Degen Show (10/21/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 10/21/21
NFL Week 7 Fantasy
Week 6 Overview
Another bad DFS week for me. That’s 6 bad weeks in a row, ha. Matt Stafford, Jonathon Taylor, Tyreek Hill and the Dallas defense were my shining spots. Antonio Gibson could not run on that stout Chiefs defense, Tyler Boyd could not exploit the Detroit secondary, Austin Ekeler was Houdini this week and Van Jefferson was the one wide receiver Stafford forgot about.
In my PPR league, that was another win for me. But it came on Monday night as Stefon Diggs had a solid game and I had to overcome a deficit thanks to my opponent having Cooper Kupp.
QB: Matt Stafford (LAR) – Once again, I’ll back Stafford. He’s playing his former team and will want to shine in LA. The Lions don’t have a terrible pass defense but they do give up 2 pass TDs per game and the Rams throw for 2.7 pass TDs per game – which ranks tied for 3rd in the NFL. Stafford is $8100 at FanDuel.
RB: Derek Henry (TEN) – Henry is the best back in the game. The Titans offense is 3rd in the league in rushing yards and 1st in rushing TDs thanks to him. The Chiefs defense is 27th in rushing yards allowed and 30th with rushing TDs allowed. Am I dropping $11k on Henry? Yes. Yes I am. I will find ways to save later.
WR: Calvin Ridley (ATL) – He’s getting targets each game and against the aforementioned Miami defense, he could get some more yards and a chance at a TD. He’s $7300 so saves $700 instead of taking the bigger named Cordarrelle Patterson.
TE: Kyle Pitts (ATL) – Miami gives up pass yards and pass TDs. Pitts does not find the endzone but if that changes this week, he could be in for a lot of points. He’s $6100 at FanDuel
DEF: Green Bay – I love the Arizona defense against Houston this week. But I really don’t have $5000 to spend. So instead, I’ll take the Packers defense against the Washington offense. Green Bay has a decent defense but they can create turnovers and I’m not sure if Washington can exploit the Packers’ inability to stop passing TDs. At $4100, it’s saving me some money with some value.
QB: Davis Mills (HOU) – Arizona has done well against the pass. So if you want to take a value shot on QB, it’s not Davis Mills this week. Mac Jones is another rookie I might want to avoid as the Jets pass defense has stepped up and does not allow pass TDs.
RB: Miles Gaskin (MIA) – Maybe he can make up some yards with receptions but he’s been struggling on the ground and faces a tougher Atlanta rush defense this week.
WR: Antonio Brown (TB) – He’s a bit banged up and the Bears defense is pretty good against the pass. Brady might need to find other targets to help him score if the Bears focus on shutting down Brown. At $7400, there is some risk of not getting the value at the cost.
QB: Matt Ryan (ATL) – He’s $7300 at FanDuel and I like his matchup against the Dolphins. This could be a big game for Matty Ice this week.
RB: Chase Edmonds (ARZ) – Tough when selecting a running back in platoon but Edmonds has been the guy more than Connor has. He’s a bit banged up but he gets attempts and also targets as a catching back. The lack of TDs is concerning but the Houston defense gives up 141 rushing yards per game and 1.8 rushing TDs per game. This could be a nice value with Edmonds costing $6200.
WR: Jaylen Waddle (MIA) or Robby Anderson (CAR) – I have been burned by Waddle before but Atlanta gives up passing TDs and Waddle / Tua could hook up for one this week. For Anderson, the same can be said with him scoring on that Giants defense that allows 2.3 pass TDs per game.
NFL Week 7 Thursday Night Football
Denver (2) vs. Cleveland (-2)
Spread: Lean Cleveland
Total: Lean Over 40.5
Predicted Score: Denver 19 – Cleveland 24 (43)
Notes: The Browns are beaten up. They are down 2 running backs and their starting QB. The status of Baker Mayfield moving forward is in question. Doctors are telling him not to play but he wants to. For this week, he won’t go for the Browns – breaking a 52 game streak which was one of the longest in the NFL.
