Degen Show (10/11/21)

Your favorite Degens give you their Sports Bet Picks for 10/11/21. Listen to the Degen’s MLB futures episode or their mulligan after the All Star break.

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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 10/11/21

Max’s Week 5 Touchdown

Sports Bet Picks for 10/11/21

Point 1: Doink 2: The Revenge

This is the horror movie season and most horror movies have sequels. Doink 2 ups the doinkness as it featured multiple missed field goals and the loudest doink of the franchise. Mason Crosby eventually kicked the game winning field goal but after he missed 3 in a row and also missed an extra point, it really seemed like the Packers and Bengals were doomed to be tied.

 

Point 2: Houston Might not Have a Problem

Davis Mills is a rookie QB. He was not drafted in the first round and was not expected to be a starter this year. Mac Jones is another rookie QB. He was drafted in the 1st round and was bound to be a starter this season. Which QB was 21-29 for 312 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs?

Not Mac Jones, that’s who.

The Patriots still came from behind and stole a win. But if Mills keeps playing like this, the name Watson might not matter anymore in Houston.

 

Point 3: I should have had a PBR

Taylor Heinicke? Fuck that shit.

I guess anointed the savior of the Football Team a tad bit too early. Heinicke had an awful game yesterday – throwing 20-41 for 248 yards with 0 TDs and 2 INTs. It was good Winston this week. He tossed 4 TDs while Kamara also ran over the Washington defense as the Saints came marching into DC for an easy win.

 

Point 4: The 0-5 club

Both the Jaguars and the Lions remain winless. The Lions already have an 0-16 season under the belts. Can they get the first 0-17? More than likely, no. After losing a close one to the Vikings yesterday, they are bound to eventually win one. I do admit that I might not bet on them anymore – despite the ATS win yesterday.

I just think I overestimated them and they are indeed a shitshow.

Now, for a team that could absolutely go 0-17: the Jaguars.

There were some positives. Trevor Lawrence had a pretty good game and James Robinson was able to run the ball on the Titans’ defense. But it didn’t matter. This game was out of hand by the early 3rd quarter and Tennessee managed to prevent back-to-back losses to dreadful teams.

 

Point 5: London Calling for a Refund

Man, we just really like sticking it to the Brits. The Jets vs. Falcons. That’s what we sent to them. Two teams that combined for 6 wins last season. Now, I get it. As Arch mentioned on the Sunday show, any team with playoff aspirations won’t be jumping up and down to do this. But give some incentives and maybe they will.

For example, any teams that do this trip would not need to play in a Thursday night game all season and maybe has the choice of playing any of the holiday games like Thanksgiving or Christmas. Basically, give the owners or players ways to offset the disruption to their season as they fly overseas to a neutral site game where a loss could impact their playoff chances.

 

Point 6: The Best Game of the Season

It was not the Sunday night game where the Chiefs laid another dud as they lost to the Bills 38-20. But it did feature an AFC West team and possibly one of the favorites to make it to the Super Bowl this season. That’s right, your Los Angeles Chargers managed to beat another above .500 team. They came from behind to score 26 points in the 4th quarter and beat the Cleveland Browns 47-42.

It really was a hell of a game. Over 1,000 yards of offense, 2 young QBs going toe-to-toe and only 1 turnover in the entire game. One of my favorite games in recent memory was the Chiefs / Rams in 2018 that combined for 105 points. This game is pretty close behind that.

Extra Point: This extra point doesn’t have anything to do with football but another sporting event from over the weekend. That Fury / Wilder 3 fight was amazing. Seriously. That’s what boxing should be. Two big motherfuckers going toe to toe and trying to destroy each other. Fury got the win and deserves it. But Wilder should not be ashamed. Hell of a goddamn fight.

 

NFL Week 5 MNF

Sports Bet Picks for 10/11/21

Indianapolis vs. Baltimore

Spread: Lean Indianapolis +7.5

Total: Lean Under 46 (44)

Predicted Score: Indianapolis 20 – Baltimore 24

Notes: The Colts finally got their first win of the season last week. For a team that was expected to compete in the AFC South, it was probably a little too late for their liking. Still, when you open the season with one of the hardest schedules and have a new QB, maybe it should have been expected.

Things don’t get much easier as they head to Baltimore for a Monday Night Game against the former MPV and mid-game shit-king, Lamar Jackson. The Ravens have won 3 in a row after dropping their season opener in OT. Now granted, they could be 1-3 based on two of those wins coming by a combined 3 points. But here they are with a chance to take the lead in the AFC North.

