly at one yeah. Winning exactly by one I think
that’s right now and you know how to do it Matt Patricia he’ll he’ll let me down I know it but I need someone to cover that Dallas loss I’m 56 and a half is wide open is 55 now
Yeah, I got this as a slight under as I mentioned I got I got Atlanta winning 27 to 26 so i mean it’s it’s it’s slight under it’s a couple points under for me
Yeah, this is gonna be about both defenses being able to make just Can you make a point like once or twice um yeah. I I had this written down I wouldn’t be surprised at the way over but I’m are under but I haven’t leaning out slightly over.
I have it over. I think they’re gonna combine for a lot of points. I have the Detroit Lions winning 30 to 29 so and you don’t have to worry about Matt Patricia letting you down. I won’t let you down so you can money line the lines to if you want are
Chico Are you leaning the over you betting the over?
I’m just gonna lean Oh, bending over. Okay. Does it doesn’t clear my threshold.
I’m gonna lean over here as well. I like it. I think they’re just going to put up some serious points here. And yeah. Carolina, New Orleans. Next up. Saints opened up minus seven and a half and they’re minus seven in most books now.
Yeah, New Orleans got hit with the COVID-19 bug. They’re now down. Both their primary wide receivers Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders both out. That leaves Drew Brees to throw to who the fuck knows we. It’s gonna be the Alvin Kamara show. And he’s probably salivating to play against us Carolina defense. Panthers allow 4.9 yards per carry. They’ve given up nine rushing TDs it’s close to the bottom of the barrel in the league in rush defense. Teddy Bridgewater knows his opponent pretty well. It’s a divisional game. So I like that I like a divisional team that that’s getting this many points. You know, I faded the Panthers last week and I was right about that. But I’m back on their bandwagon today. I’m going to bet Carolina with those points.
Yeah, this is gonna be interesting because one of the things we got we’ve consistently talked about is Drew Brees, mentally, how is he even gonna play? Like, does he want to be there? You know, um, and now, it was always the Michael top now you lose a manual Sanders. I mean, Alvin Kamara, I’m not sure what the price is on fantasy, but you might just pay it because the dudes is going to touch the ball probably 75% of the time today. And that puts a lot of pressure on Brees, Kamara and that entire offense to get their average of 30 points per game because their defense is just bad. I mean, they’ve given up 30% I’m like four times this year. And they’re they’re just, I mean, they’re just a sieve and I don’t know how they’re gonna continue to win games like this. Carolina can score, but I don’t know if they can score enough to win, but that defense being as bad as this for the saints, I think Carolina can score enough to keep it close within a touchdown. So I’m going to leave the Panthers
I think losing Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders when he was just starting to build some rapport with Emmanuel Sanders is a is a big loss. Trey Kwan Smith is probably going to fill that role. Cook at tight end is gonna probably be more involved but you guys are right. Poor Alvin Kamara is going to run into his legs fall off. And I’m going to lean Carolina is I think they’ll keep the game close but I am a little bit worried that New Orleans with some time off will have a you know, have a plan for him.
Yeah, it’s a lien for me on Carolina two. I think Max is right. They’re gonna run the ball. New Orleans is like 50 times and you know, they’ll probably win by a touchdown, you know? So yeah, I’m just gonna lean Carolina here. Don’t have a don’t have a good feel for this one. The totally open a 51 it’s 50
I guess I got a slight over here. I have New Orleans winning this 128 to 23. So I do have this going slight over.
Yeah, Norman’s is actually I mean, they’ve scored 30 points their last three games so that I mean, their ability to score isn’t in question. Like I said their defense has been pretty bad. Carolina’s scored 30 points twice in their six games so they can put up some points. I think this is an overplay. So I’m leaving the over.
It isn’t overplay I have them going considerably over meeting my threshold. So I’m going to bet the over here. Oh, over bet I’m gonna lean the over here.
Yeah, it’s close. It’s just ever so slightly over that 50 Point Park. It’s gonna be it’s gonna be a nail biter rich? No, right. Buffalo New York Jets. Next up, the bills opened up minus 12 and a half, or minus 11. Now bet 365 has got them all the way down to 10 G’s.
