Degen Show (10/25/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 10/25/21
Max’s Week 7 Touchdown
Point 1: Fail to the Chiefs
Kansas City is in trouble. No, not talking about their defense. Not talking about Mahomes not throwing for a TD in a game since being born. Not even talking about being 3-4 and tied with the goddamn Broncos for last place in the AFC West.
I’m talking about them allowing a KOD from happening. KC looked fairly overmatched by the Titans in their 27-3 loss yesterday and if we weren’t worried about the Chiefs before, we might want to start.
Point 2: The Wrath of Bill
When rookie QB Zach Wilson went down with an injury for the Jets yesterday and the game already out of hand, Bill decided to go for the jugular, the brain, the gut and anything else he could stab with his pointed demon horns.
The Patriots destroyed the Jets 54-13 yesterday and single-handedly wrecked my under play. Mac Jones finally had a completely good game and Damien Harris ran all over the Jets. For New York, Wilson could be out for a bit pending results of an MRI and back-up Mike White did a good impression of him throwing for 202 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs.
He should have stopped when he was 1-1 with a TD.
Point 3: Well, I’ll be Sammed
Maybe I was took quick to give Sam Darnold credit for being a competent QB that was destroyed by the Jets. Because he saw the ghosts of the Meadowlands again yesterday as the Giants stomped the Panthers 25-3.
Darnold was ineffective throwing for 111 yards with no TDs and an INT. Darnold was benched in the 4th as he was outplayed by his former NY QB in misery Daniel Jones. It can be said that Darnold has not been the same without Christian McCaffrey and his absence once again brings up the argument that a player should receive MVP votes if their team crumbles when they get injured.
Point 4: Chase for the AFC North
There are two teams in the AFC North with 5-2 records. There’s the Ravens – which was expected. And then there is the Bengals. Who kicked the shit out of the Ravens yesterday.
We’ve all been questioning the legitimacy of the Ravens’ record this season and even their big win last win seemed suspect. And now Burrow and the Bengals showed us why. Arch’s man crush on Ja’Marr Chase was on full display yesterday as he hauled in 201 yards with a TD.
As the Browns look at their banged up QB and their season in a bit of disarray, they also need to look at the Bengals and wonder if they have been leapfrogged already.
Point 5: Big favorites, no problem
The Cardinals were 18 point favorites yesterday and the Bucs were 13 point favorites. Well, it could have been 26 and 35 respectively. The Cardinals improved to 7-0 on the year and the Bucs to 6-1 as they each decimated their opponents yesterday.
The Texans managed 5 points while the Bears – led by Justin Fields and his 3 INTs and 1.9 QBR on the day (ahem) – got 3 points on the Bucs.
Vegas might have scared some people off yesterday with these big lines but if there are some one-sided match-ups like this next week, we could see some college-sized lines on the board for us to ponder.
Point 6: I’d Guess So
When asked if Jimmy G would be his QB moving forward, Kyle Shanahan said, “I’d guess so.” This might be the best endorsement of a QB ever. It could be worse. A former teammate could have said “You can’t win with a bitch for a quarterback.”
Oh wait, that also happened to Jimmy G yesterday as he saw his Niners team get routed on Sunday Night Football by Carson Wentz and the Colts.
Indy is now 3-4 and moving in the right direction. The Niners are 2-4 and are in big trouble.
Extra Point: Goff Gonna Goff
The Lions played a great game against the Rams. They had the lead for a good chunk of that game, had it in the 4th and had a chance to regain it. Jared Goff was driving the team down the field against the Rams’ defense and had them in the red zone.
And then he Goffed the ball up.
Feeling pressure from Aaron Donald, Goff threw a bad pass into the endzone that was promptly picked off by Jalen Ramsey. That essentially killed the Lions’ chance of winning the game and it was the thesis statement of why the Rams had to move on from him if they wanted to compete for a Super Bowl.
Goff is a good QB. He’s got some skills. But he’s not the guy a team can trust when it matters most. I’ve seen it for years and now the Lions fans will understand this torture firsthand as well.
NFL Week 7 MNF
New Orleans (-4) vs. Seattle (4)
Spread: Lean New Orleans
Total: Lean Over
Predicted Score: New Orleans 29 – Seattle 23 (52)
Notes: It almost seems like a no-brainer to bet the Saints here. They are coming off a bye that allowed them to get healthier. They have a stout run defense that has allowed 100 yards of rushing only once this season. They are facing a Seahawks team that is battered, languishing at the bottom of the NFC and have Geno Smith at QB.
