Degen Show (10/14/21)

Your favorite Degens give you their Sports Bet Picks for 10/14/21. Listen to the Degen’s MLB futures episode or their mulligan after the All Star break.

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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 10/14/21

NFL Week 6 Thursday Night Football

Sports Bet Picks for 10/14/21

Tampa Bay (-7) vs. Philadelphia (7)

Spread: Bet $50 Tampa Bay

Total: Lean Over

Predicted Score: Tampa Bay 37 – Philadelphia 23 (60)

Notes: Tom Brady is banged up. His hand will be dressed as a mummy for Halloween this year but that won’t stop him. The dude is rolling right now. He’s tossed 15 TDs this year. That’s more than double of the TDs that the opposing QB has tossed.

Of course, poor Jalen Hurts plays two positions on the field as he’s the team’s best rusher and has 3 rushing TDs on the season. He probably won’t rush much this week against the Tampa defense. And any hope of finally getting Miles Sanders the ball will be scrapped by Nick Sirianni.

Sirianni will get another chance at his first home win. He managed to get the Eagles to come back from behind against Carolina on the road last week. Can they upset the defending champs on a short week?

No. I don’t think so. I hate eating this much road chalk – especially on a short week. But Tampa should handle the Eagles and show us that that defense can be exploited. The Eagles are the 3rd best against the pass in the league but 21st in points allowed.

A lot of that has to do with their porous ground defense. And the Bucs happen to have a dude called Leonard Fournette who could run wild this week. Which gives me a little pause of betting Tampa to cover. A lot of pause on betting the over despite my numbers saying to do it.

So a $50 bet on Tampa to cover the spread and just a lean on the over.

 

MLB Playoffs

Sports Bet Picks for 10/14/21

LAD (-104) at SF (-104)

Pitchers: J. Urias (ERA: 3.07 – Road ERA: 2.71 – Avg. ML: -172) vs. L. Webb (ERA: 2.87 – Home ERA: 1.82 – Avg. ML: -111)

Pick: Bet $10 SF

Notes: The final Divisional Round series comes to a close today as the Dodgers and Giants wrap things up to see who will face Atlanta in the next round. The Dodgers will trot out Julio Urias to pitch today as he takes on home-Ace, Logan Webb.

Both pitchers are coming off very good starts but it’s Webb who is the center of attention here. After going 7.2 innings with 10 Ks and no earned runs in his last outing, he continued his trend of sensational pitching at home in San Francisco.

So if Webb can control the Dodgers’ bats today, the Giants should get the win. L.A. seems to only be comfortable if they are scoring runs. In both wins this series, they had big leads to loosen them up. In the tighter games, they seemed to fizzle.

Literal coin flip of a game here and with that, I’ll favor the home team. Hard to imagine the Dodgers going out like this but it has happened before. $10 bet on the Giants.

 

NHL

Sports Bet Picks for 10/14/21

New York Islanders (115) at Carolina Hurricanes (-127)

Pick: Bet $10 New York Islanders

Notes: Carolina was pretty unbeatable at home last season and it is a tough place to play. But I like the Islanders with the plus line here.

 

Seattle Kraken (111) at Nashville Predators (-123)

Pick: Bet $10 Seattle

Notes: Odd line movement on this one. Nashville is a team that’s not on my radar so maybe they end up being great. But I am banking on the Kraken getting their first ever win tonight.