And they probably do win this game. Their offense is one of the better statistical offenses in the league and their defense is not that far behind the Colts’. Indianapolis just doesn’t haven’t anything that differentiates them or makes them special. I do think they can keep this somewhat competitive so I will lean them with points.

But the Ravens will win and I just don’t have that much room to lay a bet on Indy. As for the total, similar issue for me. I like the under but with a combined score of 44, I just don’t have enough room to bet it.

 

MLB

Sports Bet Picks for 10/11/21

MIL (-103) at ATL (-105)

Pitchers: F. Peralta (ERA: 2.88 – Road ERA: 2.73 – Avg. ML: -141) vs. I. Anderson (ERA: 3.64 – Home ERA: 3.58 – Avg. ML: -119)

Pick: Lean ATL ($10 bet on the under 8 runs)

Notes: The Braves evened up the series on Saturday and now it shifts to Atlanta for the next 2 games. The Brewers will put Freddy Peralta on the mound to face off against Ian Anderson – giving us a pretty good pitching matchup for a third game in a series.

I know Milwaukee won that first game, but they kind of limped into these playoffs and if you recall, this was the series I felt was most likely for an upset. Which leads to today where the Braves have a chance to go up 2-1 with an elimination game tomorrow at home as well.

I like the Braves to get the win today but can’t quite bet it. What I am interested in is the total of under 8. Over the past month, the Braves were 2nd in MLB ERA. They have started the postseason off strong too. Now mix in the bad hitting from the Brewers the past month and you could be looking at another game that’s under 5 runs.

So a $10 bet on the under 8 runs.

 

HOU (105) at CWS (-125)

Pitchers: J. Urquidy (ERA: 3.69 – Road ERA: 3.96 – Avg. ML: -142) vs. C. Rodon (ERA: 2.3 – Home ERA: 2.28 – Avg. ML: -144)

Pick: Lean HOU

Notes: The White Sox managed to avoid a sweep with a win yesterday. Now they will try to even up the series and prevent Houston from a divisional gentleman’s sweep. Houston dominated Chicago in the first two games and jumped out to an early lead yesterday before Chicago woke the fuck up.

The White Sox will put Rodon on the mound today. He’s been really, really good lately. And after Lance Lynn shit the bed in game 1, Lucas Giolito shit the bed in game 2, and Dylan Cease was chased in the 2nd inning yesterday, the White Sox really need Rodon to be very good today.

And I do have them pulling out the win. But its close. Which means the value is on Houston with the plus line. A lean on the Astros.

 

TB () at BOS ()

Pitchers: Undecided (ERA: 0 – Road ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 0) vs. E. Rodriguez (ERA: 5.24 – Home ERA: 6.51 – Avg. ML: -114)

Pick: TBD

Notes: After their marathon game last night, will be interesting to see how each team bounces back. The Red Sox can knock the Rays out today with a win. The Rays have not announced a pitcher yet but expect them to go all-in to get this series back to Tampa.

 

SF (181) at LAD (-199)

Pitchers: A. Wood (ERA: 4.23 – Road ERA: 4.24 – Avg. ML: -124) vs. M. Scherzer (ERA: 2.48 – Home ERA: 2.32 – Avg. ML: -136)

Pick: Bet $10 SF

Notes: If I had a spirit animal, it would probably be Max Scherzer. After the Dodgers secured the Wild Card by beating the Cardinals, Scherzer went to the postgame interview drunk and shirtless. My hero.

Scherzer will get another playoff start tonight as he tries to lead the Dodgers to a series lead over the Giants. He was OK in the Wild Card game. Much better than he had been in his previous 2 starts. But still, you have to wonder if the 37-year-old is starting to feel his age. I mean, he was outpitched in that Wild Card game by a pitcher 3 years his senior. So maybe he can deal with the aches and pains of being middle age for a few more games this season.

Alex Wood will get the start for the Giants today. He’s had an up and down season but ended September strong – posting a 1.38 ERA over his 3 starts that month. Wood was part of the Bubble Champs last season and was critical to their World Series win over the Rays. So he probably would like to stick it to his former team and help the Giants to a legitimate championship this season.

I have the Dodgers winning today. Barely. Which means all of the value is on the Giants here with this plus line. And I will jump on it. $10 bet on San Francisco.

About the Author

Mad Max is a gentle soul who enjoys drinking gin, grooming his beard and betting on sports.

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