That’s enough to scare you off. The Josh Allen hype has definitely cooled off the past few weeks. But I think now is the time for it to rise back up. Buffalo just has chance I feel to get an easy win against a very terrible jets team. They do just have to hope that they don’t take the Jets too lightly. They are a team devoid of talents on the field and in the head coaching position. Their team in turmoil. They seemingly are in tank mode. But the bills still just they just need to not take the foot off the pedal here. They did lose to the Titans in the Chiefs in the past few weeks. So I can’t hardly fault them for that. Two really good teams. But it also means that the bills aren’t an upper echelon, AFC eo AFC team, right if they if they if they struggle to get the Titans in the Chiefs that means that they’re good, but they’re not great. And good teams can be upset. That defense has holes in it. Thankfully for them, I don’t think the Jets have any personnel that can exploit that. I have the bills winning by 16 here I could see them beating the hell out of the Jets just to prove a point flex their muscles but it’s too rich for my blood and that line movement is scaring me so I will only lean buffalo
I think part of the reason of the line movement is that defense is really banged up. Josh Norman is listed out Tyrone Dobson the linebackers list is how Mulana was questionable can lose the cornerback is questionable. So that the Buffalo’s defense is is hurting, but it couldn’t come at a better time because let’s be honest, this is a bye week. The Jets suck. Like it just sucks so bad. You know, my college show I talked about the Jayhawks. The day hawks could probably beat the Jets. There’s so bad if you take away that Thursday night Denver game. They’re averaging nine points per game, I think scored 30 points in the last four games taking away that Denver game total Come on. Like this team cannot move the ball. They can’t score. They’ve got one of the most inept offenses I’ve ever seen for an NFL team. Um, Buffalo backs kind of mentioned it kind of starting to wonder if they’re frauds they’ve gotten whacked the last two weeks and it’s really two Super Bowl contenders. And they’ve beaten up on some some nobodies and they probably should even last that Rams game so there are questions about buffalo but they’re beating up on bad teams. The Jets get much worse than the Jets so I’m betting this game. The Jets Got you. Yeah, no, not the Jets.
You’re not going to take the Jets. I feel like you’re gonna cry at the hook the when they’ve met the start the season buffalo one by 10 and I have a funny feeling that that hook is going to play a big part in this game once again. I’m just going to lean buffalo because I’m scared of that hook completely.
Alright, I’m going to lean buffalo here to it. This 11 line just seems like too many points. Yeah, I think buffalo covers like let’s not make a mistake the projection so buffalo wins. I’ve got even worse the max This is like three touchdowns. just didn’t feel right. So just to lean for me but I wouldn’t be mad if anybody took the square sucker road favorite play divisional rival? The total is 46 Yes 46 of most every book. Yeah, as
I mentioned, it’s got this about 1516 point game buffalo winning 28 to 12 add add padding that up and that seems like an underplay to me that that comes in about 4041
Yeah, I don’t think buffalo have deep the Jets defense. It really isn’t terrible. They just they get dealt such bad hands with short fields turnovers by their offense and defense. really isn’t that bad buffalo probably get in the mid to maybe even high 20s but the Jets probably won’t get much over 10 so it’s an under play for me. I can see a rewind of the first game of the season when buffalo 127 17 that puts them at 44 I’m leaning under as well
yeah that’s an underplay for me. Or under lien I should say by the skin of my teeth I got this coming under by a 10th of a point are right about there
All right, next up we’ve got the Green Bay Packers they’re going to Houston Green Bay is now let’s call minus three and a half on the road.
Man this this this is setting up great because right after this game, we got to do the word from our sponsor, so it’s going to be a nice lead in something talking about my favorite team here. You know, this this uh, this Packers team man. I Aaron Rodgers had possibly, I won’t say his worst game ever, but maybe his second worst game ever last week, and it’s hard for me to believe that he’s going to have two terrible games in a row. And for the sake of my fantasy team, I hope that is a true statement. Tampa’s beat Tampa Bay’s defense just put so much pressure on him every single play. They sacked him four times they forced multiple interceptions. Houston’s defense has gotten one interception all year that ties in for last in the league. I know their offense has been humming. I expect to show them Watson have another big game. But I think that defense can be beaten up. So once again, I hate backing a road favorite. Especially the same road favor that burned me last week in the same situation. But I’m giving the frauds one more chance. I will bet the Packers to win this shootout and gotta hit that hook.
Unknown Speaker 28:10
I hate that hook so much.
