Degen Show (10/26/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 10/26/21
ATL (118) at HOU (-128)
Pitchers: C. Morton (ERA: 3.38 – Road ERA: 3 – Avg. ML: -128) vs. F. Valdez (ERA: 3.3 – Home ERA: 3.94 – Avg. ML: -139)
Pick: Bet $10 ATL
Notes: The Braves managed to eliminate the bubble champs and now face another former World Series winner that has question marks on their trophy. The Astros look to give the middle finger to everyone by winning the World Series again but it’s not going to be an easy road.
It’s well-documented on this show that the Braves had some major issues most of this season but turned it around when it mattered most. A huge part of that is their pitching. They put veteran Charlie Morton on the mound today and he continues to produce as a starter.
Overall, Atlanta has a 3.41 team ERA in the playoffs – which is fairly better than Houston’s 4.50. Hitting-wise, the Astros have the edge – batting .281 compared to the Braves’ .250 and knocking in 27 more runs.
But while Atlanta has won in the postseason with their pitching, we know they also can turn it on offensively when they have to. Which makes them a nice bet on this series.
As for the first game, I think there is value with them here with the plus line. So I’ll drop $10 on the Braves.
GSW (-9) at OKC (9)
Pick: Bet $10 GSW
Total: 223 (Lean Under – 222)
Predicted Score: GSW 117 – OKC 105
Notes: Right now there are two constants I can see in the NBA. The Warriors are a winning team. OKC is not. Now, like everything in the NBA, that’s bound to change in an instant. And it could be tonight. But seeing OKC continually lose by double-digits and how Steph Curry is playing right now, I’ll take a square sucker play.
$10 bet on the Warriors.
HOU (11) at DAL (-11)
Pick: Bet $10 HOU
Total: 221.5 (Lean Over – 232)
Predicted Score: HOU 113 – DAL 119
Notes: Dallas will make their home debut as the Rockets come into town. Houston was dominant against the Thunder – because, well, they suck. But the moment they faced some competition – and yes, Boston is some competition – they did not fair as well.
I’m still trying to figure out which direction Dallas is going in. They have one of the best young players in the league. And well, I guess that’s it.
They should come out and win today but I am just not super confident they cover this one.
$10 bet on Houston.
DEN (7.5) at UTA (-7.5)
Pick: Bet $10 DEN
Total: 219 (Lean Under – 206)
Predicted Score: DEN 103 – UTA 103
Notes: When comparing these two teams – and it’s unfair without Jamaal Murray on the court – there is a clear separation between them. The Jazz have started the season off much where they were last year – playing great ball and winning. Denver has looked uneven through two games.
They dropped a silly one to the Cavs on the road yesterday and now turn around in a back-to-back to play a Jazz team that was pretty much unbeatable at home last year. Utah should get the win again today but not sure about covering.
$10 bet on Denver.
PHI (1) at NYK (-1)
Pick: Lean PHI
Total: 218.5 (Lean Under – 216)
Predicted Score: PHI 108 – NYK 108
LAL (-4.5) at SAS (4.5)
Pick: Lean SAS
Total: 220.5 (Lean Over – 235)
Predicted Score: LAL 119 – SAS 116
Tampa Bay Lightning (-140) at Pittsburgh Penguins (126)
Pick: Bet $10 Pittsburgh
Notes: Some value with the Penguins at home. The money is on Tampa and line is getting better for them so looking a bit trappish there. The Penguins are playing some good hockey right out of the gate while Tampa is slow to start – similar to last season.
I’ll take Pittsburgh at home with a plus line. $10 bet on the Penguins.
Calgary Flames (104) at New Jersey Devils (-114)
Pick: Lean Calgary
Vegas Golden Knights (157) at Colorado Avalanche (-176)
Pick: Lean Colorado
San Jose Sharks (120) at Nashville Predators (-133)
Pick: Lean San Jose
Minnesota Wild (-120) at Vancouver Canucks (109)
Pick: Lean Minnesota
Winnipeg Jets (-138) at Anaheim Ducks (125)
Pick: Lean Winnipeg
Montreal Canadiens (112) at Seattle Kraken (-123)
Pick: Lean Montreal