Degen Show (11/1/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 11/1/21
Max’s Week 8 Touchdown
Point 1: The Revenge of Winston
Jameis Winston spent most of his career in a Bucs’ uniform. Towards the end, the interceptions racked up under Arians’ offense and they opted to move on and bring in Tom Brady. It worked out well last year and is still working again this year.
But Jameis got some revenge yesterday. He was playing well before a horse collar tackle resulted in a potentially devastating knee injury. So he was not on the field as the Saints upset his former team.
But his spirit was on the field as his replacement, the usual clutch Tom Brady, honored Winston by throwing a critical interception to end the game.
Point 2: Miami was Good Until they Weren’t
There was a good chunk of that Miami/Buffalo game where you got the sense that the Dolphins were going to win. Their defense was frustrating Josh Allen and they were keeping it close. But then the wheels fell off and the Bills ended up winning and covering the spread.
They weren’t the only big favorite that made gamblers sweat. The Rams were up 38-0 when they pulled all of their starters and barely covered over Houston if you bet the game yesterday. If you bet them today at the 16.5, sucks to be you.
Point 3: Dogday Sunday
While some favorites did their thing, some dogs showed up to kills some betting tickets. I already mentioned Tampa so next up is the Jets – who created a bit of a QB controversy as Zach Wilson’s backup – Mike White – led the team to a major upset win over the Bengals. White could be the Kirk Cousins to Wilson’s RGIII if he keeps playing football like he did today.
Let’s also talk about the Patriots who followed up that humiliating win over that same Jets team last week by upsetting the Chargers this week. Mac Jones had a good game and it seems like the Pats are getting better and better each week.
Point 4: Still Winless I’m Detroit
The Lions fucking suck. This was supposed to be the game they could win. But instead they lost to the Eagles 44-6. Which means they still have the edge over the Jags for the #1 picks.
Jacksonville also blew an opportunity at a winnable game as Geno Smith and the Seahawks stomped on them 31-7. Smith was 20/24 for 195 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs with a QBR of 83.9 which was a tad better than Trevor Lawrence who threw the ball 54 times and ended with a QBR of 11.8.
Point 5: Midseason Head Coach Watch
We are almost halfway done with the seasons and there’s some coaches on the hotseat for sure.
Brian Flores looked like a lock for Miami after last season but the regression of this team has been tremendous. And Tua has not made the progress he needs to in order to be an NFL starting QB.
Matt Nagy could beat him to the punch after a blowout loss to the Niners. Justin Fields looks amazing as a running back – shredding San Francisco’s defense for 103 yards and a TD. As a QB? He was OK. But his poor play could be a reflection on his coach and ownership might want to act soon before it’s too late to save Fields.
Another coach who could be looking for a new job is Mike Zimmer. After losing to the Dak-less Cowboys on a last second TD, Zimmer’s Vikings sit at 3-4. They could still make the playoffs so perhaps a coaching change could get them on track to play to their potential.
Point 6: Brown Out
The Browns lost to the Steelers and their only good news of the day was that the Bengals shit the bed against the Jets and didn’t go another game up.
But Cleveland is in trouble. At 4-4 at the midway point they cannot afford to lose winnable games. And that was a winnable game. Their inability to punch the ball into the end zone was a big problem yesterday. They actually made the Steelers defense look like it was the Steelers’ defense of old.
Baker didn’t seem too impacted by his injury but once again he was held without a throwing TD. If Cleveland is to get into the playoffs he’s going to need to get better connections with his supposed star receivers.
Extra Point: Remember the Titans
Tennessee is an odd team. But sometimes odd teams need to still be feared. The Colts did everything they could to stop Derek Henry and it looked like they were on the verge of a win. But Tennessee got the big stops and created some turnovers late in the game to force OT.
The Titans are in complete control of the AFC South and look like the one team to compete with the Bills. Unless KC gets their heads out of their asses starting with tonight’s game.
NFL Week 8 Monday Night Football
Sports Bet Picks for 11/1/21
NY Giants (10.5) vs. Kansas City (-10.5)
Spread: Lean NY Giants
Total: Lean Under
Predicted Score: NY Giants 20 – Kansas City 28 (48)
Notes: The term “must-win” gets tossed around so much that it becomes meaningless. Yet, this is a must-win for the Chiefs. KC sits at 3-4 and it would be pretty catastrophic if they lost at home, on Monday night to the Giants and dropped to 3-5.
