Degen Show (10/28/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 10/28/21
NFL Week 8 Fantasy
Week 7 Overview
In DFS, I missed out on cashing by a little bit. Robby Anderson and Allen Robinson were my duds. Also did not get the value from Derek Henry for what I spent. Matt Stafford and the Green Bay defense were my highest value picks.
In my PPR league, I lost due to having my primary starting receivers both out. AJ Green and Jarvis Landry could not match my normal output. Add in the Miles Sanders injury and overall misuse as a running back and I was doomed.
QB: Matt Stafford (LAR) – I love Stafford this week against Houston but he’s a bit pricey at $8200. If you can afford him, start him.
RB: James Robinson (JAX) – The Jaguars average 121 rushing yards per game and Robinson is a big part of that. He’s produced in 4 consecutive games and takes on a Seattle defense that is 30th in the league in rushing yards per game at 134 yards per game. Robinson is $8200 at Fanduel.
WR: Diontae Johnson (PIT) – He’s not really lighting it up but if he had a QB that could throw to him, he could be a star. Cleveland does not give up a lot of pass yards but they do give up pass TDs. Hoping Johnson at $7500 can haul in at least one of those.
Flex: D’Andre Swift (RB / DET) – I like Swift at my flex this week. He’s been producing and Philly can be run on. The Lions have a winnable game and reducing Goff’s mistakes might mean running the ball more. $7900 at Fanduel.
TE: C.J. Uzomah (CIN) – Chase was not Burrow’s only target last week. Uzomah is an up and down type player but hoping that at $5700 he’s a value this week against the Jets.
DEF: Buffalo – The Bills are facing a Miami team that struggles to score and put up offense. Buffalo gives up a league best 270 yards per game, second best in 16.3 points allowed per game and also has 2.7 takeaways per game. You can get them for $4700 at Fanduel.
QB: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) – Tua is coming off two good games in a row so might be tempting to take him. But he shredded Jacksonville and Atlanta – losing both games. I don’t think he fairs as well against Buffalo.
RB: NY Jets and Miami – Both the Jets and Miami struggle running the ball and face tough run defenses with Cincinnati and Buffalo. So Michael Carter and Myles Gaskin are sits for me this week for sure.
WR: Calvin Ridley (ATL) – Carolina does well against the pass and Ridley and Matty Ice could be in for a rough week.
QB: Jameis Winston (NO) – Well, I hope good Jameis shows up this week. He’s only $7400 this week and playing a Tampa defense that gives up 264 yards per game in the air. It’s gotten better the past few weeks but that’s against the Patriots, Dolphins, Eagles and Bears. I like Winston to put up some big numbers this week at a value.
RB: Damien Harris (NE) – Harris has had back-to-back big weeks and faces a Chargers team that allows a league worst 162.5 rushing yards per game and 1.3 rushing TDs per game. Harris will only cost you $6900.
WR: Robby Anderson (CAR) – I was wrong with Anderson last week but worth giving him another chance this week against a weak Atlanta secondary. He’s $5700 at Fanduel.
NFL Week 8 Thursday Night Football
Green Bay (3) vs. Arizona (-3)
Spread: Bet $50 Arizona
Total: Lean Over 50
Predicted Score: Green Bay 22 – Arizona 32 (54)
Notes: The storylines in this one are the undefeated Cardinals and the COVID-impacted Packers. The Cardinals are also dealing with the loss of JJ Watt. Not a shock, really, knowing his history with injuries. But still a blow to a defense that has been pretty damn good all year.
Some people will tell you that I am critical of Green Bay because I hate them. I’d like to say that I am critical because they are just an OK team. They are 16th in points scored per game, 23rd in yards per game, and other than a bizarre win over the Bengals, they don’t have a signature win this season.
They do have a very good defense and maybe that puts them into a better position than I give them credit for. But Arizona’s defense is statistically better and their offense is a top 10 offense. I can say that Arizona is a special team. I cannot say the same for Green Bay.
Add into the mix the short week and the COVID issues and I just can’t see how Green Bay keeps up. Did I also mention they are on the road?
$50 bet on the Cardinals.
NYK (1.5) at CHI (-1.5)
Pick: Bet $10 CHI
Total: 214 (Lean Over – 216)
Predicted Score: NYK 105 – CHI 111
Notes: It’s been a long time since the Knicks/Bulls meant something to this league. New York is 3-1 to start the season and the Bulls are a perfect 4-0. Each team has a good mix of young talent and veterans to balance things out. But as much as I like New York and the job Thibs as done, it is Chicago with the most upside.
Zach Lavine looks like he’s progressing and the move away from Markannen to make room for Vucevic seems like the right fit so far. Adding in Lonzo Ball and the offensive assistance by DeMar DeRozan has given this team a well-balanced offense that is not overly reliant on one player.
I like the Bulls to make some noise in the East this year and I like them tonight.
$10 bet on Chicago.
DET (10.5) at PHI (-10.5)
Pick: Lean PHI
Total: 217.5 (Lean Under – 215)
Predicted Score: DET 102 – PHI 113
ATL (-2) at WAS (2)
Pick: Lean WAS
Total: 222 (Lean Over – 238)
Predicted Score: ATL 117 – WAS 121
UTA (-9) at HOU (9)
Pick: Lean HOU
Total: 222.5 (Lean Over – 231)
Predicted Score: UTA 117 – HOU 114
SAS (7) at DAL (-7)
Pick: Lean SAS
Total: 221.5 (Lean Over – 224)
Predicted Score: SAS 109 – DAL 115
MEM (5.5) at GSW (-5.5)
Pick: Lean MEM
Total: 233 (Lean Under – 225)
Predicted Score: MEM 110 – GSW 115
Calgary Flames (107) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-118)
Pick: Bet $10 Pittsburgh
Notes: The Flames have started the season with a winning record but other than Washington, there has not been much competition for them. The Penguins have one of the harder schedules to start the year and are coming off a slaughter at the hands of the former champs.
I like them to bounce back today at home and get the win. $10 bet on the Penguins.
Boston Bruins (112) at Carolina Hurricanes (-124)
Pick: Bet $10 Carolina
Notes: The story for the start of the year for Boston is similar to much of last season: injuries. Forward Nick Foligno was placed on the injured reserve list joining Curtis Lazar and Craig Smith as injured players. Lazar returned yesterday but not sure how much time he will see in a back-to-back.
Boston has it tough by getting Florida and Carolina in back-to-back games. Carolina has yet to be beaten and I don’t think their first loss comes tonight. $10 bet on the Hurricanes.
Buffalo Sabres (117) at Anaheim Ducks (-129)
Pick: Bet $10 Buffalo
Notes: Victor Olofsson’s hot start has been a big reason that the Sabres have been competitive to start the season. The Sabres got a big win over the Lightning three days ago. The Ducks have not found many wins since their surprising start.
I like Buffalo with this plus line here. $10 bet on the Sabres.
Arizona Coyotes (266) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-315)
Pick: Lean Tampa
Colorado Avalanche (-130) at St. Louis Blues (105)
Pick: Lean Colorado
Philadelphia Flyers (100) at Vancouver Canucks (-120)
Pick: Lean Vancouver
Minnesota Wild (-108) at Seattle Kraken (-102)
Pick: Lean Minnesota
Notes: I don’t like the line movement in this one.
Montreal Canadiens (118) at San Jose Sharks (-131)
Pick: Lean Montreal
Winnipeg Jets (-111) at Los Angeles Kings (100)
Pick: Lean Los Angeles