Yeah, shootout is probably the word I hope I get this game because this is this is very watchable. Green Bay’s defense has given up 30 points or more three times Houston’s defense has given up 30 points or more four times. They give up over 800 yards of offense. It’s just going to be an absolute up and down. The punters probably don’t have to travel. Where do you show up? It’s should be just an absolute shootout. dreamies defense is also banged up, I think physically and mentally. You know, it’s bad enough that Aaron Rodgers had that bad game, but Tom Brady and crew just absolutely dissected that Green Bay defense so I expect them to focus on that area and rebound a little bit. It’s going to be hard, because deshaun Watson, you know, will for when he’s healthy is very elite. Brandon cooks has had great last couple of weeks. So I didn’t really expect this thing that don’t come down to the wire. I don’t want max I hate that hook. I hate it so much. So I can only lean the backers here.
I think there’s some lopsided stuff on this. I think green Bay’s offense has a lopsided advantage over the Houston defense. And on the other side of the ball. Green Bay’s defense has been susceptible, but Houston can’t run the ball. And because they can’t run the ball that Oh, allow the defensive coordinator to really kind of focus on trying to slow down the passing game. If you can make an NFL team one dimensional, and I know pretty much they’ve been one dimensional all year. It makes it pretty hard for them. I think they’ll find a way to keep deshaun Watson in check at least enough that they can cover the three and a half. So I’m gonna bet The frauds
yeah you know my numbers say do the same thing but the frauds I’m gonna do it I’m gonna bet the frauds you have fuck. Oh man feel I feel sick feel sick taking them
you bet the frauds and using Mike McCarthy in the same week
Yeah, Yeah, why not? Why not just fucking just put up
a rewinding like six years
Yeah, apparently so I’ve forgotten everything I’ve learned. pulling this one is 57 up from 56
so for the sake of your spreadsheet, I will say a slight under but I have because I technically have this at 56.92 so I will say a slight honor it rounds up to 57 Yeah, I have 3621 is the square I have I have greenbay running away with this one I really do. I do think some points are going to be scored so that’s a high over though that that is that’s that’s an ask I make it done but put me in as a slight under
slight under huge I could put Max’s done push in there.
Yeah, you could put matches don’t push and break your spreadsheet like spreadsheet
put him and put him in as a dumb push. Because we might go French Kiss of
Death is going over on this one. He’s got to
Oh, they said they played the combine 11 times that they played and seven of those games the defenses have given up 30 or more points. I need this to go over I got Aaron Rodgers will fuller and Brandon cooks on my fantasy team. This has to go over right
Unknown Speaker 31:33
That’s a score. Yeah.
I kind of tipped my hand a little bit. That’d be a bad poker player. And this one it’s a dumb push for me. I
don’t push. Alright, so Richard starting the week. Oh, and one totals? Um, yeah, I’ve got this going under to just barely skinning your teeth under but it does go under. So there it is. It’s not the full square sucker play for me.
We gotta keep the lights on around here. Let’s talk about my bookie.ag my bookie provides a unique, personalized and stress free gaming experience for sports bettors head over to my bookie.ag Sign up now using the promo code. Absolute dejan so you can claim a deposit match up to $1,000 if you want to back the Green Bay frauds like we are taking square soccer play like the bills or take a leap of faith with Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys. What you doing arch you can lose and my bookies the pas match will give you a mulligan on those so head over my buggy. That ag promo code absolute de Gen. And now arch we can go back to our regularly scheduled degeneracy.
That’s right. That’s right. And you know my book he’s got green bay minus the four so you can get kicked in the dick even harder. Boom. Alright, so we’re going in order the board, not chronologically, but we’ve got Seattle in Arizona up next. This is the Sunday night game
got pushed to the Sunday night game. Yeah got pushed the Sunday night game was originally supposed to be the Vegas a Tampa Bay game wouldn’t know
I’m expecting the COVID test started coming in. And they know that this is that Vegas game is gonna get pushed to Tuesday. I think they’re covering their asses. Gotcha.
All right. Well, Seattle, Arizona, so it was afternoon it is evening. Now it’s on the board. Right here. Seattle open up minus three and a half, they are minus three and a half.
