Degen Show (10/2/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 10/2/21
NFL Week 4
Detroit vs. Chicago
Spread: Bet Detroit ML (+139)
Total: Lean Over 41.5 (42)
Predicted Score: Detroit 23 – Chicago 19
Notes: It took the longest field goal in history to beat the Lions last week. I don’t think the Bears will be so luck this week. If you asked me which defense was the better defense, I’d say it’s the Bears. Detroit gives up the most points per game and ranks 22nd in total yards against per game. But if you ask me which Defense seems to be improving week to week, it’s Detroit’s.
Detroit held Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense in check last week – giving up 19 points on 387 yards. The Bears gave up 418 yards last week and 26 points. And had a net total of 47 yards of offense.
It’s sad when I say that the Lions – with Jared fucking Goff at QB – have the more stable quarterback between the two teams. But it’s true. Chicago’s offense is a mess right now and their coaching is not helping.
Give me Detroit for the outright win. $50 moneyline bet on the Lions.
Tennessee vs. NY Jets
Spread: Bet Tennessee -6.5
Total: Lean Under 44.5 (39)
Predicted Score: Tennessee 28 – NY Jets 11
Notes: It’s not a question of will the Jets lose. It’s a question of whether they score double digits. The answer is yes. I think they get to 11 points. Meaning they will get a 2-point conversion for some reason.
The Jets have scored 2 total TDs on the season. Derek Henry has 3 by himself. Tennessee is a bit banged up at wide receiver – which probably means a health dose of Henry this week. As for the Jets, their defense has not been terrible – but being on the field as often as they are as a result of the Jets being 23rd in time of possession – it’s bound to break.
And the offense cannot do anything when it eventually does. This is a team averages 6.7 points per game and 250 yards of total offense. Only New Orleans and Chicago are worse.
Eating this much chalk on a road team is never my preference. But seeing as I have the Titans winning by 17 – I’d call this a value.
$50 bet on Tennessee.
Indianapolis vs. Miami
Spread: Indianapolis $50 ML (+125)
Total: Lean Over 42 (43)
Predicted Score: Indianapolis 24 – Miami 19
Notes: It’s the Jacoby Brissett revenge game! Too bad his Dolphins are going to come up short and the Colts will manage to get their first win. Indy’s zone coverage will give Brissett some fits and Miami’s O-line has some cracks in it this season – giving up 10 sacks in 3 games.
I do think Jaylen Waddle will have a solid game and is a bright spot of this Miami team. But the rest of this Dolphins team looks like a case study in regression. Especially the defense that has given up 401 yards per game and 27.3 points per game.
Wentz should finally have his breakout game for Indy and lead them to a win. $50 moneyline bet on Indianapolis.
Houston vs. Buffalo
Spread: Lean Houston +17
Total: Bet Over 47 (55)
Predicted Score: Buffalo 33 – Houston 22
Notes: Davis Mills gets the start once again for Houston and he will look to take advantage of a Buffalo pash rush that has lacked oompf so far this season. If he has some time, maybe Mills can move the ball and put some points on the board for the Texans.
It won’t be enough to get close to a win. I still have them losing by double-digits. But they should keep it closer than 17 fucking points. So a lean on Houston with the points here.
What I am betting on is the over. Yeah, maybe Josh Allen has shown some signs of regression – but he’s also thrown a fucking TD in 14 straight games. Make that 15 for sure. I think some points get scored on both sides today.
$50 bet on the over 47.
Tampa Bay vs. New England
Spread: Bet Tampa Bay -7
Total: Bet Over 49 (53)
Predicted Score: Tampa Bay 33 – New England 20
Notes: Probably the least interesting game of the week. How did this end up being the Sunday night game? Time to bump Washington / Atlanta into this spot!
The storylines are a plenty in this one. Brady and Gronk head back to Foxborough for the first time as opposition. Brady left and went on to a win a Super Bowl while the Patriots sucked last season. This season has not shown enough hope that New England can be a competitor. Their rookie QB has been so-so through three games and they just lost their starting running back.
Brady should also nab the title for most career throwing year as long as he tosses for more than 68 yards.
Tampa’s defense is a bit banged up – so Mac Jones could have a nice day. Just not nice enough to beat the former Patriots QB this week.
$50 bet on the Bucs and another $50 on the over. Defense be damned! Let’s have some Sunday night madness.
