Degen Show (10/7/21)
Powered by RedCircle
Keep the Lights On Around Here!
Oddsjam is the best odds site on earth. Get the fastest line updates, easily spot positive EV plays and arbitrage opportunities.
Owning a casino isn’t just for billionaires anymore…
Earn profits from Moonbet’s premium blockchain-based online Sportsbook, Casino and eSports betting platform simply by holding MBET tokens.
Visit the Degen shop!
The Degens! App
Grab the Degens App hangout, shoot the breeze and get even more content.
Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 10/7/21
NFL Week 5 Thursday Night Football
LA Rams vs. Seattle
Spread: Bet LA Rams -2.5
Total: Bet Over 54.5 (63)
Predicted Score: LA Rams 35 – Seattle 29
Notes: The Rams are coming off a big division loss at home and have to travel up to Seattle in a short week and take on another division rival. Matt Stafford is 0-3 in his games in Seattle. His last game there was a in 2017 when the Seahawks beat the Lions in the playoffs. That surprised me to find out because, fuck, the Lions made the playoffs?
But he’s in a different situation now. Other than a blip last week, he’s been off to a stellar start in LA – racking up 1200 yards with 11 TDs and 2 INTs. Offensively, the Rams are much improved compared to that shit offense last season. Now its their defense that has regressed a bit – giving up major yards and points against the Bucs and Cardinals.
Seattle got a big win against the Niners last week and avoided starting the season 1-3. But this is still a team that doesn’t look complete. Seattle is dead last in yards allowed and give up 25 points per game.
Which leads me to my first bet in this game. Over. Like way over. I don’t care its short week. I don’t care it’s a division rivalry. Fucking over.
Now for the spread. It bothers me that I have the Rams winning and covering this one. I hate betting on a team I root for. Which has been easy on me lately as a Mets fan. But the Rams are good. I don’t want to admit that. But they are.
So $50 bet on the Rams and $50 bet on the over.
NFL Week 5 Fantasy
Week 4 Fantasy Overview
I did better in DFS this week but still did not place in the money. The Sam Darnold pick was great as were the Jonathan Taylor and Darnell Mooney picks. I whiffed on the Titans’ defense, Chris Carson, Jaylen Waddle, and Travis Kelce.
In my PPR league, I lost by 12 points. Kelce’s bad performance and subpar outing by Thielen were my downfalls.
Dak Prescott (DAL) – OK, so I’m not actually starting Dak, but I love him as a must-start this week. Which, again, is ironic since he’s not a must start for me. Mostly because I love my value QB start. Which I will get to later. But I mean, Dak is having a hell of a year and he should post big numbers against the Giants this week. $8100 at FanDuel makes him the 3rd highest QB of the week.
Derek Henry (TEN) – This one is going to cost you. $10,400 over at FanDuel. Ouch. But I think it’ll be worth it. The Jaguars, surprisingly, do fairly well against the run. But Henry is no normal running back and he likes to shred their defense.
Deandre Hopkins (ARI) – I mean, hard not to pick him with how Murray is playing this season. $7500 isn’t too pricey for his production.
Darren Waller (LV) – Kelce is not available to play this week in my DFS tournament so I’ll go with Waller. I expect a bounce-back week from the Raiders’ offense and Waller to play a big role in that. He’s $7400 at FanDuel.
Tennessee – Well, I was burned by the Titans last week against the Jets. Double fallacy time. It can’t happen in consecutive weeks against the Jaguars.
Justin Fields (CHI) – Nope, not buying it. He gets a good match-up against Vegas – but despite the Monday night loss, I am not buying that Fields can move the ball on the Raiders anywhere close to like Herbert did. Maybe Fields will continue to improve, but I don’t tryst Nagy to get him to that level.
Dolphins Running backs – The Bucs give up 47 rushing yards per game. Nope.
Henry Ruggs III (LV) – I don’t like Ruggs’ matchup against Jaylon Johnson in Chicago.
Robert Tonyan (GB) – Rodgers has so many weapons that Tonyan often gets overlooked. The Bengals can cover the tight end position well – making this an even worse matchup for him.
Taylor Heinicke (WAS) – At $7300, this could be the same sneaky value that Darnold was last week. Heinicke has taken the reigns on this team’s offense and after watching Daniel Jones move the ball on the Saints, Heinicke should as well. The New Orleans’ defense is vulnerable and I like Heinicke to inflict some value-level damage.
Damien Harris (NE) – Houston ranks 28th in yards allowed on the ground and gives up 2 rushing TDs per week. The Patriots need a win and Bill will do what it takes to get there. Including running the ball and exploiting the Texans’ porous rush defense. $6500 on FanDuel.
Speaking of another Damien, I also like Damien Williams of Chicago at $5800. The Raiders give up 132 yards per game on the ground and 1.5 rushing TDs per game.
Jaylen Waddle (MIA) – Maybe I was a week early on Waddle. He gets the Tampa Bay secondary this week. Yes, they have some help as Richard Sherman gets into playing shape again. But he’s worth the $5400 against a team that ranks last in opponents passing yards per game.
CWS (120) at HOU (-130)
Pitchers: L. Lynn (ERA: 2.71 – Road ERA: 2.79 – Avg. ML: -142) vs. L. McCullers Jr. (ERA: 3.22 – Home ERA: 3.57 – Avg. ML: -148)
Pick: Bet $10 CWS
Notes: Houston was once a major favorite to win the World Series. Their luster faded a bit but don’t take them for granted. This is a dangerous team. The problem is they haven’t been playing their best baseball as of late ranking 26th with a .230 batting average and 19th in runs scored over the past few weeks.
Their pitching has been very good – but still not as good as Chicago. The White Sox have also picked up their offense as of late – ranking 2nd in batting average and 12th in runs scored over that same span.
Some of this could be that Houston didn’t need to play hard the past few weeks but sometimes that could impact a team’s opening series. And I banking on them being a bit complacent today and taking an L in game 1.
$10 bet on the White Sox.
BOS (143) at TB (-155)
Pitchers: E. Rodriguez (ERA: 5.15 – Road ERA: 3.98 – Avg. ML: -117) vs. S. McClanahan (ERA: 3.27 – Home ERA: 3.51 – Avg. ML: -135)
Pick: Bet $10 TB
Notes: If you look at team ERA over the season, 8 of the top 10 teams when it comes to ERA made it to the playoffs and the #10 was the Blue Jays – who almost made it. Not going to mention the other team that didn’t make it from the top 10, but I’m sure you can guess who.
The Red Sox also not a top 10 team in ERA this year. Their 4.26 team ERA ranked 15th this year and as of late, it’s not been much better. Tampa was 4th in team ERA this year. The past two weeks? #1 – with a 1.95 team ERA.
And Tampa is not one-sided. Their bats have been hot lately and they look poised for a deep post-season run. Should start today with a win.
$10 bet on the Rays.