Case Keenum will get the start in his place and he’s a serviceable QB. He and the opposing QB – Teddy Bridgewater – both had success with the Vikings before they wasted a fortune on Kirk Cousins. I like Keenum this week to lead the Browns to a win but maybe that has more to do with my dislike for this Broncos team.
They have not faired well against any team that is somewhat decent. Even without Chubb, Hunt and Mayfield the Browns are better than the Giants, Jets and Jaguars.
A lean on Cleveland here.
ATL (120) at LAD (-140)
Pitchers: M. Fried (ERA: 3 – Road ERA: 2.93 – Avg. ML: -121) vs. C. Knebel (ERA: 2.9 – Home ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: -165)
Pick: Lean LAD
Notes: The Braves look to close out the series tonight and avoid a 3-1 series lead being blown once again to the Dodgers. Max Fried is slated to start for Atlanta while Corey Knebel might get the open – though its not completely decided on that.
Atlanta has shown they can more than hang with LA. I have the Dodgers winning this one but cannot bet them right now with confidence.
New York Islanders (-139) at Columbus Blue Jackets (125)
Pick: Bet $10 New York Islanders
Notes: Early in the season thus far, its been Columbus who has looked like contenders and the Islanders like the struggling team I thought Columbus would be. But let’s look at the competition here. New York lost to Carolina and Florida. Columbus has beaten Arizona and Seattle.
New York finally got a win over the Blackhawks and continue their road trip today and it will be awhile until they are home. This is game 4 of a record-setting 13-game road trip to start the year. The main reason is they are waiting for their new arena to be completed.
So betting New York early in this season is going to be touch and go. Today it will be a bet.
Columbus is 2-0 at home this season and their loss was on the road to Detroit. I think New York, despite the chalk and despite the road weariness already, can give them loss #1 at home.
$10 bet on New York.
Washington Capitals (-127) at New Jersey Devils (110)
Pick: Lean Washington
Carolina Hurricanes (-127) at Montreal Canadiens (115)
Pick: Lean Montreal
Colorado Avalanche (-101) at Florida Panthers (-109)
Pick: Lean Colorado
San Jose Sharks (101) at Ottawa Senators (-112)
Pick: Lean San Jose
Calgary Flames (-132) at Detroit Red Wings (119)
Pick: Lean Calgary
Anaheim Ducks (168) at Winnipeg Jets (-193)
Pick: Lean Winnipeg
New York Rangers (-103) at Nashville Predators (-109)
Pick: Lean Nashville
Vancouver Canucks (116) at Chicago Blackhawks (-131)
Pick: Lean Vancouver
Edmonton Oilers (-185) at Arizona Coyotes (162)
Pick: Lean Arizona
DAL (2.5) at ATL (-2.5)
Pick: Bet $10 ATL
Total: 224.5 (Lean Over – 232)
Predicted Score: DAL 114 – ATL 118
Notes: Luca and Trae will forever be linked due to their draft-day trade. Trae made more strides last year as a playoff threat and possible Reggie Miller-like villain. Can Luca make the same strides this year? Much harder for him in the West but after what he did in the Olympics, maybe so. As for this game?
I think Atlanta wins today and covers. $10 bet on Atlanta.
MIL (-2.5) at MIA (2.5)
Pick: Lean MIA
Total: 223.5 (Bet $10 Over – 245)
Predicted Score: MIL 122 – MIA 123
Notes: Interesting to see if Miami can compete this season after making their bubble run two seasons ago. Milwaukee beat the Nets in their banner-raising debut. I like Miami to win this one but its close. I’ll lean the Heat here. But I will bet $10 on the over.
LAC (3.5) at GSW (-3.5)
Pick: Lean LAC
Total: 226.5 (Lean Under – 223)
Predicted Score: LAC 111 – GSW 112
Notes: Can the Warriors knock off both LA teams to start the year? Probably! But I don’t have them covering. Lean LAC.