Degen Show (10/9/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 10/9/21
NFL Week 5
NY Jets vs. Atlanta
Spread: Bet $50 Atlanta -3
Total: Bet $50 Under 45 (33)
Predicted Score: NY Jets 12 – Atlanta 21
Notes: The Jets managed an OT win last week to avoid their first ever 0-17 season. Can they nab another this week? Well, they get the equally dreadful Falcons this week. In our preseason totals episode, I picked the Falcons to be under 7.5 wins. But then I started to see progress from them in the preseason and there was hope that they could be competitive.
Nope. They won’t. But they should be able to have enough, in London, to beat the fucking Jets. And to be fair, they have been able to keep up with the Giants and Football Team in their previous two games.
$50 bet on the Falcons and another $50 on the under. I am just not buying that win from the Jets last week.
Philadelphia vs. Carolina
Spread: Bet $50 Carolina -3
Total: Lean Under 46 (45)
Predicted Score: Philadelphia 19 – Carolina 26
Notes: Carolina got beat by Dallas but man, I still like this team. And Sam Darnold has proven to be a pretty damn good quarterback. The Panthers are 2-0 at home so far this season and should provide a lot of problems for Jalen Hurt and the Eagles this week.
After weeks 1 and 2, we thought the Eagles’ defense was going to be good. No. It’s not. And Carolina should be able to score on them. But what’s worse is that this is the best defense the Eagles have had to face all season. The Niners managed to hold Philly to 11 points and I could see Carolina keeping them under 20 points here as well.
$50 bet on the Panthers.
Tennessee vs. Jacksonville
Spread: Bet $50 Tennessee -4.5
Total: Lean Under 49 (43)
Predicted Score: Tennessee 27 – Jacksonville 16
Notes: Much like in the fantasy show where I took the Titans’ defense, I’m betting on them again this week as road favorites because it can’t fucking happen again. Jacksonville is a goddamn mess right now And the Titans will look to stomp on them after losing that close game to the Jets last week.
The Titans should be a bit healthier this week and they also have the best running back in the league here – a dude that loves to run all over the Jaguars defense. Henry ran for 215 yards and 2 TDs on Jacksonville last December and over his career, he’s toasted the Jaguars for 1,013 yards and 11 TDs.
$50 bet on the Titans.
Detroit vs. Minnesota
Spread: Bet $50 Detroit +10
Total: Lean Under 49 (43)
Predicted Score: Detroit 20 – Minnesota 23
Notes: I fucking lost on the Lions last week and goddamn, I might lose on them again this week. I just can’t see this Vikings team blowing them out. Winning? Sure. But 10 fucking points? No goddamn way.
Detroit got out to a big deficit last week due to some sloppy play but I expect them to be a little better this week against another division rival. Jared Goff has played decently and statistically, is not too far off from Kirk Cousins. Which, maybe, is some shade at Cousins. You decide.
The Vikings managed only 7 points last week at home against the Browns. They should get a bit more than that this week – but I just can’t see them covering this one.
$50 bet on the goddamn Lions.
Chicago vs. Las Vegas
Spread: Bet $50 Vegas -5.5
Total: Lean Under 44.5 (43)
Predicted Score: Chicago 16 – Las Vegas 27
Notes: I asked the question last week about what kind of maniac bets on the Raiders 4 times in a row to start a season. Well, how about 5? Yeah, I know, the last 2 have not turned out well. But this is the week!
The Raiders are back home where they are 2-0 and welcome in a shitty-ass Bears team with a rookie QB who I’m not sure has what it takes to be an NFL starting QB. And if he does, well, he does not have the coach to get him there.
That vaunted Bears’ defense has allowed more yards per game than the Raiders so far this season while putting up 155 less yards per game offensively. The Bears put up 24 points last week but I don’t see them doing it again this week.
Derek Carr has a chip on his shoulder after last week’s loss to the Chargers and he will come out with a big game this week. $50 bet on the Raiders.
Cleveland vs. LA Chargers
Spread: Bet $50 Cleveland ML (+120)
Total: Lean Under 47 (44)
Predicted Score: Cleveland 23 – LA Chargers 21
Notes: Speaking of the Chargers, they have a chance to really prove them are the real deal if they can beat the Browns this week. It would then be three quality wins in a row after dropping a close one to the Cowboys in week 2. Honestly, the Chargers could be an undefeated team right now.
But I like the Browns this week to steal a win on the road. They have won 3 games in a row – including a good road win last week – and both their offense and defense are getting the job done. Baker has not looked sensational this season, but he really hasn’t had to. The Browns control the clock and have the best rushing attack in the game.
Herbert will want to go out and try to get a big lead – but the Browns could turn this game into a bit of a slog – and throw the sophomore QB off his rhythm.
I like Cleveland to pull off the upset and will take them on the moneyline +120.
Miami vs. Tampa Bay
Spread: Lean Tampa -10
Total: Lean Over 47.5 (50)
Predicted Score: Miami 16 – Tampa Bay 34
New Orleans vs. Washington
Spread: Lean Washington +2
Total: Lean Over 43.5 (50)
Predicted Score: New Orleans 26 – Washington 24
Denver vs. Pittsburgh
Spread: Lean Denver +1
Total: Lean Under 40 (36)
Predicted Score: Denver 22 – Pittsburgh 14
Green Bay vs. Cincinnati
Spread: Lean Cincinnati +3
Total: Lean Under 50.5 (47)
Predicted Score: Green Bay 25 – Cincinnati 22
New England vs. Houston
Spread: Lean Houston +8.5
Total: Lean Under 40 (37)
Predicted Score: New England 20 – Houston 17
NY Giants vs. Dallas
Spread: Lean Dallas -7
Total: Lean Over 52 (54)
Predicted Score: NY Giants 20 – Dallas 34
San Francisco vs. Arizona
Spread: Lean Arizona -4.5
Total: Lean Over 48.5 (58)
Predicted Score: San Francisco 24 – Arizona 34
Buffalo vs. Kansas City
Spread: Lean Buffalo
Total: Lean Over 56.5 (62)
Predicted Score: Buffalo 33 – Kansas City 29
ATL (113) at MIL (-122)
Pitchers: M. Fried (ERA: 3.11 – Road ERA: 3.14 – Avg. ML: -124) vs. B. Woodruff (ERA: 2.59 – Home ERA: 2.32 – Avg. ML: -137)
Pick: Bet $10 ATL
LAD (-107) at SF (-101)
Pitchers: J. Urias (ERA: 3.1 – Road ERA: 2.75 – Avg. ML: -174) vs. K. Gausman (ERA: 2.83 – Home ERA: 3.46 – Avg. ML: -125)
Pick: Lean SF