Degen Show (1/17/22)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 1/17/22
Max’s Playoff Touchdown
Point 1: A Whistle Away
The Raiders might have been a whistle away from winning their playoff game against the Bengals. A whistle seemed to have been blown during a play but the play continued and the Bengals scored a TD.
It could have been a key TD as the Bengals only ended up winning by a TD and the Raiders came close to tying it up with a last minute drive.
But it seemed like the Raiders used up all of their magic last week in their matchup against the Chargers. It was a hell of an effort and their interim head coach is deserving of a shot at a full time job next year.
For the Bengals, it was their first playoff win in 31 years. After the game, Cincinnati head coach Zac Taylor stopped by a local bar and dropped off a game ball.
That’s one way to get some extra job security. Win a playoff game, endear yourself with fans. This guy isn’t leaving town any time soon.
As for the Joe Burrow Bengals, it could be only the beginning of their playoff wins over the next decade.
Point 2: Maybe he did take Viagra
Because Josh Allen looked damn good out there as the Bills shredded the Patriots. Seven drives and seven touchdowns.
Not too bad against one of the top defenses in the league.
For the Patriots, it was a nice season to build off and it does look like they have their future QB in Mac Jones. Yet you still need to feel disappointed in his lackluster playoff debut.
For the Bills, this win was a big morale booster and representative of what this team can look like when Josh Allen is on top of his game.
Point 3: I hate the fucking Eagles, man
Well, any concerns about the ability for the Bucs to score might have been quieted. Without half of their receiving corps, missing two running backs, and even losing a starting right tackle during the game didn’t matter.
The Brady Bunch went on to score 31 in an absolute blowout over Philly. Sure, the score only says two touchdowns, but this thing was an absolute laugher going into the 4th.
Jalen Hurts had 2 INTs and Philly didn’t have a chance to really establish the run as they found themselves in an early deficit.
Talking about depth, the Bucs have lost so many players yet found big plays from backups like Keshawn Vaughn, Gio Bernard and Scotty Miller. As I said, Brady is even deadlier than a KOD.
Point 4: The Niners are Scary
They run, they play defense and they have a ton of different weapons that allows them to do crazy shit out there.
As long as Jimmy G. plays a solid enough game, this team is tough to beat.
San Francisco seemed to have that game in hand from early on. The fact that it was so close and came down to a last minute drive is kind of indicative of the guys in zebra shirts throwing flags left and right.
The last few minutes of this game felt like it went on for ages with the number of calls. Many of them were against Dallas – a team that showed a lack of discipline down the stretch.
And then they went for a QB draw play with 15 seconds left? A designed run play in the middle of the field.
I get that people are upset the referee bumped through Dak at the end of the game but they should be more upset with Dallas’ play calling. Mike McCarthy being way too cute.
Yeah, I get it, the Niners started protecting the line there. But last I checked Dak could throw the ball pretty fucking far and you have some receivers who can run pretty fast and are tall.
Meaning: throw the fucking Hail Mary, jackass.
Point 5: So Big Ben is Gone Now
That’s something. The game really wasn’t much to watch.
Here is a summary: boring in the first, the Steelers score a TD and KC gets pissed.
Still, the Chiefs – Mahomes in particular – cannot afford to play that sloppily against a team like the Titans. Thankfully for them, they get the Bills instead next week.
They can afford to make some mistakes against Buffalo – but not nearly as many as they did against the Steelers yesterday.
Point 6: My Playoff Grade So Far Is..
I loved how things kicked off with the Bengals and Raiders but that Pats massacre was a snoozefest. The Niners and Cowboys gave us an interesting one but a lot of yellow laundry was left on the field there.
The first quarter of the Steelers and Chiefs was not good football but a close matchup and a Pittsburgh first score meant I could get a live line of Chiefs -4.5.
Though they would have covered the -12 anyway.
Overall, some fun games but hoping the next round is even better.
Extra Point: Which Brings Me To
The next round looks like:
Niners heading to Lambeau to take on the Packers. The Bucs hosting the winner of tonight’s game. The Bills traveling to KC to take on the Chiefs. And the Bengals heading to Tennessee to take on the Titans.
Hard not to be excited about each and every one of these games.
But we will have all week to talk about these games ad nauseam.
So that is Max’s playoff, round 1 touchdown.
Arizona (3.5) vs. LA Rams (-3.5)
Spread: Bet Arizona
Total: Lean Over 49.5
Predicted Score: Arizona 27 – LA Rams 26 (53)
Notes: Divisional games are weird. Maybe not for the Patriots and Bills in the playoffs. But in general, weird.
So pardon me for not jumping for joy for drawing the Cardinals in the first round. I guess it could be worse and we’d be facing the Niners. But still. Not fun.
