Degen Show (10/23/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 10/23/21
NFL Week 7
Kansas City (-4) vs. Tennessee (4)
Spread: Bet $50 Tennessee
Total: Lean Under 57.5
Predicted Score: Kansas City 28 – Tennessee 27 (55)
Notes: The last times these teams played, the Chiefs punched their ticket to the Super Bowl and we were left expecting that the Titans would be contenders for years to come. Last season was odd because of the COVID impact and this season Tennessee has played some uninspiring football at times. See also the OT loss to the fucking Jets.
So was the 2019 season just a fluke for this team? No. Ryan Tannehill, Derek Henry and this Titans team could certainly make their way back to the AFC Championship game this year if they stay healthy and focused.
Last week’s big win over AFC contending Buffalo Bills, and the unstoppable force that is Derek Henry, tell me that Tennessee can be a team to beat. A win over the Chiefs this week could further solidify that.
KC has dug themselves into a bit of a hole in the AFC. They have lost to Chargers, Bills and Ravens and barely beat the Browns in week 1. The defense can stop the likes of Washington but struggle with dynamic offenses. So this could be a rough week for Spags and the KC D.
Offensively, this team looks like a knockoff version of the Chiefs offense of previous years. They can still score points and there are some big plays sprinkled in there. But teams have caught up with them, Kelce and Hill have lost a step due to injuries and Mahomes’ magic has worn off a little.
I do think they still get the win this week. But I have this as a 1 point game. I’ll bet $50 on Tennessee at home getting these points.
NY Jets (7) vs. New England (-7)
Spread: Lean New England
Total: Bet $50 Under
Predicted Score: NY Jets 14 – New England 23 (37)
Notes: Maybe this is the obvious, square sucker play here. But the under was screaming at me in this game. The Jets are averaging under 14 points per game on the season and are playing a decent Patriots defense that held New York to 6 points last time they played.
For New England, they play a Jets’ defense that has had success preventing QBs from killing them – preventing passing TDs. Some of the Jets’ yards allowed per game are a bit of a deception since their inept offense gives shorter fields to opponents. But they should be able to limit Mac Jones and keep this score lower.
I have New England winning and covering this one. But I really don’t trust them – even at home – winning by a TD against anyone. I do think the play in this one is the under. So $50 on under 43.
Atlanta (-2.5) vs. Miami (2.5)
Spread: Bet $50 Atlanta
Total: Bet $50 Under 47.5
Predicted Score: Atlanta 23 – Miami 16 (39)
Notes: I made money last week betting on Atlanta and against Miami. Time to put the hands together and create the super shit-team bet. Miami has lost 5 games in a row since winning their 1-point season opener over the Patriots.
Three of those games were without their second-year QB as Tua was dealing with an injury and now he’s dealing with trade rumors. Flores came out and said Tua is their QB. Which, yes, that is indeed a factual statement. He is currently your QB. But will he be if a proposed trade for DeShaun Watson goes down on Tuesday as many predict?
For Atlanta, their lone wins are over the Jets and Giants. So this looks like a winnable game for them for sure. The Falcons are a weird team. Pretty much middle of the pack when it comes to offense and a defense that isn’t that bad.
Until it gets to the redzone.
Atlanta is 31st in points allowed and have fallen victim to letting other defenses put up some points on them. But I don’t Miami to be able to exploit these weaknesses.
$50 bet on the Falcons to go on the road, win and cover. I also like the under in this game. Again, Atlanta gives up points but I don’t think Miami will take advantage of that. So $50 on the under as well.
Chicago (13) vs. Tampa Bay (-13)
Spread: Bet $50 Tampa
Total: Lean Over 47
Predicted Score: Chicago 15 – Tampa Bay 33 (48)
Notes: There were two games where I had big favorites covering this week. And I just could not convince myself to bet on an 18-point favorite despite me having them winning by 20. So instead, I’ll take the team that is only a 13 point favorite who I have winning by 18.
I am interested in seeing how the Bears come out this week after the shocking revelation that they have always been owned by a mysterious organization known as Fraudgers Inc. Chicago has had a weird season so far. They have gotten some impressive wins over teams like Las Vegas and Cincinnati but have also looked inept in their losses.
For Tampa, they have had some extra time off since their last game was a Thursday night game. That was a bit of a close game for this Tampa team but it could be chalked up to short week and on the road. In fact, through 3 road games, they lost to the Rams, beat New England by only 2 points in a low scoring game and only beat Philly by 6 last week.
At home? Their average margin of victory is 17.6 points and they have slaughtered lesser teams such as Atlanta and Miami in the process. The Bears are not quite that dreadful – but they are an offense that is 30th in points per game and dead last in yards per game with 246.
The running game has been the majority of those yards – averaging 129 rushing yards per game. How is that going to work going against the #1 rush defense that allows 55 rush yards per game? If the run game is shutdown can Justin Fields, a QB who is dead last in QBR so far this season, step up?
I say no. I say this is a blowout. I say Tampa covers.
$50 bet on the Bucs.
Detroit (16) vs. LA Rams (-16)
Spread: Lean Detroit
Total: Lean Under 51
Predicted Score: Detroit 19 – LA Rams 31 (50)
Notes: Lions are 0-6 and coming off a big loss to the Bengals. The Rams are coming off a blowout win over the Giants. The Rams are 6th in points per game and the Lions 28th. LA puts up 401 yards per game of offense while Detroit puts up 321.