 

Leans

Toronto Maple Leafs (-170) at Ottawa Senators (152)

Pick: Lean Ottawa

 

Montreal Canadiens (-135) at Buffalo Sabres (122)

Pick: Lean Montreal

 

Pittsburgh Penguins (158) at Florida Panthers (-176)

Pick: Lean Pittsburgh

 

Dallas Stars (110) at New York Rangers (-121)

Pick: Lean New York Rangers

 

Arizona Coyotes (131) at Columbus Blue Jackets (-145)

Pick: Lean Columbus

 

Tampa Bay Lightning (-252) at Detroit Red Wings (220)

Pick: Lean Detroit

 

Vegas Golden Knights (-157) at Los Angeles Kings (141)

Pick: Lean Vegas

 

NFL Week 6 Fantasy

Sports Bet Picks for 10/14/21

Week 5 Recap

Not so good. In DFS, Taylor Heinicke was not the value I was looking for. Damien Harris was good. Not great. Jaylen Waddle was shut down again. Derek Henry and Marquez Callaway were my big plays. In my PPR league, I also lost – due in fact to poor outings by Diggs, Thielen and Chase Edmonds.

Starts

QB: Matt Stafford (LAR) – The Rams are heading East to play the Giants and I should be somewhat worried here but the Giants are 22nd in the league in passing yards allowed per game and allow 2 passing TDs per game. The Rams have averaged 310 yards and 2.4 passing TDs – good for 2nd and 4th in the league. Stafford is $7900 at FanDuel and while I’d love to draft Mahomes this week, I think saving $1100 here will matter.

RB: Nick Chubb (CLE) – Arizona is 28th in rushing yards allowed per game and Cleveland has been running the ball like crazy. The downside here is that the Cardinals do not allow rushing TDs too often. But Nick Chubb could change that this week. He’s $8100 at FanDuel so a tad expensive here.

WR: Tyreek Hill (KC) – Well, I passed on Mahomes but I’ll take one of his top targets. I know he is banged up, but Tyreek Hill is worth the risk here. Washington’s defense has not been as good as last season – giving up 293 passing yards per game which ranks 27th. They also give up 2.8 passing TDs per game – which is 31st in the league. Hill is pricey at $8700 on FanDuel.

TE: Evan Engram (NYG) – Here is where I was forced to tighten the belt. Yeah, I’d love to have Kelce here but he was too much money for me. I’ll take a shot with Evan Engram here. He had 4 targets for 55 yards last week against Dallas and the Rams are only 23rd in passing yards allowed. With so many injuries on the Giants, someone needs to get the ball. Maybe it’s Engram. Only $5000 on FanDuel.

DEF: Dallas – I know, the fucking Cowboys, right? But I don’t love New England’s offense and the Cowboys are second in takeaways per game and tied for first in defensive TDs. A rookie QB could make some mistakes that could lead to some Dallas defensive points.

Sits

QB: Baker Mayfield (CLE) – Yeah, he tossed 2 TDs last week but now he faces a tough Arizona secondary that is 8th in yards against in the air. I’d avoid Baker this week – especially since Cleveland should move the ball well on the ground. And maybe toss Kirk into the fade mix this week. Because…

RB: Dalvin Cook (MIN) – I mean, it’s hard to fade a dude like Cook. But it’s a tough matchup against a Carolina team that is 8th best against the run. At $8800, I think you are overpaying for what you might get from Cook this week. Continuing with my Minnesota hate this week…

WR: Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen (MIN) – Carolina is best in the league against the pass – allowing only 161 yards per game. $7900 and $7200 are too much to risk on these guys.

Value

QB: Mac Jones (NE) – I know I took Dallas’ defense because of their takeaways but they still give up passing yards and pass TDs. So maybe Jones is a value play at QB to consider.

RB: Antonio Gibson (WAS) – I wanted to also Pick Jonathan Taylor of Indy, but he’s not quite a value at $7500. But Gibson at $6700 against the 29th ranked defense against the rush seems to be a smart play. The downside here is that if Washington is playing from behind, they might abandon the run.

WR: Van Jefferson (LAR) and Tyler Boyd (CIN) – Both have favorable match-ups against secondaries that give up passing TDs. Van Jefferson is $5400 at FanDuel and Tyler Boyd is $6300.

About the Author

Mad Max is a gentle soul who enjoys drinking gin, grooming his beard and betting on sports.

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