Each team were on a side of a blowout last week. The Chiefs scored only 3 points in a loss to the Titans last week while the Giants dominated the Panthers to get their second win of the season. Can they get their third this week? Probably not. But until KC shows they can get their offense back on track, I cannot trust them with a double-digit spread against any team.
But it’s not the Texans. It’s the Giants. They got better in the second half of last season and maybe they are on the cusp of turning things around. Daniel Jones is coming off a pretty solid outing and he continues to also make defenses pull their hair out with his ability to run the ball. KC’s D will have their hands full today for sure.
Ultimately, I think KC gets the win. I just can’t get them to cover. A lean on the Giants.
CLE (4.5) at CHA (-4.5)
Pick: Bet $10 CLE
Total: 222.5 (Lean Under – 215)
Predicted Score: CLE 108 – CHA 107
Notes: Cleveland is playing their 5th road game in a row and it must be wearing on them. They have had a brutal weekend having to take on the Lakers and the Suns. But they still look like a team on the rise – despite those losses.
Charlotte is another team to keep an eye out on. They have started the season strong and will continue to improve as Ball gets more NBA minutes. For tonight though, I like Cleveland to keep it close and maybe even win. $10 bet on the Cavs.
TOR (6.5) at NYK (-6.5)
Pick: $20 ML NYK (-246)
Total: 211 (Lean Over – 216)
Predicted Score: TOR 106 – NYK 110
Notes: When Zion was drafted #1, Knicks fans groaned as it appeared they lost out on a superstar and had to settle for RJ Barrett. Well, the Knicks might be getting the last laugh. Zion has been injured and now seems to be dealing with massive weight issues. Barrett continues to progress under Thibs’ guidance.
The Knicks are a team to beat in the East. Yet, I am still wary with betting them on covering big spreads. So in this one, I will bet them to just win. $20 moneyline bet on the Knicks.
ORL (9) at MIN (-9)
Pick: Bet $10 ORL
Total: 216 (Lean Under – 214)
Predicted Score: ORL 104 – MIN 110
Notes: Orlando might be losing games but they are looking competitive in doing so. As for Minnesota, they are a team I still don’t understand. They look like a legit team one night and the same old T-Wolves the next.
Which makes this line just too much for me. Orlando should be able to keep this one close. $10 bet on the Magic.
CHI (2.5) at BOS (-2.5)
Pick: Lean CHI
Total: 217.5 (Lean Over – 223)
Predicted Score: CHI 115 – BOS 108
SAS (3) at IND (-3)
Pick: Lean SAS
Total: 218.5 (Lean OVer – 229)
Predicted Score: SAS 114 – IND 115
POR (6) at PHI (-6)
Pick: Lean POR
Total: 220.5 (Lean Under – 217)
Predicted Score: POR 106 – PHI 111
WAS (5.5) at ATL (-5.5)
Pick: Lean WAS
Total: 221 (Lean Over – 231)
Predicted Score: WAS 114 – ATL 117
DEN (1.5) at MEM (-1.5)
Pick: Lean DEN
Total: 215.5 (Lean Over – 221)
Predicted Score: DEN 110 – MEM 111
OKC (11) at LAC (-11)
Pick: Lean LAC
Total: 212 (Lean Over – 214)
Predicted Score: OKC 100 – LAC 114
Washington Capitals (127) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-141)
Pick: Bet $10 Washington
Notes: Tampa Bay has had a bit of trouble at home early in the season and the Capitals are one of the league’s best teams at the moment. So getting Washington with a plus line is definitely something I am keen on jumping on.
Somehow, Alex Ovechkin continues to produce offense. He’s got 9 goals and 6 assists already and trails only Connor McDavid as the points leader.
The last time these teams played the Lightning snuck out a close win. I think Washington gets the win today. $10 bet on the Capitals.
Ottawa Senators (111) at Chicago Blackhawks (-123)
Pick: Lean Ottawa
Seattle Kraken (193) at Edmonton Oilers (-218)
Pick: Lean Edmonton