Two of us on the show have called the Seattle Seahawks for odds. And the reason for that is because Seattle has lucked into quite a few of their five wins, their average margin of victory is less than seven points, meaning they’re winning a lot of close games. That’s going to catch up with you eventually. Russell Wilson’s heroics cannot be the game plan. You can’t just like write down Oh, Russell Wilson is gonna win the game for us. You can’t just do that you have to be able to make plays on defense, especially against a dynamic team, dynamic player like Kyler Murray, who much like Wilson can flip that switch, he can go into this crazy Madden mode, and just pick up a team and win a game. I see the Cardinals, just absolutely shredding the Seattle defense here. But somehow the Seahawks are going to look into another win. And the sharks are seeing it too. I’m begrudgingly going to lean the Seattle frauds
you know this is one of those games where I can actually just recite stats. Stats don’t lie, right? Seattle’s defense gives a 477 yards per game. Arizona’s gonna score. Seattle scores over 30 points per game. It’s scored over 30 for the last five games. The only one they didn’t was that game against the Vikings last week or two weeks ago. Their defense has given up 30 points only twice. So as bad as the defense isn’t given up the yardage. They’ve actually kept their opponents under 33 Other times, Seattle games have been decided by less than five points or less than the five points one time, just once last week. So they’re winning. And they’re I don’t know if they’re necessarily covering because those lines fluctuate but at three and a half. I think they cover this one so I’m going to bet the Seahawks.
If you look at the math to battalion wind totals, Arizona should have 4.3 wins. And the folks from Seattle should have 3.2 So according to that Arizona is the better team. I think Arizona might lose this game but I suspect they’re going to cover I’m going to lien Arizona. Yeah, I’m
leaning Arizona here to what’s the Pythagorean win total for coaches that just give the game away to Seattle? It’s a few times it’s below check did it
it’s probably around three
Yeah. So it’s a lien for me because I do have one of my projections does have Seattle you know just barely covering that three and a half but it’s I’m going to lean Arizona here. The total in this one Max is 55 down from 56.
Ah, I do have this going over. So I have Seattle winning this 135 to 29. So that should be a pretty good overplay for me.
Um, yeah, I didn’t have to everything I just decided I How can it possibly go under I also want to throw out real quick, Arizona there’s some defensive players want to keep in mind on Marcus Golden’s are listed out and they have four other players, including Dre Kirkpatrick This is questionable so Arizona’s defense is pretty banged up on so Seattle’s gonna store a lot of points Arizona is gonna score a lot of points this should be an overplay
I have the game at 29 to 26 you know what that adds up to Jesus Christ another dumb push
Yeah, I have it slightly going over just just barely at 55 or no excuse me at 56 it would have been an arch dumb push but at 56 I can yeah I’m gonna go I’m think it’s gonna go slightly. All right, next up we’ve got San Francisco New England that’s opened up minus three and a half at home there minus two and a half now.
40 Niners bounce back from that humiliating loss a couple weeks ago to the dolphins. They stomped the Rams and now they’re going to head back on the road to Foxborough sit on a patriots team that was just shocked at home last week against a subpar Broncos team. Can the Patriots actually lose two games in a row at home? I mean, I would like to think better of Bill and crew but it’s not looking good. Cam Newton’s gonna be facing an even better defense than he did last week. They’re also gonna face a team that can put up points. I mean, the hoody does know a thing or two about his opposing quarterback and possibly could exploit them the same way that Brian Flores did. But I mean cam cams got to have a better game. I think he should have a better game, but he’s got to have a better game for New England. Just to keep up in this one. I do think the Patriots score more than 12 points here. Not like last week. But I like the niners man, I like them to possibly win this game on the road. Not gonna moneyline it I will take those points, but I’m definitely gonna bet San Francisco.
New England lost three of their last four. And they’ve always scored 22 points in the last two games combined. This is not a team. I think we’ve kind of touched on it jokingly but maybe it was Brady and not the hoodie. They better dig deep and find something that’s going to work because I don’t think they’re gonna be able to run the ball against that night or defense they only give up 108 yards on the ground. So I look cam Newton’s gonna have to do something probably have a James White sighting and I might catch some balls on the backfield. This is San Francisco’s, like First we’ll call real road game. Because the jets and the Giants I don’t know how much I’m giving them for that. But man, they’ve gotten Dell shift schedule because all their road games have been cross country. And they go to East Coast, all of their road games so far. But they fared well. I need a travel well. And I’ll do what max wasn’t going to do. I am going to moneyline these 40 Niners I think they do win this game outright
money line and against the hoodie on the road. That’s that’s probably not a bad idea when you figure that New England can’t pass. They’re the 26th ranked passing offense and you got the fifth best passing defense. So that’s going to kind of make the things difficult for Cam Newton it not that they haven’t already been difficult. And that run defense as you met, as you mentioned, is going up against the number two run offense. I think they’re going to stymie the run offense for New England as well. On the other side of the ball though, the New England defense is pretty solid and the San Francisco offense is pretty bad. I think it’s gonna be a close game. I’m not going to Money line them but I’m gonna lean the 40 Niners
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