Degen Show (10/8/21)
Powered by RedCircle
Keep the Lights On Around Here!
Oddsjam is the best odds site on earth. Get the fastest line updates, easily spot positive EV plays and arbitrage opportunities.
Visit the Degen shop!
The Degens! App
Grab the Degens App hangout, shoot the breeze and get even more content.
Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 10/8/21
CWS (114) at HOU (-123)
Pitchers: L. Giolito (ERA: 3.56 – Road ERA: 3.29 – Avg. ML: -155) vs. F. Valdez (ERA: 3.19 – Home ERA: 3.47 – Avg. ML: -144)
Pick: Bet $10 HOU
Notes: I was on Chicago yesterday and Houston came out and whooped them. So don’t take me fading them today as an overreaction. I still have my questions on the Astros based on recent performance. Maybe yesterday was a sign they have been playing possum the past few weeks.
For Chicago, it’s hard to ignore their fraudulent nature that has chased them all season. This is a talented team that never seemed to hit a stride. Their backs are against the wall today and unfortunate for them, they will find themselves in a 2-0 deficit in this series.
They do have Lucas Giolito on the mound and he’s looked great over his last 3 starts. But Framber Valdez has had a very good season himself – and should put Houston in a position to win today.
$10 bet on the Astros.
ATL (137) at MIL (-149)
Pitchers: C. Morton (ERA: 3.34 – Road ERA: 2.96 – Avg. ML: -135) vs. C. Burnes (ERA: 2.39 – Home ERA: 2.76 – Avg. ML: -147)
Pick: Bet $10 MIL
Notes: This is the series that probably gives me the most concern for an upset. Mostly because I don’t consider the Dodgers an underdog despite them being the road team in that series. But yeah, Atlanta has not been the best team all season and still, here they are with a chance to upset the Brewers in the first round.
Over the last month, the Braves have had the second-best team ERA with 3.05. They are also 8th in the league in runs scored and 12th in batting average in that timespan. The Brewers? 24th in runs scored, last in batting average and 9th in ERA.
Atlanta has definitely played better down the stretch. And they pin game 1 on Charlie fucking Morton who has had a fantastic season and is 7-3 with an ERA of 3.38 and 67 strikeouts in 13 appearances in the postseason in his career.
The Brewers will counter with Corbin Burnes – who has been one of their many aces all season. Milwaukee has the starting pitching advantage in the series, but in game 1, I hate fading Charlie Morton based on his history.
Yet, that is what I plan to do. $10 bet on Milwaukee.
BOS (120) at TB (-131)
Pitchers: C. Sale (ERA: 3.25 – Road ERA: 4.77 – Avg. ML: -199) vs. S. Baz (ERA: 2.18 – Home ERA: 1.76 – Avg. ML: -105)
Pick: Lean BOS
Notes: I hit on Tampa yesterday in a game where the line movement looked off and I won’t double dip today. The rookie, Shane Baz, gets matched up against Chris Sales today and I just cannot get behind the Rays at this line.
I still have them winning but -131 is still too much for me and pairing that up with a dramatic line drop with the money hitting Tampa I am going to call this one a no-play.
A lean on the Red Sox here with the plus line, but really, I think Tampa should win again today.
LAD (-116) at SF (108)
Pitchers: W. Buehler (ERA: 2.49 – Road ERA: 3.13 – Avg. ML: -190) vs. L. Webb (ERA: 3.01 – Home ERA: 2 – Avg. ML: -113)
Pick: Bet $10 SF
Notes: Talk about an unexpected series. The NL West Champion San Francisco Giants will host the Wild Card winning LA Dodgers starting tonight. For the Giants, this is their first playoff appearance since 2016. Two years prior to that they won the championship. Two years prior to that they won the championship. Two years prior to that they won the championship.
Those were all even years. Can they restart their trend in an odd numbered year? I mean, 2020 didn’t really count anyway – right Bubble Champs?
Those Bubble Champs will go out to prove that last year was not a fluke. After squeaking by the Cardinals in the Wild Card game, they toss Walker Buehler on the mound to face off against Logan Webb – who has been sensational at home this season. He is 6-0 with a 1.96 ERA. Players are hitting .174 against him at Oracle Park.
I love how the Giants played down the stretch. #1 in Team ERA the past month and top 5 in both runs scored and batting average. The problem is that the Dodgers weren’t too far behind them in any category during that span and the division came down to 1 game between these 100+ win teams.
Should be a great series but I am banking on the Giants winning the first one here tonight. The plus line is also a nice bonus.
$10 bet on the Giants.