Degen Show (1/15/22)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 1/15/22
Philadelphia (8.5) vs. Tampa Bay (-8.5)
Spread: Bet Philadelphia
Total: Lean Over 46
Predicted Score: Philadelphia 26 – Tampa Bay 30 (56)
Notes: I’ve been talking about this one a lot lately – mostly because I do feel there is a chance at an upset. Saying those words again, I do realize the absurdity of discounting Tom Brady.
So I will need to choose my next few words very carefully.
Almost all season, the Bucs have been at the top of my Degen rank. And for many weeks, it wasn’t even close. But then injuries started happening, Antonio Brown left town and as I ran the numbers last week, they dropped from my #1 spot.
This is not to say I don’t think they are a very good team. It’s just that they aren’t as invincible as I thought.
Now enter the Eagles. A team that has been in and out of my Degen top 10 all season. They started the season strong, went downhill a bit but finished strong against divisional opponents and got into the playoffs.
The caliber if the NFC East is certainly not up to the standards of Tampa Bay. But still, you have to like what you see each week from Jalen Hurts and this offense.
The Eagles are another run-heavy team that could cause problems in the playoffs. Tampa has been elite at stopping the run but that’s been less elite as of late.
The last time these teams played was a Thursday night game and Philly gave Tampa a run for their money.
I see more of the same on Sunday.
$50 bet on the Eagles.
San Francisco (3) vs. Dallas (-3)
Spread: Bet Dallas
Total: Lean Over 50.5
Predicted Score: San Francisco 25 – Dallas 31 (56)
Notes: Well, I’ve been touting the Niners the past week and even laid some extra futures bets on them. Now its time for me to hedge my bet!
San Francisco is one of the hotter teams entering the playoffs. Their 17 point comeback from the Rams last week showed that Shanahan actually knows how to adjust his play calling to get his team back into a game.
The big question about San Francisco is the reliability of Jimmy G. You have to admit, when he’s on, you see the QB that Bill wanted to replace Tom. But when he loses focus, he’s a guy that you understand why the Niners drafted Trey Lance this past year.
For Dallas, it’s simple: health. When this team is healthy and firing on all cylinders, it’s one of the most dynamic offenses in the league.
The defense still leaves something left to be desired but it’s markedly better than the historically bad defense we saw last season.
As much as I have been talking up San Francisco this past week, it could come to an end in Dallas. If they get past them, boy howdy, look out.
$50 bet on the Cowboys.
Pittsburgh (12) vs. Kansas City (-12)
Spread: Bet Pittsburgh
Total: Lean Over 45.5
Predicted Score: Pittsburgh 20 – Kansas City 29 (49)
Notes: I made a commitment to myself to bet all of the games this weekend. But this was one that I really wanted to avoid.
How the fuck can I put money on the goddamn Steelers?
Seriously, this is a team that really does not belong here. Look at the Ravens collapse and a lack of social awareness by Brandon Staley as the reason this team is in the playoffs.
It’s sure as hell isn’t their QB play. Big Ben is limping into his retirement. Then again, Peyton Manning did the same and won a goddamn Super Bowl.
It’s not their defense either. They rank 24th in yards allowed per game and 20th in point allowed per game.
Running game? They rank 29th.
So this is a fucking slaughter, right?
Maybe. I just still am not quite there with the Chiefs. I mean, yeah, I have them winning. By almost double digits.
But 12 is just too much for me here.
$50 bet on the Steelers.
POR (7) at WAS (-7)
Pick: Bet $10 WAS ML
Total: 218 (Lean Over – 235)
Predicted Score: POR 112 – WAS 123
Notes: How did Portland fair in their last game with not having Lillard and McCollum? They lost 140-108 to the Nuggets.
So now they continue their road trip in Washington today to take on a Wizards team that has won 3 in a row.
Now, tempering expectations here, they beat Orlando twice and the Thunder too. Still, when this team is healthy and their offense is clicking, they are a pretty good team.
Kyle Kuzma is having a damn fine season in Washington and he’s the type of player the Lakers sure could use right now. They will need him to shine tonight as Bradley Beal is still out on Covid protocols.
There is not much value in betting the moneyline in this one. I should just bet them covering the spread but that would go to the shit, I’m sure.
So yeah, $10 moneyline bet on the Wizards.
NYK (3) at ATL (-3)
Pick: Bet $10 NYK ML
Total: 214 (Lean Under – 207)
Predicted Score: NYK 105 – ATL 102
Notes: These two teams just pulled off a trade. Maybe, the Panther’s point the other day, it can clear up a logjam of minutes for the Hawks. Or maybe it takes a hit to their depth.
That depth has not worked out for them this season as they sit at just 17-24 on the season and 8-10 at home. That’s a far cry from the team that made a playoff run last season and became the bane of Knicks’ fans existence as Trae Young murdered them every night.
They won’t have to worry about playing against Reddish tonight as both he and Kemba Walker will miss the game for New York. But as we saw, the Knicks offense can continue on without Walker in the lineup.
New York’s stats on the road are worse than their stats at home yet their road record is on par with their home record. So they have found ways to somehow win on the road and I think they do that again today.
$10 moneyline bet on the Knicks.
