Degen Show (11/10/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 11/10/21
OKC (4) at NOP (-4)
Pick: Bet $10 OKC ML
Total: 211.5 (Lean Under – 208)
Predicted Score: OKC 105 – NOP 103
Notes: The Pelicans are 1-10 this season including 0-4 at home. Injuries have been an issue but its still even hard to believe that with Ingram and Zion that this team would be a good one. Better than 1-10, maybe, but not good.
The Thunder are a young team with potential for the future. This season is a wash but I still see some competitive basketball being played. They have won 2 in a row and appear to be the Lakers’ biggest issue this season not named LeBron’s ab injury or Russell Westbrook.
I like Westbrook’s former team – the team not named the Wizards or Rockets – to get the win today. $10 moneyline bet on the Thunder.
DAL (3.5) at CHI (-3.5)
Pick: Bet $10 CHI ML
Total: 213 (Lean Under – 208)
Predicted Score: DAL 101 – CHI 107
Notes: After a slow start, the Mavs have won 4 of 5 games and Luka is looking like an early season MVP. He’s averaging team highs in points, rebounds and assists. Which speaks to both his greatness but also the lack of help he has on that team.
Chicago, on the other hand, is a loaded team. The more I see them play the more I worry about them. Having DeRozan waste away in San Antonio the past few years made me forget how dynamic of a player he was on the Raptors. He’s playing with joy once again as he’s surrounded by a deep squad of basketball talent and playing offense the way that works best for him.
I like him and the Bulls to get the win today. $10 bet on Chicago.
MIN (7) at GSW (-7)
Pick: Bet $25 ML GSW
Total: 222 (Lean Under – 217)
Predicted Score: MIN 103 – GSW 114
Notes: The Warriors are 9-1 to start the year. They rank #1 in effective field goal percentage, 5th in offensive efficiency and 1st in defensive efficiency. Steph Curry reminds us on a game-to-game basis of how dangerous a scorer he can be. Like really, dangerous. Not “James Harden leaning into defenders to get cheap points” dangerous. But legit dangerous.
The T-Wolves have lost 5 in a row after starting the season with some promise. I cannot foresee them getting close to a win today. I could bet the Warriors say, minus 10 on an alt line. But I’ll just bet the moneyline.
$25 bet on Golden State with the moneyline.
TOR (2) at BOS (-2)
Pick: Lean TOR
Total: 210 (Lean Over – 214)
Predicted Score: TOR 110 – BOS 104
Notes: I should be betting the Toronto moneyline here. They are 4-0 on the road and Boston is 0-3 at home. I just can’t see the Celtics losing this one despite all of my metrics.
WAS (-3.5) at CLE (3.5)
Pick: Lean CLE
Total: 211.5 (Lean Over – 215)
Predicted Score: WAS 108 – CLE 107
BKN (-9.5) at ORL (9.5)
Pick: Lean ORL
Total: 210.5 (Lean Under – 205)
Predicted Score: BKN 104 – ORL 101
MIL (3) at NYK (-3)
Pick: Lean MIL
Total: 215.5 (Lean Under – 213)
Predicted Score: MIL 108 – NYK 105
DET (1.5) at HOU (-1.5)
Pick: Lean DET
Total: 210.5 (Lean Over – 211)
Predicted Score: DET 107 – HOU 104
CHA (4.5) at MEM (-4.5)
Pick: Lean CHA
Total: 228 (Lean Under – 225)
Predicted Score: CHA 111 – MEM 114
SAC (1) at SAS (-1)
Pick: Lean SAC
Total: 220 (Lean Under – 220)
Predicted Score: SAC 111 – SAS 109
POR (6.5) at PHX (-6.5)
Pick: Lean POR
Total: 220.5 (Lean Under – 219)
Predicted Score: POR 107 – PHX 112
IND (-2.5) at DEN (2.5)
Pick: Lean DEN
Total: 213.5 (Lean Under – 203)
Predicted Score: IND 98 – DEN 105
Notes: Jokic is suspended for this game.
MIA (-4.5) at LAL (4.5)
Pick: Lean LAL
Total: 214.5 (Lean Over – 218)
Predicted Score: MIA 110 – LAL 108
Nashville Predators (125) at Dallas Stars (-145)
Pick: Bet $10 Nashville
Notes: Nashville is an odd team. They have a winning record but they don’t feel like a winning team. Their goal differential is -1 and they rank 19th in expected goals for. When they win, its close. And that loss to the Blackhawks the other day is fresh in memory.
As for Dallas, things are a bit bleaker. Other than an upset win over Calgary this past week, this is a team that forgot how to play defense. The value here is definitely on Nashville.
$10 bet on the Predators.
Minnesota Wild (-205) at Arizona Coyotes (165)
Pick: Bet $10 Minnesota
Notes: Arizona got their first win of the season. Can they make it two in a row? Probably not. That said this is a bit of a risk betting this much money on a Wild team that has a +1 goal differential on the season. Part of that was suffering some big losses to the Avalanche and Kraken the past week.
Still, they should go on the road – where they are 4-2 this season – and prevent the Coyotes from their second win. $10 bet on the Wild.
Toronto Maple Leafs (-130) at Philadelphia Flyers (110)
Pick: Lean Toronto