Degen Show (11/11/21)
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Max’s Sports Bet Picks for 11/11/21
NFL Week 10 Fantasy
Week 9 Recap
Not so good Al. My DFS got wrecked because of Joe Burrow shitting the bed and Chase Edmond getting injured. My PPR league also suffered from the loss of Chase Edmond but also an off performance by Matt Stafford
QB: Tom Brady (TB – $8300 FD) – Tom Brady is facing a Washington defense that ranks last in opponent’s passing yards per game and second to last in opponent’s pass TDs per game. Brady should be in for a big day this week.
WR: Keenan Allen (LAC – $7200 FD) – Keenan Allen has had two great consecutive games and is facing a Minnesota secondary that can be thrown on.
WR: Stefon Diggs (BUF – $7900 FD) – Diggs has had a so-so season but has a chance for a big game this week against a putrid Jets’ secondary.
RB: Ezekiel Elliott (DAL – $8000 FD) – Atlanta ranks 24th in opponent’s rushing yards per game this season but that drops to 29th over the past 3 games. Dallas will want to bounce back and get a win and if Dak is still not 100%, expect Zeke to get the ball a lot.
DEF: Pittsburgh ($4900 FD) – I had another defense locked in here but found myself with an extra $500. So I splurged on the Steelers defense this week instead. The Steelers will take on a terrible Lions team that is 29th in points per game this year at 16.8 points per game. That’s down to 12 points per game the past 3 games.
QB: Kyler Murray (ARZ – $8300 FD) – Carolina is not a very good team but their pass defense is legit. Murray is still dealing with some injuries and as the third highest QB this week at FanDuel, I’d avoid.
RB: Damien Harris (NE – $6300 FD) – Harris has been on a downward trend the past two weeks and is dealing with a concussion. The Browns rank 3rd in opponent’s rushing yards allowed per game at 84.8 yards. Tough matchup and uncertainty with Harris this week.
WR: Jarvis Landry (CLE – $6100 FD) – Landry is banged up and facing a tough New England pass defense. Baker is coming off a good week but has not been great all season. New England can be run on so I imagine that will be the Browns’ gameplan – leaving Landry as a risky start.
QB: Matt Ryan (ATL – $7300 FD) – Matt Ryan had a hell of a game last week against New Orleans and faces a Dallas defense that can be thrown on. Just ask Teddy Bridgewater. Matty Ice could give some good value if you need to save a few bucks.
RB: Alexander Mattison (MIN – $6100 FD) – After news broke about Dalvin Cook, I swiped Mattison off waivers. He could be a value play this week. It does seem like Cook will play but who knows with the NFL and their policies. Either way, Mattison could see some action against a Chargers’ defense that gives up a league worst 161 yards on the ground per game.
WR: Jerry Jeudy (DEN – $6200 FD) – Denver saw some production last week against a weak Dallas defense. Philly is a tougher defense but gave up 356 yards in the air last week. Now granted, that was the Chargers but Bridgewater is a solid QB and he seems to be targeting Jeudy since he’s come back from injury.
TE: Dan Arnold (JAC – $5100 FD) – Not in love any TE this week so I’ll take a flyer on Dan Arnold. He’s had two decent weeks in a row and takes on a Colts’ defense that gives up touchdowns in the air.
DEF: Tampa Bay ($4400 FD) – Tampa was my original selection and still is a damn good option against Washington.
NFL Week 10 Thursday Night Football
Baltimore (-7) vs. Miami (7)
Spread: $50 bet Baltimore
Total: Lean Under 46.5
Predicted Score: Baltimore 29 – Miami 15 (44)
Notes: The Dolphins got their second win of the season by taking down the Texans last week. But Tua is still banged up and listed as questionable for tonight’s game. The Ravens are coming off a come-from-behind win over the Vikings in OT last week.
This is an odd team in that they are good and at 6-2 they have the wins to show that. But there is still something off about them.
I think part of that is there defense is nowhere near as good as its been in the past. And while they lead the league in time of possession and have gotten better in recent weeks – they are not scoring at the same dynamic rate as previous seasons when they have the ball.
Still, I have them winning this game by double digits. And I think they handle business today – despite some ATS gaffes this year. So a $50 bet on the Ravens.
