Degen Show (10/27/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 10/27/21
ATL (113) at HOU (-122)
Pitchers: M. Fried (ERA: 3.18 – Road ERA: 3.28 – Avg. ML: -120) vs. J. Urquidy (ERA: 4.07 – Home ERA: 3.4 – Avg. ML: -139)
Pick: Lean ATL
Notes: The Braves came out and took game 1. And they did so after losing their starting pitcher to a broken leg. Charlie Morton broke his leg and continued to pitch until he couldn’t literally stand anymore. Perhaps that’ll be the rallying cry for the Braves as they try to go 2 up on the Astros today.
And I think they have a chance.
Neither pitcher is coming off a good performance. Fried got hit hard by the Dodgers and Urquidy got pulled in the second inning his last time out after giving up 5 earned runs. But I think Fried’s upside is a bit more than Urquidy’s in this game which should give Atlanta a chance to get to an early lead.
That said, it’s hard to imagine the Astros going down 2-0 in this series. They are a resilient bunch and unless Dusty Baker bakers this thing up, they are a dangerous team.
A lean on Atlanta here.
WAS (4.5) at BOS (-4.5)
Pick: Bet $10 WAS
Total: 222.5 (Lean Over – 224)
Predicted Score: WAS 115 – BOS 109
Notes: Jason Tatum dropped 41 points in his last game and maybe that’s what he needs to average if the Celtics have a chance to compete this season. Through 4 games, they are 2-2 and have played 2 OT games already. Last time they played at home they were humiliated by the Raptors.
And it’s possible they lose again today at home.
Washington has looked pretty good to start the year. Despite coming off a double-digit loss to the Nets, they look like a more balanced team through 3 games. It’s not just Beal scoring 30 points a game. They have 4 players averaging double-digits and two more averaging close to 10 points a game.
Brown and Tatum are combining for 56 points per game. If one or both go cold, it’s gonna be a problem.
I have Washington winning this one but I’ll take the points. $10 bet on the Wizards.
CHA (-6) at ORL (6)
Pick: Bet $10 CHA
Total: 217 (Lean Over – 221)
Predicted Score: CHA 116 – ORL 105
Notes: Orlando managed to get their first win of the season by beating the Knicks. So now I don’t have to worry about them being winless and make me second-guess this bet on Charlotte. The Hornets are 3-1 after an OT loss against Boston two days ago.
Miles Bridges has taken over as primary scorer while LaMelo is turning into a great all-around player in his second year. Add in the depth of Hayward, Rozier and Oubre Jr. and this is a team to keep an eye on in the East.
And I like them today to get the win and cover. So a $10 bet on the Hornets.
MIA (4.5) at BKN (-4.5)
Pick: Lean MIA
Total: 218 (Lean Under – 217)
Predicted Score: MIA 108 – BKN 109
ATL (-6.5) at NOP (6.5)
Pick: Lean ATL
Total: 220 (Lean Under – 213)
Predicted Score: ATL 111 – NOP 102
IND (-1.5) at TOR (1.5)
Pick: Lean IND
Total: 219 (Lean Over – 221)
Predicted Score: IND 113 – TOR 108
LAL (-9) at OKC (9)
Pick: Lean OKC
Total: 220.5 (Lean Over – 223)
Predicted Score: LAL 116 – OKC 107
MIN (7.5) at MIL (-7.5)
Pick: Lean MIN
Total: 228.5 (Lean Under – 225)
Predicted Score: MIN 113 – MIL 112
MEM (2) at POR (-2)
Pick: Lean MEM
Total: 234 (Lean Over – 238)
Predicted Score: MEM 118 – POR 120
SAC (8) at PHX (-8)
Pick: Lean SAC
Total: 226 (Lean Under – 226)
Predicted Score: SAC 113 – PHX 113
CLE (8) at LAC (-8)
Pick: Lean CLE
Total: 217 (Lean Over – 219)
Predicted Score: CLE 106 – LAC 113
Boston Bruins (113) at Florida Panthers (-125)
Pick: Bet $10 Florida
Notes: The Panthers are 6-0 and have the best goal differential in hockey. The one concern is that they do have one of the higher PDO’s in the league so there is bound to be some regression at some point – but early on the season, I’m expecting them to keep playing at this high level.
Boston is playing some good hockey too and Brad Marchand is off to a good start to his season. But the Panthers have been beating some really good teams and they are very tough to beat at home. This is a team that I had ranked 3rd overall in my preseason rankings and so far, so good.
$10 bet on the Panthers.
Philadelphia Flyers (144) at Edmonton Oilers (-160)
Pick: Bet $10 Edmonton
Notes: Another team I had in my top 10 in the league was the Edmonton Oilers. They already had the best player in hockey and made some offseason moves that should set them up for a postseason run.
The bipolar Flyers are coming into town tonight. This is a team that looks good one night and then looks like a bottom-dweller the next. I am hoping it’s the latter team that shows up tonight.
$10 bet on the Oilers.
Detroit Red Wings (177) at Washington Capitals (-199)
Pick: Lean Detroit
Toronto Maple Leafs (-170) at Chicago Blackhawks (153)
Pick: Lean Toronto
Vegas Golden Knights (-115) at Dallas Stars (-105)
Pick: Lean Vegas