Degen Show (10/5/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 10/5/21
MLB AL Wild Card Game
NYY (-123) at BOS (114)
Pitchers: G. Cole (ERA: 3.27 – Road ERA: 3.33 – Avg. ML: -179) vs. N. Eovaldi (ERA: 3.81 – Home ERA: 3.5 – Avg. ML: -126)
Pick: Bet $10 BOS
Notes: In the end, Major League Baseball got Yankees / Red Sox in a meaningful game. Now, let’s get back into the rewind machine and look at our pre-season predictions. Max here likes to tout his Cardinals and Tampa picks but I’d also like to point out to two teams I was absolutely wrong with.
The first was the San Francisco Giants. Now, I didn’t think they would be an absolute shitshow like Panther did. I just didn’t think they’d be very good. 107 wins later, I admit, I was wrong.
The other team was the Red Sox. And in this case, I did expect the worst. Which means you can thank me, Boston fans, for the success of your team this year. Every time I pick the Red Sox to come in last place, they go on to have a great season.
The last time I did it was 2018. They went on to win the World Series.
Now, I’m not sure they have that kind of ceiling this season. And drawing their nemesis from New York in the play-in, Wild Card game is not an enviable task. The Yankees have the 6th best team ERA over the past 2 weeks. The Red Sox have been middle of the pack all season with their pitching.
The Boston bats were a big reason they are in this game today. But even those have quieted a bit the past few weeks – ranking 20th in runs scored and 13th in batting average.
So why am I taking the Red Sox today? Part of it is value. I’m getting Boston, at home with a plus line. I get it that Gerritt Cole is on the mound for New York but he’s given up 15 runs combined over his last 3 starts and ended September with a 5.13 ERA for the month.
Eovaldi has had some stinkers this season – including his last time against the Yankees where he went 2.2 innings and gave up 7 runs. But other than that game, he has done well against the Yankees all season and should keep Boston in this one.
Neither team has been playing their absolute best baseball lately. Hoping we see it tonight and can enjoy a hell of a game.
$20 bet on the Red Sox.