Washington vs. Atlanta
Spread: Lean Atlanta +1.5
Total: Lean Under 47.5 (43)
Predicted Score: Atlanta 22 – Washington 21
Cleveland vs. Minnesota
Spread: Lean Minnesota +2
Total: Lean Over 51.5 (53)
Predicted Score: Cleveland 27 – Minnesota 26
Carolina vs. Dallas
Spread: Lean Carolina +4
Total: Lean Under 51.5 (47)
Predicted Score: Dallas 25 – Carolina 22
NY Giants vs. New Orleans
Spread: Lean New Orleans -7
Total: Lean Over 41.5 (45)
Predicted Score: New Orleans 27 – NY Giants 18
Kansas City vs. Philadelphia
Spread: Lean Kansas City -6.5
Total: Lean Under 54.5 (53)
Predicted Score: Kansas City 32 – Philadelphia 21
Arizona vs. LA Rams
Spread: Lean Arizona +4.5
Total: Lean Over 54 (57)
Predicted Score: Arizona 30 – LA Rams 27
Seattle vs. San Francisco
Spread: Lean San Francisco
Total: Lean Over 52 (55)
Predicted Score: San Francisco 29 – Seattle 26
Baltimore vs. Denver
Spread: Lean Baltimore -1
Total: Lean Over 45 (47)
Predicted Score: Baltimore 25 – Denver 22
Pittsburgh vs. Green Bay
Spread: Lean Pittsburgh +7
Total: Lean Over 45.5 (48)
Predicted Score: Green Bay 27 – Pittsburgh 21
CIN (-166) at PIT (153)
Pitchers: T. Mahle (ERA: 3.52 – Road ERA: 1.77 – Avg. ML: -121) vs. M. Kranick (ERA: 6.32 – Home ERA: 10.8 – Avg. ML: 158)
Pick: Bet $10 PIT
BAL (222) at TOR (-248)
Pitchers: J. Means (ERA: 3.4 – Road ERA: 2.3 – Avg. ML: 125) vs. A. Manoah (ERA: 3.44 – Home ERA: 2.48 – Avg. ML: -128)
Pick: Bet $10 TOR
CHC (156) at STL (-175)
Pitchers: A. Sampson (ERA: 3.15 – Road ERA: 3 – Avg. ML: 186) vs. J. Lester (ERA: 4.94 – Home ERA: 5.01 – Avg. ML: 122)
Pick: Bet $10 CHC
LAA (158) at SEA (-173)
Pitchers: J. Diaz (ERA: 15 – Road ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 100) vs. C. Flexen (ERA: 3.75 – Home ERA: 3.37 – Avg. ML: 120)
Pick: Bet $10 SEA
TB (115) at NYY (-135)
Pitchers: S. Baz (ERA: 1.76 – Road ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: -132) vs. J. Montgomery (ERA: 3.71 – Home ERA: 3.46 – Avg. ML: -127)
Pick: Lean TB
SD (115) at SF (-139)
Pitchers: J. Musgrove (ERA: 3.39 – Road ERA: 3.91 – Avg. ML: -139) vs. K. Gausman (ERA: 2.89 – Home ERA: 3.66 – Avg. ML: -125)
Pick: Lean SF
BOS (150) at WSH (150)
Pitchers: T. Houck (ERA: 0 – Road ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 0) vs. J. Gray (ERA: 5.12 – Home ERA: 5.12 – Avg. ML: 133)
Pick: Lean BOS
PHI (-125) at MIA (105)
Pitchers: H. Crouse (ERA: 3 – Road ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: -224) vs. J. Luzardo (ERA: 6.82 – Home ERA: 5.97 – Avg. ML: 128)
Pick: Lean PHI
CLE (-151) at TEX (139)
Pitchers: T. McKenzie (ERA: 4.72 – Road ERA: 4.49 – Avg. ML: 113) vs. J. Lyles (ERA: 5.72 – Home ERA: 5.34 – Avg. ML: 158)
Pick: Lean CLE
OAK (141) at HOU (-153)
Pitchers: P. Blackburn (ERA: 4.93 – Road ERA: 6.09 – Avg. ML: 114) vs. J. Odorizzi (ERA: 4.44 – Home ERA: 4.17 – Avg. ML: -129)
Pick: Lean HOU
DET (235) at CWS (-263)
Pitchers: M. Manning (ERA: 6.4 – Road ERA: 7.79 – Avg. ML: 145) vs. L. Giolito (ERA: 3.61 – Home ERA: 3.98 – Avg. ML: -153)
Pick: Lean CWS
MIN (-110) at KC (-110)
Pitchers: G. Jax (ERA: 6.75 – Road ERA: 7.38 – Avg. ML: 136) vs. K. Bubic (ERA: 4.94 – Home ERA: 4.66 – Avg. ML: 127)
Pick: Lean KC
NYM (-125) at ATL (-125)
Pitchers: C. Carrasco (ERA: 5.79 – Road ERA: 5.47 – Avg. ML: 108) vs. J. Chavez (ERA: 0 – Home ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 0)
Pick: Lean ATL
COL (124) at ARI (-134)
Pitchers: A. Senzatela (ERA: 4.15 – Road ERA: 4.33 – Avg. ML: 150) vs. Z. Gallen (ERA: 4.49 – Home ERA: 4.29 – Avg. ML: 148)
Pick: Lean ARI
MIL (135) at LAD (-161)
Pitchers: C. Burnes (ERA: 2.26 – Road ERA: 1.67 – Avg. ML: -153) vs. J. Urias (ERA: 3.16 – Home ERA: 3.7 – Avg. ML: -176)
Pick: Lean LAD