I have defended the Seahawks in my power rankings thus far. Despite the losses, they have managed to maintain an offense that was scoring points when they had the ball. This could be the week where that changes. The only thing Seattle has going for them this week is that they are at home.
But at 0-2 at home this year, that doesn’t even seem to matter.
And still, I cannot trust the Saints. With Geno Smith, you know what you will be getting. With Jameis Winston, it can vary week-to-week. And those swings are just too unpredictable for me.
Lean on New Orleans.
MIL (-3) at IND (3)
Pick: Bet $10 IND
Total: 230 (Lean Over – 241)
Predicted Score: MIL 119 – IND 122
Notes: Milwaukee is banged up and Indy has been able to hang in some close games so far this season. Until the Bucks are healthy, there could be some money made by betting against them. I have the Pacers winning this game but I will take the points. $10 bet on Indy.
WAS (8.5) at BKN (-8.5)
Pick: Bet $10 WAS
Total: 233.5 (Lean Under – 227)
Predicted Score: WAS 114 – BKN 113
Notes: I get it that the Wizards are not the same high-powered offense they were last season. But former Net Spencer Dinwiddie has looked really good to start the season and this line just looks like a tad bit too much to me. I think Washington can keep it closer – despite the MVP-like tear KD has started the season with. $10 bet on the Wizards.
CHI (-2.5) at TOR (2.5)
Pick: Bet $10 CHI
Total: 212 (Lean Under – 201)
Predicted Score: CHI 104 – TOR 97
Notes: The Bulls are 3-0 but as Panther pointed out on the show yesterday, they haven’t beaten anyone. And they won’t get that chance today either as they face the Raptors – a team in a bit of a rebuild. The Bulls are still a team that needs to earn my trust after being burned by them last year. Maybe today they can start that. $10 bet on Chicago.
POR (3) at LAC (-3)
Pick: Bet $10 POR ML (+132)
Total: 232.5 (Lean Under – 224)
Predicted Score: POR 114 – LAC 110
Notes: The Blazers came out of the gate and looked like they were washed up. Then they smoked the Suns on Saturday. So who the fuck knows what happens today. What I do know is that I don’t like this Clippers team without Kawhi. And even with him, they seem to be lacking overall talent as PG13 leads the team in points, rebounds and assists through 2 games. Portland should get the win today. $10 moneyline bet on the Blazers.
BOS (-1) at CHA (1)
Pick: Lean BOS
Total: 224.5 (Lean Over – 226)
Predicted Score: BOS 114 – CHA 112
ORL (14) at MIA (-14)
Pick: Lean MIA
Total: 214.5 (Lean Over – 219)
Predicted Score: ORL 101 – MIA 118
DET (11) at ATL (-11)
Pick: Lean ATL
Total: 213 (Lean Under – 211)
Predicted Score: DET 99 – ATL 112
NOP (5.5) at MIN (-5.5)
Pick: Lean MIN
Total: 225.5 (Lean Under – 220)
Predicted Score: NOP 107 – MIN 113
CLE (10.5) at DEN (-10.5)
Pick: Lean CLE
Total: 221 (Lean Over – 223)
Predicted Score: CLE 108 – DEN 115
Dallas Stars (-130) at Columbus Blue Jackets (117)
Pick: Bet $10 Dallas
Notes: I don’t know what to think of this Columbus team. I finally bought into their hype and they burned me on Saturday. Dallas has won 2 in a row and seem to be getting some things in order – but still, they are playing close games and hard to bet a favorite when you know the game will be close.
I’ll do it anyway. $10 bet on the Stars.
Los Angeles Kings (150) at St. Louis Blues (-175)
Pick: Bet $10 Los Angeles
Notes: Here’s my lottery ticket for the day. The Blues are 4-0 and look like an early season contender. They just smashed the Kings 7-3 on Saturday. Yet the line is seemingly getting better for them. They do probably win this one as its hard to think this Kings team can go on the road and beat them – but the line movement and plus line will have me doing dumb things and bet $10 on LA.
Calgary Flames (120) at New York Rangers (-133)
Pick: Lean Calgary
Washington Capitals (-166) at Ottawa Senators (149)
Pick: Lean Ottawa
Tampa Bay Lightning (-210) at Buffalo Sabres (180)
Pick: Lean Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs (-101) at Carolina Hurricanes (-110)
Pick: Lean Toronto
Arizona Coyotes (272) at Florida Panthers (-318)
Pick: Lean Arizona