The Rams and Cardinals split their two games this season. The Cardinals smoked the Rams in LA but then lost later in the season in Arizona.
Arizona started the season off as the hottest team – winning their first 7 games. From that Rams loss to the end of the year, they have been 1-4 with their lone win a road win over the Cowboys.
It should be noted that this team is tremendous on the road. They went 8-1 with that 1 loss a fucking weird fluke in Detroit.
Arizona’s offense was dynamic in the first half of the year but injuries to Kyler Murray and Deandre Hopkins put this team out of rhythm for a bit. Hopkins still remains out so that could be a problem.
The Rams’ secondary is beat up – brining back retired Eric Weddle to fill in for Jordan Fuller at safety. Weddle will be the signal caller on the field and expected to be in game shape after not playing for almost 2 years.
In fact, when Rams’ d-coordinator Raheem Morris called Weddle up his first question was “Are you fat?”
The Cardinals might get a boost to their defense as JJ Watt returns from his injury. It should be said that this team lost some edge when Watt went down with an injury – so perhaps him being back will at least give them some bravado out there.
Maybe this is an emotional hedging thing or maybe I am worried about Stafford on this big stage. But I think the Cardinals win this one. I’ll take the points though.
Because, you know, divisional games are weird.
$50 bet on Arizona.
PHI (-4.5) at WAS (4.5)
Pick: Bet $10 PHI ML
Total: 213.5 (Lean Over – 222)
Predicted Score: PHI 114 – WAS 108
MIL (-5) at ATL (5)
Pick: Bet $10 MIL ML
Total: 229 (Lean Under – 220)
Predicted Score: MIL 113 – ATL 107
TOR (2.5) at MIA (-2.5)
Pick: Bet $10 TOR ML
Total: 211 (Lean Over – 216)
Predicted Score: TOR 108 – MIA 108
PHX (-5) at SAS (5)
Pick: Bet $10 PHX ML
Total: 224.5 (Lean Under – 220)
Predicted Score: PHX 114 – SAS 106
NOP (6.5) at BOS (-6.5)
Pick: Lean BOS
Total: 216.5 (Lean Under – 210)
Predicted Score: NOP 102 – BOS 108
CHA (2) at NYK (-2)
Pick: Lean NYK
Total: 217.5 (Lean Under – 214)
Predicted Score: CHA 106 – NYK 108
BKN (3) at CLE (-3)
Pick: Lean BKN
Total: 220.5 (Lean Over – 225)
Predicted Score: BKN 114 – CLE 111
CHI (6.5) at MEM (-6.5)
Pick: Lean MEM
Total: 223 (Lean Under – 220)
Predicted Score: CHI 107 – MEM 113
IND (2) at LAC (-2)
Pick: Lean IND
Total: 209 (Lean Under – 206)
Predicted Score: IND 103 – LAC 103
POR (-1.5) at ORL (1.5)
Pick: Lean ORL
Total: 215.5 (Lean Over – 221)
Predicted Score: POR 110 – ORL 111
OKC (11.5) at DAL (-11.5)
Pick: Lean OKC
Total: 207.5 (Lean Over – 210)
Predicted Score: OKC 101 – DAL 109
UTA (-5.5) at LAL (5.5)
Pick: Lean LAL
Total: 232.5 (Lean Over – 236)
Predicted Score: UTA 118 – LAL 118
Montreal Canadiens (-110) at Arizona Coyotes (-110)
Pick: Bet $10 Montreal
Notes: Two bad teams with an even match-up. Shit, even my metrics say this is a coin flip. So I’ll fade the public as my tie-breaker.
Montreal has lost 5 games in a row but they have also had to deal with two multi-week layoffs in between those games.
Arizona has lost 3 of 5 games but got an impressive win over the Maple Leafs a few days back.
So which team has the public all over them and the money fading them? It’s Arizona.
So I’ll jump on Montreal here.
$10 bet on the Canadiens.
Detroit Red Wings (-130) at Buffalo Sabres (115)
Pick: Lean Detroit
Minnesota Wild (185) at Colorado Avalanche (-215)
Pick: Lean Colorado
Los Angeles Kings (-115) at San Jose Sharks (-105)
Pick: Lean Los Angeles
Chicago Blackhawks (-110) at Seattle Kraken (-110)
Pick: Lean Seattle
Philadelphia Flyers (150) at New York Islanders (-175)
Pick: Lean New York
Nashville Predators (110) at St. Louis Blues (-130)
Pick: Lean St. Louis
Pittsburgh Penguins (-104) at Vegas Golden Knights (-115)
Pick: Lean Pittsburgh