TOR (2) at PHI (-2)
Pick: Lean PHI
Total: 213.5 (Lean Under – 209)
Predicted Score: TOR 103 – PHI 106
Notes: Toronto’s play has leveled off lately and last night’s showing against the Celtics was indicative of that. That was their first road loss and they do get a chance against a banged-up Philly team tonight but I still like the Sixers.
My issue is that there is too much uncertainty over who is playing for Philly. I am fine to bet them without Embiid but not knowing what combo of Curry, Thybule and Harris will suit up is too much for be to risk it.
Leaning the Sixers.
IND (9) at UTA (-9)
Pick: Lean IND
Total: 219 (Lean Under – 211)
Predicted Score: IND 103 – UTA 108
Notes: I do have the Jazz winning this game but my implied probability is not high enough to risk such a huge moneyline bet. Utah is 4-0 and should improve to 5-0 – especially against the 1-6 on the road Pacers. I’d just need to cough up too much money to make this worth it.
A lean on the Pacers with the points.
MIA (2.5) at LAC (-2.5)
Pick: $10 ML bet LAC
Total: 214.5 (Lean Over – 218)
Predicted Score: MIA 108 – LAC 110
Notes: The Clippers have won 5 games in a row and now granted, the competition has not been stellar, but they have been easily handling the lesser teams. Their last two wins – over Charlotte and Portland – saw 6 players score double-digits.
So while I stand by my comment that Paul George is playing at an MVP level, I think in need to retract that he doesn’t have help.
Batum, Jackson, Bledsoe and Kennard are all chipping in great contributions to make this team a well-balanced offense. But it’s the defense that is really impressive. They rank 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency and 5th in opponent’s effective field goal %.
Miami is one of the better offensive teams but that centers around Jimmy Butler – who left last night’s game hobbled with an ankle injury. I have this as a close one and in theory my implied probability is slightly below what I am paying for the moneyline, but I’ll do it on the hope Butler does not play or is limited.
$10 ML bet on the Clippers.
New York Islanders (-135) at New Jersey Devils (115)
Pick: Bet $10 New Jersey
Notes: The Devils have won 2 in a row after handling the mighty Panthers a few days ago. They’ve managed to play much better at The Rock and host a homeless Islanders team that hasn’t completely shit the bed on their season-starting road trip.
The Islanders haven’t played in 4 days – a loss to the Wild in Minnesota. So they should be rested. But I think there is some value betting the Devils at home with the plus line. $10 bet on New Jersey.
Florida Panthers (-120) at Pittsburgh Penguins (100)
Pick: Bet $10 Florida
Notes: The Panthers started off the season looking unbeatable until, well, they got beat. Two games in a row. But there’s so much to like about this team. Their offense is great – led by Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau the Panthers rank 3rd in expected goals for and 1st in goals for.
The Penguins are still playing without Crosby and Malkin but have managed to hold their own due to some good play by Tristan Jarry in goal. The problem is that the Panthers should have Bobrovsky in goal tonight – which should limit the Penguins’ offense.
$10 bet on Florida.
Calgary Flames (-140) at Montreal Canadiens (120)
Pick: Bet $10 Calgary
Notes: The thesis statement of this game is simple. Montreal cannot score goals. They are 31st in goals scored per game – only better than the Coyotes. This should balance out at some point since their expected goals ranks 14th in the league. But for now, its looking kind of bleak.
The Flames hot start looks to be legit too. Calgary ranks 6th in expected goals and 6th in goals per game. Jacob Markstrom has been solid in goal and while Calgary has not had the best of weeks, his play should help with them getting a win today.
$10 bet on the Flames.
Edmonton Oilers (125) at Boston Bruins (-145)
Pick: Lean Edmonton
Los Angeles Kings (-110) at Ottawa Senators (-110)
Pick: Lean Los Angeles
Washington Capitals (-145) at Detroit Red Wings (120)
Pick: Lean Washington
Nashville Predators (150) at St. Louis Blues (-175)
Pick: Lean St. Louis
San Jose Sharks (155) at Winnipeg Jets (-185)
Pick: Lean Winnipeg
Vancouver Canucks (150) at Colorado Avalanche (-170)
Pick: Lean Colorado
Minnesota Wild (-105) at Vegas Golden Knights (-115)
Pick: Lean Minnesota
Anaheim Ducks (150) at Seattle Kraken (-175)
Pick: Lean Seattle