Degen Show (1/14/22)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 1/14/22
Las Vegas (5.5) vs. Cincinnati (-5.5)
Spread: Bet $50 Las Vegas
Total: Lean Over 48
Predicted Score: Las Vegas 22 – Cincinnati 27 (49)
Notes: Last wee was kind of a playoff game for the Raiders. A loss would have eliminated them from entering the playoffs. A win gets them in.
I mean, they had that whole tie thing as a contingency plan but the Chargers decided that nah, getting into the playoffs with a tie seems so lame. So they may as well just lose the game instead.
So here are the Raiders. In the fucking playoffs. For the first time in Derek Carr’s career.
A team that started out strong, fired their coach, went downhill and then got hot again at the end of the season. And maybe it doesn’t end here.
The Bengals are a good team. Good enough to win the AFC North but there have been moments this season where they youth and inexperience have shown through.
There is no denying that Joe Burrow is a special QB. And that’s going to only get better over time. His connection with Ja’Marr Chase is remarkable. And something I look forward to seeing for years to come.
But winning a playoff game is tough. The Bengals have not done that in 31 fucking years.
They probably get the win here. I just don’t know if they cover.
$50 bet on the Raiders.
New England (4) vs. Buffalo (-4)
Spread: Bet $50 New England
Total: Lean Over 43.5
Predicted Score: New England 26 – Buffalo 28 (54)
Notes: These teams have played twice this year. The first one was a bitter cold, ugly, low-scoring game that the Pats won. The other was a somewhat cold, less ugly, kind of higher scoring game that the Bills won.
So the Pats must be jumping for joy to find out the gametime temperature will be 4 degrees. The uglier the better for them as it plays into their strength of running the ball on every play if they had to.
For the Bills, Josh Allen has expressed concerns about keeping his extremities warm. Former NFL player Bart Scott suggested he use Viagra before the game.
Not quite sure which extremity Scott was referring to there but he’s not the first player to mention the little blue pill to help them on the field.
Who knows if Allen will take up his advice. All he needs to do is check his spam folder in his email and I’m sure he can get what he needs. Or send someone across the border to Canada to smuggle him in some stuff.
Arch is a not a huge support of Josh Allen so I don’t think he’d be willing to send him some cheap Canadian meds or not. Maybe send him some shrooms instead – though that could explain the ghosts Darnold saw on the field a few years ago.
That Patriots defense has a chance to cause Allen to see some ghosts out there too. And out of the games this weekend that could end in an upset, this is one of them.
But I will take points just in case.
$50 bet on the Patriots.
PHX (-5.5) at IND (5.5)
Pick: Bet $10 PHX ML
Total: 221.5 (Lean Over – 222)
Predicted Score: PHX 114 – IND 108
Notes: Indiana has lost 4 of 5 games and after consecutive losses to the Celtics, they get the unenviable task of hosting the Suns tonight.
Phoenix has won 4 of 5 after beating the Raptors the other night. That improved their road record to 14-4. The Suns are a top 10 shooting team on the road, 6th in scoring on the road and #1 defensive efficiency on the road.
That’s my long winded way of saying – they are good on the road.
And they should get another road win today.
$10 moneyline bet on the Suns.
ATL (4.5) at MIA (-4.5)
Pick: Bet $10 MIA ML
Total: 220.5 (Lean Over – 226)
Predicted Score: ATL 109 – MIA 117
Notes: Jimmy Butler was announced as out for this game until, well, he wasn’t. Now his injury tag says questionable – possibly indicating he does get the start today.
The Heat have won 3 in a row – all on the road – and now return home to host a Hawks team that has lost 3 in a row.
Miami is 12-4 at home this season while the Hawks have struggled on the road – posting a 9-13 record.
The Heat are 5th in the league in Effective Field Goal % and that improves while they are at home. They also are a solid defensive team – ranking 6th in defensive efficiency.
Atlanta has been experiencing some shooting woes as of late shooting 4% worse in effective FG % the past week. So perhaps their shooting warms up a bit tonight but I’m not holding my breath on that one.
My money is on the Heat in this one.
$10 moneyline bet on Miami.
HOU (5) at SAC (-5)
Pick: Bet $10 HOU ML
Total: 238.5 (Lean Under – 230)
Predicted Score: HOU 114 – SAC 116
Notes: The Rockets will aim to do something they have not done all season: win 2 consecutive games on the road.
I hit on them the other day to beat San Antonio. Dare I bet them again?
I do dare!
Sacramento is coming off a home win over the Lakers from two days ago but it was their lone win over the past 10 days. This is a team with major issues and a coaching change didn’t do much to help that.
The Rockets are pretty healthy right now and Eric Gordon has turned back the clock to help their offense. For a hodgepodge of a team, the Rockets have some decent enough talent to compete with a team like the Kings.
$10 moneyline bet on Houston.
BOS (3.5) at PHI (-3.5)
Pick: Lean BOS
Total: 212 (Lean Over – 217)
Predicted Score: BOS 108 – PHI 109
ORL (10.5) at CHA (-10.5)
Pick: Lean ORL
Total: 224 (Lean Under – 220)
Predicted Score: ORL 108 – CHA 112
TOR (-7.5) at DET (7.5)
Pick: Lean DET
Total: 215.5 (Lean Over – 223)
Predicted Score: TOR 114 – DET 109
GSW (3.5) at CHI (-3.5)
Pick: Lean CHI
Total: 221.5 (Lean Under – 219)
Predicted Score: GSW 107 – CHI 112
CLE (-2.5) at SAS (2.5)
Pick: Lean CLE
Total: 224 (Lean Under – 223)
Predicted Score: CLE 113 – SAS 110
DAL (3) at MEM (-3)
Pick: Lean DAL
Total: 217 (Lean Under – 212)
Predicted Score: DAL 105 – MEM 107
Dallas Stars (150) at Florida Panthers (-185)
Pick: Bet $10 Florida
Notes: The Stars have been playing some pretty good hockey lately. They even beat Florida 6-5 a little over a week ago. But most of that solid play has been at home.
On the road, this team is not as good. And they head to one of the toughest places to play.
Florida is 19-3 at home and playing some pretty good hockey themselves. Other than that loss to the Stars, they have been winning games.
They should win another today.
$10 bet on the Panthers.
Anaheim Ducks (130) at Minnesota Wild (-160)
Pick: Bet $10 Anaheim
Notes: Minnesota used to be automatic at home. They are still extremely good but this season, teams have found a way to steal a win here or there.
Can the Ducks be a team that does it? Not sure. I have the Wild winning but damn is it close.
And with the plus line I am getting on Anaheim here I think its worth a shot.
The Ducks have been playing some uneven hockey post Covid break but looking at their advanced metrics, there could be some improvement coming.
Their PDO is below average and their expected goals is 14 more than their actual goals. So perhaps their offense kicks in today.
$10 bet on the Ducks.
Arizona Coyotes (370) at Colorado Avalanche (-500)
Pick: Lean Colorado