NHL and NL Win Totals Degeneracy

Max’s Notes:

NHL

Blue Jackets at Flyers

Columbus has lost 5 in a row after Sunday’s loss to the Devils. The Flyers are 18-5-4 at home and coming home after a 3 game road trip. Philly had that home blip to the Devils a few weeks back where they lost 5-0 but that’s their only home loss in their last 5 home games. These two team will play again on Thursday in a home and home. Both Claude Giroux and James van Riemsdyk have 5 game point streaks going on for Philly. I’m betting Philly here.

Maple Leafs at Penguins 

Toronto is coming off a loss on Buffalo on Sunday. Penguins have won 2 in a row after thumping the Red Wings on Sunday. The Penguins continue their home dominance with a 21-5-4 record on the season. They are 7-2-1 over their last 10. Toronto is above .500 on the road but definitely not a great road team. Sidney Crosby has played very well since returning from his injury 12 games ago. I’m betting the Penguins here.

Sabres at Senators 

Buffalo has won 4 of 5 and have a +5 goal differential over that span. They head to Ottawa where the Senators have had a couple of surprise wins this past week – beating the Stars and Coyotes at home to improve to 14-11-6 at home this year. Buffalo is a dreadful 9-14-4 on the road this season. Carter Hutton has been very good over his last 4 games but he’s been roughed up on the road on Ottawa before. I’ll lean Ottawa.

Canadiens at Red Wings

Both teams have not been very good lately. For the Red Wings, it’s actually been all season. So losing 4 in a row is no big deal. It is a bigger deal for Montreal who have also lost 4 in a row and have a -7 goal differential over their last 5. Their issues tend to be at home. They are better on the road than at home – posting a 14-11-3 road record. Their most recent road losses were in Boston and in Pittsburgh. Teams that don’t lose at home. Detroit is not one of those teams. Money is on the Red Wings here and it’s getting better. So a weird trap. It’s past my chalk threshold to bet Montreal so I’m off this game.

Devils at Blues

St. Louis continues to lose some close games. The Blues are tied as the top team by points in the West, despite their 5 game losing streak. They hope to break that streak with the Devils in town. New Jersey has been decent lately but have been making some trades that could shake up any consistency they have created. The Devils are 12-16-0 on the road this season and playing a Blues team that is 18-6-5 at home. I like the value here for NJ but I expect St. Louis to turn things around soon. I’ll lean the Devils.

Hurricanes at Predators 

Nashville has won 3 in a row and are 7-3-0 over their last 10. They play a Hurricanes team that are 14-12-2 on the road and went 2-2 on their most recent road trip. Nashville has a choice to make at goalie in this one. Pekka Rinne has struggled but is coming off a solid last start on Sunday and he’s played well against Carolina this season. Money is slightly on Nashville and line is getting better. So a little trappy. I can’t trust the Hurricanes on the road so I’ll only lean them.

Kings at Jets

The Kings have won 2 in a row and head to Winnipeg where the Jets are coming off a win on Sunday. Winnipeg ends a 6 game homestand today. They have gone 3-2 in their last 5 and are 15-14-3 at home this season. The Kings are the second worst team in the league based on total points and they are 9-21-4 on the road. They have beaten the Jets twice this season so can they make it 3? I’ll lean LA as a value play.