NHL and AL Win Totals Degeneracy

Max’s NHL Notes:

Ducks at Flames

The Flames beat the Ducks 6-0 on Thursday. That game was in Anaheim and the Flames play better on the road. At home they are only 13-11-4. Calgary got beat on Saturday 8-4 at home against the Blackhawks and that makes them 0-5 in their last 5 home games. The Ducks are 5-3-2 in their last 10 and won yesterday in Vancouver. There could be some value in Anaheim here but I think Calgary breaks their home losing streak. Leaning the Flames.

Islanders at Coyotes 

The Islanders have lost 2 in a row after Saturday’s 1-0 loss to the Golden Knights. They play their 5th road game in 6 games as they head to Arizona today. The Coyotes got a big home win over the Capitals on Saturday. That improved them to 14-11-4 at home. I still don’t know if I can trust Arizona and the Islanders are decent on the road at 15-11-2. It’s a tad trappish here but I’ll still take it. I’ll bet the Islanders.

Panthers at Sharks

Florida is in a bit of a slump. They have lost 2 in a row after Saturday’s 4-1 loss to Edmonton. That makes them 3-6-1 over their last 10 and a -9 goal differential over their last 5. San Jose has won 4 of 5 and brought their home record up to 14-14-1. I think there’s value in betting the Panthers at a plus line here and banking on them getting out of this slump soon. I’ll bet Florida.

Capitals at Golden Knights

This is the Capitals third straight road game and they are coming off a loss on Saturday night to the Coyotes. The Golden Knights have won 2 in a row after a 1-0 win over the Islanders on Saturday. The Capitals are 21-7-1 on the road and hard to imagine them losing 2 in a row on the road. This is a big trap line with the Caps as a plus line, the money on them and line getting better. I’ll lean Vegas here.

Lightning at Avalanche 

The Lightning are the best team in hockey and before the trade deadline they added more offense by adding Blake Coleman. The only team that seems to match their offense is Colorado. Tampa Bay has won 10 in a row and has the best goal differential in the league. Colorado has lost 2 in a row after that shitshow on Saturday. But they are 7-3-0 in their last 10. All good things must come to an end and Tampa will lose eventually. This is a good chance. I’ll lean Colorado