Degen Show (1/29/22)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 1/29/22
Cincinnati (7) vs. Kansas City (-7)
Spread: Bet $50 Cincinnati
Total: Lean Over 54.5
Predicted Score: Cincinnati 26 – Kansas City 29 (55)
Notes: Joe Burrow had a great rookie season but was cut short with an injury. This year, he started off strong. But the legend of Joe Burrow started about a month ago.
It was a game against the Baltimore Ravens and Burrow threw for 525 yards and 4 TDs. The following week, he led the Bengals to a comeback victory over the Chiefs.
He was mortal in that one: 446 yards and 4 TDs.
And then something weird happened the week after. They lost to the fucking Browns. And it wasn’t the first time this team laid an egg this season. So that concern has to be ever present with Cincinnati.
This is a young team with a bright future. What they have done in the playoffs so far has been special. But they have flaws. And their biggest is their O-Line.
Burrow got sacked 9 times last week. On average, Burrow is sacked 3.5 times per game this season – ranking worst in the league.
The Chiefs rank 29th in sacks per game this season. But it doesn’t mean he will have an easy day. That aforementioned comeback win didn’t come without a price.
KC got to Burrow 4 times in that one while the Bengals got to Mahomes for 0 sacks.
This game will be in KC – which will make things even more difficult for the Bengals. The Chiefs offense has not looked like it has in years past but it’s been much better the past 7 games.
Tyreek Hill looked like his unstoppable self last week and Travis Kelce reminded us that he’s still the top tight end in this league.
This will be a fun game but KC will win and go back to the Super Bowl. Will they cover? I’ve doubted them before and it has not turned out well for me. But I am going to doubt them again and hope for the best.
The Chiefs win by 3 points is my prediction. So a $50 bet on Wincinnati.
San Francisco (3.5) vs. LA Rams (-3.5)
Spread: Bet $50 San Francisco
Total: Lean Over 46
Predicted Score: San Francisco 25 – LA Rams 27 (52)
Notes: There is this thought that beating a team 3 times in the same season is tough. In general, its not easy. But you might be surprised to know that it happens more often than not.
Teams have gone 14-8 when facing a team for 3rd time in a season since 1970. Since 1994, that record is 10-4.
So yeah, let’s stop that narrative now people. The Rams are in real fucking jeopardy here.
Let’s remember coughing up that 17-0 lead to the Niners in Week 18. It was a blessing and a curse, really. It allowed San Francisco into the playoffs and they beat the Packers.
But now the Rams have to see if they can beat this team for the first time since 2018. That’s 6 consecutive losses.
The game will more than likely come down to which QB makes the least mistakes. I know, that sounds so simple. Especially because the Rams also proved last week that all of their players can give up some key turnovers.
But really, if Stafford does not turn the ball over, the Rams have a good chance of winning. Conversely, if Jimmy G. plays a safe game – the Niners could be making their second Super Bowl appearance with him as a QB.
Divisional games are weird. I think San Francisco is a nightmare matchup for the Rams. And as such, I am going to bet them here.
$50 bet on San Francisco.
SAC (10.5) at PHI (-10.5)
Pick: Bet $25 PHI ML
Total: 220.5 (Lean Over – 223)
Predicted Score: SAC 105 – PHI 118
Notes: Joel Embiid had 50-1 odds to win the MVP. He’s now leading the pack.
Philly has won 4 of their last 5 games and find themselves right in the thick of a competitive top 6 in the Eastern Conference.
Sacramento, on the other hand, has lost 5 games in a row and are bottom dwellers once again in the West. After an unsuccessful bid to try and trade for Ben Simmons, the Kings will eye up other trade partners over the next few weeks.
The Kings managed to remain competitive in some of their losses. But in others, they were absolutely destroyed.
Philly has the ability to do the latter. But I will play it safe here.
$25 moneyline bet on the Sixers.
BKN (6) at GSW (-6)
Pick: Bet $10 GSW ML
Total: 231.5 (Lean Under – 224)
Predicted Score: BKN 109 – GSW 115
Notes: The Nets will have Kyrie Irving back in their lineup today but it’s hard to ignore how his lack of consistent presence has impacted this team.
Rumors have it that James Harden is really disgruntled about the whole thing. Publicly, he’s been joking about giving Kyrie the vaccine himself to get him out there.
Privately, it could be he’s been chatting with Daryl Morey about a reunion in Philly.
Either way, these are all distractions for the Nets. And without KD, this team oscillates from a Big 2 to a Big 1 on any given night.
The Warriors now have 2 starters in the All Star game and also some dude named Klay Thompson. Who, you know, is pretty good.
The Warriors have won 4 games in a row and improved their home record to 23-4. Hard to imagine they lose this one.
$10 moneyline bet on the Warriors.
BOS (-5.5) at NOP (5.5)
Pick: Lean NOP
Total: 213.5 (Lean Over – 214)
Predicted Score: BOS 109 – NOP 105
IND (9.5) at DAL (-9.5)
Pick: Lean IND
Total: 216 (Lean Over – 220)
Predicted Score: IND 108 – DAL 112
WAS (5.5) at MEM (-5.5)
Pick: Lean WAS
Total: 227.5 (Lean Under – 220)
Predicted Score: WAS 110 – MEM 110
TOR (5.5) at MIA (-5.5)
Pick: Lean TOR
Total: 207.5 (Lean Over – 212)
Predicted Score: TOR 104 – MIA 108
Sports Bet Picks for 1/29/22
Anaheim Ducks (-130) at Ottawa Senators (110)
Pick: Bet $10 Anaheim
Notes: The Ducks edged out a win over the Canadiens the other night. And you know I was sweating in that one. I’ll probably be sweating on this one too.
Anaheim is on its 4th straight road game as they head to Ottawa today. The Ducks are a .500 team on the road this season but I think that improves today.
The Senators have been playing some better hockey as of late. They even kept it amazingly close to the Hurricanes. Maybe they keep it close today.
But the percentages still say to bet the Ducks.
$10 bet on Anaheim.
Vegas Golden Knights (134) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-162)
Pick: Bet $10 Vegas
Notes: Vegas is having a rough go lately. The scheduling gods in the NHL love to limit travel so a Washington, Carolina, Florida and Tampa road trip is a typical one.
It’s also fucking brutal.
The Golden Knights managed to beat the Capitals to kick things off. But have not faired well after that.
Heading into Tampa where the Lightning are 15-4-3 this season, the outlook does look a bit bleak.
Still, I think numbers favor them in this one. This is still a pretty fucking good team that leads the Pacific Division. Getting a plus line like this is too tempting for me.
$10 bet on the Golden Knights.
Los Angeles Kings (-165) at Philadelphia Flyers (145)
Pick: Lean Los Angeles
Seattle Kraken (150) at New York Islanders (-175)
Pick: Lean Seattle
Winnipeg Jets (150) at St. Louis Blues (-175)
Pick: Lean St. Louis
San Jose Sharks (235) at Florida Panthers (-300)
Pick: Lean Florida
New Jersey Devils (240) at Carolina Hurricanes (-310)
Pick: Lean Carolina
Edmonton Oilers (-235) at Montreal Canadiens (195)
Pick: Lean Edmonton
Toronto Maple Leafs (-220) at Detroit Red Wings (180)
Pick: Lean Toronto
Buffalo Sabres (-125) at Arizona Coyotes (105)
Pick: Lean Buffalo
Vancouver Canucks (165) at Calgary Flames (-190)
Pick: Lean Calgary