CLE (-5) at OKC (5)
Pick: $10 Bet CLE ML
Total: 209.5 (Lean Under – 206)
Predicted Score: CLE 105 – OKC 101
Notes: I normally veer towards betting OKC on the moneyline but I also like betting Cleveland. The problem with betting Cleveland now is that you rarely get them as a dog anymore.
It’s a testament to how they have turned things around this season and perhaps can make a deep playoff run if they are active at the trade deadline to get some more veteran pieces in there.
They already acquired Rondo as a leadership presence to replace losing Rubio to a season-ending injury. It will be interesting to see if they go all-in and try to get someone like Ben Simmons or maybe one of the bigger names from the Kings.
Either way, this is a team that looks to be playoff bound. They have won 4 of their last 5 and are 14-9 on the road. This is their 6th straight road game so its something to be a little concerned about.
But only a little concerned.
$10 moneyline bet on the Cavs.
CHI (5) at BOS (-5)
Pick: Lean BOS
Total: 219.5 (Lean Under – 216)
Predicted Score: CHI 105 – BOS 111
TOR (7.5) at MIL (-7.5)
Pick: Lean TOR
Total: 222 (Lean Under – 220)
Predicted Score: TOR 109 – MIL 111
NOP (7) at BKN (-7)
Pick: Lean NOP
Total: 228.5 (Lean Over – 229)
Predicted Score: NOP 114 – BKN 115
PHI (2) at MIA (-2)
Pick: Lean PHI
Total: 207.5 (Lean Over – 225)
Predicted Score: PHI 114 – MIA 111
LAC (2.5) at SAS (-2.5)
Pick: Lean LAC
Total: 218 (Lean Over – 222)
Predicted Score: LAC 110 – SAS 112
LAL (3.5) at DEN (-3.5)
Pick: Lean DEN
Total: 224.5 (Lean Over – 232)
Predicted Score: LAL 114 – DEN 118
ORL (10.5) at DAL (-10.5)
Pick: Lean ORL
Total: 208 (Lean Under – 205)
Predicted Score: ORL 98 – DAL 107
Nashville Predators (135) at Boston Bruins (-155)
Pick: Bet $10 Boston
Notes: The Predators were playing some very good hockey before an unexpected gaffe against the Sabres cooled them off. Now they head to Boston to take on a Bruins team that has won 4 games in a row and looks to be gearing up for a second half run.
Boston sits at 4th in the Atlantic right now and has some ground to gain. If they continue playing like this, it’s possible they can leapfrog the Maple Leafs and maybe even get close to Tampa Bay or Florida.
Nashville has a slight edge over Colorado and St. Louis as the division leader in the Central. They are having a hell of a season and I can understand someone jumping on them in this game with this plus line.
I just have Boston winning this matchup enough times to trigger a bet on the Bruins.
So a $10 bet on Boston.
Washington Capitals (-135) at New York Islanders (115)
Pick: Bet $10 Washington
Notes: I lost on fading the Islanders the other day and hoping it doesn’t happen again. At least I’m not pinning my hopes on the fucking Devils.
Instead I am pinning my hopes on a Capitals team that has lost 4 games in a row including a loss to those fucking Devils.
So, I mean, they are due, right?
The Islanders have now won 4 of 5 games dating back to the pre-Covid break. They have only played 3 games since the break and that Devils win was their only game in almost 2 weeks.
So it’s hard to assess how they are doing right now. So maybe they are on the verge of turning things around. Or maybe they continue their disappointing season.
I’ll bet on the latter. Because maybe they can lose them all.
$10 bet on Washington.
Buffalo Sabres (155) at Detroit Red Wings (-180)
Pick: Bet $10 Buffalo
Notes: What kind of maniac bets on a Sabres / Red Wings game? Well, they don’t call me Mad just because I yell a lot.
Actually, they do, but I’m also sometimes mad in the head.
Buffalo looks to win 2 in a row for the first time in a month and for the 4th time this season. They get a Red Wings team that has lost 4 in a row.
Detroit has been a pretty good team at home and that even dates back to their surprising play at home last season. But there is no way I can accept them as this big of a favorite.
Even over a shitty team like Buffalo.
So yeah, I’ll be the idiot throwing money on a terrible game.
$10 bet on the Sabres.
Vancouver Canucks (180) at Carolina Hurricanes (-210)
Pick: Lean Carolina
Columbus Blue Jackets (235) at Florida Panthers (-280)
Pick: Lean Florida
New York Rangers (-150) at Philadelphia Flyers (130)
Pick: Lean New York
Toronto Maple Leafs (-155) at St. Louis Blues (135)
Pick: Lean Toronto
Dallas Stars (170) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-200)
Pick: Lean Tampa Bay
Anaheim Ducks (110) at Chicago Blackhawks (-130)
Pick: Lean Anaheim
Colorado Avalanche (-360) at Arizona Coyotes (280)
Pick: Lean Colorado
Los Angeles Kings (-125) at Seattle Kraken (105)
Pick: Lean Los Angeles
Ottawa Senators (190) at Edmonton Oilers (-235)
Pick: Lean Edmonton
Pittsburgh Penguins (-160) at San Jose Sharks (146)
Pick: Lean Pittsburgh