Carolina (-3) vs. NY Giants (3)
Spread: Lean Carolina
Total: Lean Under 42.5
Predicted Score: Carolina 25 – NY Giants 17 (42)
Notes: The Panthers have regressed a bit with 3 consecutive losses. Still, they have played some better competition and two of those losses were close. The loss of Christian McCaffrey has been a problem for sure. For the Giants, they were competitive to start the season but in blowout losses recently, it could be that Joe Judge has lost this team and will be out the door soon.
Ironically, it was Matt Rhule of the Panthers they passed on to hire Judge.
Cincinnati (6.5) vs. Baltimore (-6.5)
Spread: Lean Cincinnati
Total: Lean Over 46.5
Predicted Score: Cincinnati 23 – Baltimore 29 (52)
Notes: The Bengals’ 2 losses were by a combined 6 points – losing by 3 to the bears and by a field goal in a weird one against the Packers in OT a few weeks back. Baltimore has had 3 closer wins but are coming off that big win over the Chargers last week. Running back injures continue to plague the Ravens.
Washington (7.5) vs. Green Bay (-7.5)
Spread: Lean Washington
Total: Lean Under 48
Predicted Score: Washington 22 – Green Bay 25 (47)
Notes: The Packers are 5-1 and coming off a win over their division rival Bears. Washington has lost their last 2 and don’t appear anything like the team they were last season.
Philadelphia (3) vs. Las Vegas (-3)
Spread: Lean Vegas
Total: Lean Over 48.5
Predicted Score: Philadelphia 24 – Las Vegas 28 (52)
Notes: The Raiders are 1-0 since Gruden resigned. The win over Denver broke their 2 game losing streak and kept them in the running for the AFC West. The Eagles looked impressive in their loss to the Bucs. Need to see if they can build on that momentum this week.
Houston (18) vs. Arizona (-18)
Spread: Lean Arizona
Total: Lean Over 47
Predicted Score: Houston 14 – Arizona 34 (48)
Notes: Matchup nightmare for Houston here. Arizona should easily improve to 7-0 this week.
Indianapolis (4) vs. San Francisco (-4)
Spread: Lean Indianapolis
Total: Lean Over 42.5
Predicted Score: Indianapolis 22 – San Francisco 23 (45)
Notes: Injuries continue to impact the Niners. They’ve lost 3 in a row after losing to the Cardinals last week. The Colts have looked more competitive the past few weeks and could exploit a mediocre Niners’ rush defense.
LAD (-177) at ATL (162)
Pitchers: Undecided (ERA: 0 – Road ERA: 0 – Avg. ML: 0) vs. I. Anderson (ERA: 3.56 – Home ERA: 3.42 – Avg. ML: -113)
Pick: Lean LAD
Notes: No pitcher announced for LAD with Scherzer injured. The money is still hitting LA and the books are making the line worse. So seems like LA could be the play here to force a game 7.
ATL (-7.5) at CLE (7.5)
Pick: Lean CLE
Total: 222.5 (Bet $10 Over – 232)
Predicted Score: ATL 119 – CLE 113
MIA (-4.5) at IND (4.5)
Pick: Lean IND
Total: 225.5 (Bet $10 Over – 242)
Predicted Score: MIA 122 – IND 120
MIL (-7.5) at SAS (7.5)
Pick: Bet $10 SAS
Total: 223.5 (Bet $10 Over – 245)
Predicted Score: MIL 120 – SAS 125
DAL (-3.5) at TOR (3.5)
Pick: Lean TOR
Total: 215 (Lean Over – 217)
Predicted Score: DAL 110 – TOR 107
DET (9) at CHI (-9)
Pick: Lean CHI
Total: 213.5 (Lean Over – 216)
Predicted Score: DET 103 – CHI 113
NOP (6.5) at MIN (-6.5)
Pick: Lean NOP
Total: 229 (Lean Under – 228)
Predicted Score: NOP 112 – MIN 116
PHX (2.5) at POR (-2.5)
Pick: Lean PHX
Total: 231.5 (Lean Over – 233)
Predicted Score: PHX 116 – POR 117
MEM (3.5) at LAC (-3.5)
Pick: Lean MEM
Total: 225.5 (Bet $10 Under – 215)
Predicted Score: MEM 106 – LAC 109
Vancouver Canucks (122) at Seattle Kraken (-134)
Pick: Bet $10 Seattle
Calgary Flames (124) at Washington Capitals (-137)
Pick: Bet $10 Calgary
Carolina Hurricanes (-143) at Columbus Blue Jackets (129)
Pick: Bet $10 Columbus
Buffalo Sabres (170) at New Jersey Devils (-195)
Pick: Lean Buffalo
New York Rangers (-146) at Ottawa Senators (132)
Pick: Lean Ottawa
Anaheim Ducks (214) at Minnesota Wild (-244)
Pick: Lean Minnesota
Detroit Red Wings (142) at Montreal Canadiens (-158)
Pick: Lean Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs (-146) at Pittsburgh Penguins (129)
Pick: Lean Toronto
Colorado Avalanche (-102) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-108)
Pick: Lean Tampa Bay
Florida Panthers (-142) at Philadelphia Flyers (128)
Pick: Lean Philadelphia
Nashville Predators (112) at Winnipeg Jets (-126)
Pick: Lean Nashville
Los Angeles Kings (145) at St. Louis Blues (-175)
Pick: Lean Los Angeles
New York Islanders (-190) at Arizona Coyotes (169)
Pick: Lean Arizona